Tuesday, November 13, 2007

AMD asset lite strategy overview

First, this is not based on any AMD internal document, but my strategic analysis of the situation.
AMD's goal is to take market share at an accelerated rate and with minimum investment. The asset lite strategy has the following key elements.

1) Use foundry capacity for mass production of low end desktop and mobile CPUs. These products have very low margin, it is not worth the investment of expensive tools to produce them. AMD's plan is to outsource the production of these CPUs to TSMC and Chartered. Everyone will be laughing, except Intel. TSMC and Chartered are expected to crank out 30 million K10 X2 and X3 CPUs per quarter, selling at the ASP of $55, with $2 profit each. Of course, AMD's GPU production is already asset lite. TSMC will be involved in the production of Fusion core, driving the PC cost even lower.

2) Use AMD FABs for high margin production. Using APM, Immersion lithography, SOI, exotic processes, AMD will produce high end server, desktop and mobile CPUs in its own FABs. These are the money makers and Intel fraggers.

3) Use Intel FABs for free after 2009. A jury is expected to award AMD $69 billion in treble damages. Intel won't have enough cash, and will have to pay the award with FABs.

4) Intel will have to spend more and more cash on expensive equipment, which leaves little for AMD to collect for judgment.

41 Comments:

Blogger Evil_Merlin said...

Sharidouche lies.

He can't even tell the truth about the top 10 supercomputers. Which by the way, 3 of the top 5 are Intel based. Two of which are new systems which pushed AMD systems further down the list one of which was forced off the top 10...

9:17 PM, November 13, 2007  
Blogger terry said...

intel fanboys have fucked up brains

can't believe that intel products is a whole junk with super power ads

9:32 PM, November 13, 2007  
Blogger Evil_Merlin said...

At least Intel fanboi's can speak proper English.

Go back to school you little prick

9:41 PM, November 13, 2007  
Blogger terry said...

introducing the new intel marketing blurbs:-

"intel's 45nm hafnium-infused process technology"

new super power sounded so goood...

but still core 2 junk

9:44 PM, November 13, 2007  
Blogger terry said...

before comment on other people mistakes, please mind your own mistake first.

sir, fanboi's should be spelled "fanboy's". TQ

9:49 PM, November 13, 2007  
Blogger Evil_Merlin said...

Actually its fanboi you moron:

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=fanboi

Funny thing, that so called junk that is the C2D and its new Penryn offshoots, hand AMD's latest and greatest (which is still having issues getting to 65um properly) its ass. Its almost as if AMD isn't even trying.

10:06 PM, November 13, 2007  
Blogger Ho Ho said...

"Use foundry capacity for mass production of low end desktop and mobile CPUs. These products have very low margin, it is not worth the investment of expensive tools to produce them"

So they will drive up their low-end CPU prices. An area where most of the revenue is made. I would call that suicide instead of asset-lite.

10:31 PM, November 13, 2007  
Blogger Unknown said...

Using APM, Immersion lithography, SOI, exotic processes, AMD will produce high end server, desktop and mobile CPUs in its own FABs. These are the money makers and Intel fraggers.

AMD is already using all of the above - aside from Immersion lithography which is 45nm. AMD can't even supply enough 1.9Ghz Barcelona CPUs to tier one vendors like IBM!


intel fanboys have fucked up brains

As oppposed to AMD fanbois like terry and copyandpasteexpert who don't have a brain at all.

$69BN? AMD would be lucky to get $69 from Intel. After the jury sees the idiots that are running AMD they'll realize that AMD's recent losses are all due to their own mistakes. (i.e. only having FAB30 running when demand for their CPUs was high, then complaining that it's because of Intel's monopolistic tactics that AMD couldn't gain more market share!)

AMD BK Q2'08.

11:57 PM, November 13, 2007  
Blogger Unknown said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

12:27 AM, November 14, 2007  
Blogger Unknown said...

---yawn---

I knew there'd be another assclown like Terry on this blog or rather Sharikook alias.

Now that $1000 Penryns are out, not much to do other than wait for Intel Q4 earnings.

Went to the Mercedes dealership yesterday. I love the new C class but my wife says go for the E class. Why not?

12:33 AM, November 14, 2007  
Blogger pointer said...

I tried not to comment on dumb post, but can't resist:)

TSMC and Chartered are expected to crank out 30 million K10 X2 and X3 CPUs per quarter,

mmm, their will be specializd in producing bad cores so that they solely produce X3 instead of all-core-working X4? :)

3:59 AM, November 14, 2007  
Blogger Chuckula said...

Alright sharidouche: Let's look at AMD's profit light strategy:

1. You are admitting that AMD can't manufacture chips. What's even funnier is you say "low end" production will be outsourced: Isn't that every AMD product at this point?

2. AMD Fabs for high margin: Why did you use the plural there, at best AMD has 1 operational FAB right now while the other one sits around being a huge money pit. If AMD is lucky the Germans will allows TSMC to buy it.

3. What a crock of shit. That statement shows that you are not only delusional, but a fucking idiot as well. I still find it extremely amusing that even though you think you are promoting AMD with that lie that you are actually admitting Intel's FAB's are superior to AMDs and that AMD's main strategy is to steal that which it is incapable of producing on its own.

Now onto something real from your good "30000 3dMark" friends over at the Inquirer:
Restrictions and limitations like this are a throwback to a bygone era when hardware launches were mere PR exercises and hardware enthusiast websites were delighted just to be bought a plane ticket. Any website worth reading will be getting in independent hardware for launch and shunning ATI's spin-fest if they have any regard for their readers whatsoever.

No doubt ATI will spin this event as a "preview", an "initial look" that it is generously providing at this hardware, pointing out that no-one "has" to come. But the bottom line is this - spinners are scared of what independent benchmark results will show, and are bottling a proper launch. Bad form, chaps. µ


Yeah, that's the phenom launch. AMD is so confident that it will not give out early samples that reviewers can actually test! The review sites all had Penryn parts MONTHS ahead of the launch, and Intel couldn't stop them from benchmarking even if it wanted to! Meanwhile we are officially 5 days from the Phenom/3800 launch and AMD is obviously trying to stop the truth from coming out in any way it can.

5:49 AM, November 14, 2007  
Blogger Aguia said...

The review sites all had Penryn parts MONTHS ahead of the launch, and Intel couldn't stop them from benchmarking even if it wanted to!

Besides being ES and besides making your statement sound like Intel paper launched them a lot of months sooner looks pretty dumb and you seem to forgot they benchmarked what Intel wanted.

Tell me if AMD send ES of Barcelona for all to review in April and actually launched them in September with low availability what would you say?

6:27 AM, November 14, 2007  
Blogger doorknob_dan said...

Dear Chuckula,

1. You are admitting that AMD can't manufacture chips. What's even funnier is you say "low end" production will be outsourced: Isn't that every AMD product at this point?

I cracked up when I read this. Thanks for brightening up my morning! (With truisms.)

6:52 AM, November 14, 2007  
Blogger Chuckula said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

6:54 AM, November 14, 2007  
Blogger Chuckula said...

Aquia: I'm assuming by the abject idiocy of that statement that you are not a real person, but YASP (Yet Another Sharikou Personality).

Were the chips out in the wild ES samples? Of course they were, Intel hadn't launched them yet you fucking idiot. However, you are wrong in every conceivable way:

1. These chips were out WITHOUT Intel's permission, how do you think anandtech was able to post this article in August without ANY strings attached from Intel? They had a chip that Intel did NOT approve to go out, but the chips were already so damn good that Anand gave more qualified benchmarks in AUGUST than any website on the Internet has about these piece of shit Phenoms 5 days before the fucking things are supposed to "launch".

2. Unlike AMD where the "ES" samples are the only ones that can (supposedly) compete with Intel systems that have been generally available for a year, the production Intel chips are BETTER than the early ES samples. I'm not even going to bother posting the dozens of independent reviewers that took production Yorkfields north of 4Ghz on air, you are too fucking stupid to read anyway.

3. Intel did not do a paper launch in August you useless fuck. A paper launch is what AMD will do in 5 days when they have major press conferences proclaiming their new chips that nobody will be able to actually buy. See Sept. 10 for the K10 launch for a great example. Mother-fucking IBM can't even get enough chips for a limited K10 launch over 2 months after AMD anounced!

4. You do realize that when you make this comment: you seem to forgot they benchmarked what Intel wanted. Yeah you fucking moron, they benchmarked chips that were massively SLOWER than the ones Intel is churning out in massive quantities even as I type. EVEN THOSE SLOW PROTOTYPES BEAT THE SHIT OUT OF PRODUCT"S AMD CAN'T EVEN SHIP. This is like saying AMD is superior because they don't let anyone see their chips when those chips suck balls, while Intel is inferior because they actually let independent parties evaluate their chips. Since Intel has nothing to be ashamed of (unlike AMD) it makes perfect sense for Intel to WANT independent reviewers to test the chips.

You are such a fucking tool. I'm willing to bet that if Hector Ruiz told you to douse yourself in gasoline and light yourself on fire you'd do it unthinkingly and without question. "The sad truth is that if Hector did that it would probably be the first productive thing he's done since he took over AMD.

7:01 AM, November 14, 2007  
Blogger Aguia said...

Chucktrola,
Tell me again what’s the advantage of previewing a product much sooner?
Then paper launch it much latter.
With very low availability in the following 6 months...
If you can’t answer that then we know who is the idiot here.
And if anandtech did review the CPU without Intel permissions, than you don’t know what a NDA is and the consequences of breaking it.

Yes I’m so stupid that I waste my time reading stupid things like yours.
And I’m pretty sure you buy Intel products just because they are not from AMD, and that’s called fanatic boy or MADboy.

7:22 AM, November 14, 2007  
Blogger Ho Ho said...

"Tell me again what’s the advantage of previewing a product much sooner?"

You know what performance to expect form a product and you can make your buying decisions before the product is out. E.g had Phenom results been shown a week ago and if it was superior to Penryn there might have been a few people who would have waited a bit and got it instead of Penryn.


"Then paper launch it much latter."

What exactly has been paperlaunched by Intel during the last few years? If Barcelona wasn't a paperlaunch then Intel has never paperlaunhed a thing.


"With very low availability in the following 6 months..."

Again, make a list.


"And if anandtech did review the CPU without Intel permissions, than you don’t know what a NDA is and the consequences of breaking it."

You can break NDA only if you have signed one. What makes you think Anandtech had to write NDA when it received those chips?

8:43 AM, November 14, 2007  
Blogger oneexpert said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

8:56 AM, November 14, 2007  
Blogger oneexpert said...

Daily Deals:AMD Dual Core Drops Below $50!

Theres no need to settle for off brand relic, antique, pemtium 3 glue up cpus when you can get a name brand superior design AMD dual core cpu for so little.

AMD Athlon 64 X2 3800+ Windsor 2.0GHz Socket AM2 35W Processor Model ADD3800IAA5CU - OEM
AMDs AM2 35 WATT ENERGY SAVER
for a mere $59.99 at Newegg.
Designs so good that intel is going to copy cat AMD and abandon the penyawn for the superior AMD designs.
Whether its single core or dual core, tri core or quad core you just cant beat AMD super value hi performance designs.

intel is disparate to stop there market share loses to AMD.

penyawn pentium 3s are no competition for the AMD barcelonas and phenoms.

AMDs pricing advantage is crushing intel profits.

Wal-Mart's $200 PC - sold out

About two weeks ago, Wal-Mart began selling $200 Linux-based PC. The initial run was around 10,000 units. Now Wal-Mart is sold out. Has Linux now found a niche?
Now even Walmart is out performing intel at selling enough cpus per minute to make intel look like real slackers.
By the time intel brings out its dusty diamond platform the emerging market will have been saturated by Walmart and AMD, VIA, and IBM.

BUY AMD hi performance, energy saving, low cost, future proof cpus, platforms, and video solutions.

9:00 AM, November 14, 2007  
Blogger Ho Ho said...

"Whether its single core or dual core, tri core or quad core you just cant beat AMD super value hi performance designs."

Yes you can, that $200 PC uses VIA CPU, not AMD

9:25 AM, November 14, 2007  
Blogger Unknown said...


Theres no need to settle for off brand relic, antique, pemtium 3 glue up cpus when you can get a name brand superior design AMD dual core cpu for so little.


Why do you suppose they cost so little? Because they're as slow as shit, that's why. AMD's fastest dual core is left to compete with 2.33ghz Intel dual core.


Designs so good that intel is going to copy cat AMD and abandon the penyawn for the superior AMD designs.


Why would Intel copy AMD's slow designs?

AMDs pricing advantage is crushing intel profits.

Is that why Intel profits were up 65% to $1.9bn last quarter?


Whether its single core or dual core, tri core or quad core you just cant beat AMD super value hi performance designs.


Let me know when AMD decides to release Triple Cripple Taliban CPUs, or when I can actually buy a quad core Barcelona server from someone like IBM or Dell.



penyawn pentium 3s are no competition for the AMD barcelonas and phenoms.


Explain these test results then:

http://www.hardwarezone.com/articles/view.php?id=2411&cid=2&pg=1

AMD is slower even if Spec FP rate tests! AMD uses more power while providing less performance.


WE SHOULD ALL HELP INTEL SAVE OUR PLANET BY BUYING THESE EARTH-FRIENDLY LEAD-FREE CPUS. THESE GREEN ENVIRONMENTALLY FREIDNLY CPUS ARE FABBED RIGHT HERE IN THE USA IN THE MOST GREEN, EFFICIENT FAB ever, FAB32 in Arizona. Don't buy AMD CPUs that are full of lead and other dangerous materials that are bad for the environment.

BUY Intel hi performance, energy saving, low cost, state of the art, cpus, platforms, and video solutions.

9:26 AM, November 14, 2007  
Blogger oneexpert said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

9:33 AM, November 14, 2007  
Blogger oneexpert said...

Wal-Mart's $200 PC - sold out...penyawn killer

About two weeks ago, Wal-Mart began selling $200 Linux-based PC. The initial run was around 10,000 units. Now Wal-Mart is sold out. Has Linux now found a niche?
Now even Walmart is out performing intel at selling enough cpus per minute to make intels sales look lame.
By the time intel brings out its dusty diamondville platform the emerging market will have been saturated by Walmart and AMD, VIA, and IBM.

10,000 in less than two weeks,
Thats 714 computers a day with cpu.
Thats 30 computers per hour or 1 computer sold every 2 minutes.
If Walmart had enough everex tc2502 VIA C7s they could sell 260,000 units at walmart alone per year.
Clearly AMD, VIA, and IBM are the new industry sales leaders.
Clearly VIAs C7 is outselling penyawn and VIA is fabless.

BUY AMD hi performance, energy saving, low cost, future proof cpus, platforms, and video solutions.

9:35 AM, November 14, 2007  
Blogger Ho Ho said...

"Thats 30 computers per hour or 1 computer sold every 2 minutes."

Didn't Intel produce >100M CPUs last year? That would be around 75 CPUs per second.

9:37 AM, November 14, 2007  
Blogger oneexpert said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

9:46 AM, November 14, 2007  
Blogger terry said...

who cares...

hv a computer are useful, can do work with it

but, intel processor alone can do nothing

9:50 AM, November 14, 2007  
Blogger terry said...

although amd process are late, they stil manage to come out with awesome processor.

amd k10 2ghz equals to intel penryn 3ghz

intel people realise the truth and posted it on their website

9:56 AM, November 14, 2007  
Blogger Aguia said...

ho ho,
You know what performance to expect form a product and you can make your buying decisions before the product is out. E.g had Phenom results been shown a week ago and if it was superior to Penryn there might have been a few people who would have waited a bit and got it instead of Penryn.

Ok. Let’s assume intel sends nehalem for everyone for review tomorrow. However Intel says that processor will only be released in late December/2008, what advantage you see there?

And let’s also assume AMD would release some new processor in February/2008 with very good performance almost on par with nehalem. Then tell me who will buy nehalem, and who will wait for it?


What exactly has been paperlaunched by Intel during the last few years? If Barcelona wasn't a paperlaunch then Intel has never paperlaunhed a thing.

Lots of things. But AMD in the past year(s) has done much worst, a lot worst!


Again, make a list.

Let’s start making it today from 6 months now. Let’s see how many of those 45nm parts appear for selling in the following months and at what quantities/availability.


You can break NDA only if you have signed one. What makes you think Anandtech had to write NDA when it received those chips?

Common sense. You say AMD is crap because only anand and one or two sites reviewed Barcelona. Tell me how many have done a Penryn preview like Anand did? Why did all of them done a preview if Intel doesn’t “chase” them.

10:00 AM, November 14, 2007  
Blogger Unknown said...

You say AMD is crap because only anand and one or two sites reviewed Barcelona.

That is true. How many sites have reviewed Penryn? Let's look.

Hexus
TechReport
[H]ardOCP
TomsHardware
Anandtech
TechArp
HotHardware
FiringSquad

That's just off the top of my head there. OTOH, on the Barcelona launch Anandtech had a handful of benchmarks while the Techreport was the only site to have a full suite of benchmarks ran.

Aguia also talks about Intel revealing Nehalem performance now. Why in blazes would they do that?! Intel provided a preview of Penryn performance a few months before the launch, there's nothing wrong with that. Intel has been very open with what Penryn is, and how it compares to it's older CPUs.

This is in stark contrast to AMD who claim Barcelona would be 40% faster than Clovertown yet ends up being fragged in all tests even Spec FP now.

10:52 AM, November 14, 2007  
Blogger Ho Ho said...

"Ok. Let’s assume intel sends nehalem for everyone for review tomorrow. However Intel says that processor will only be released in late December/2008, what advantage you see there?"

There is a difference between a year and a month, you know. E.g Intel sais before it makes price cuts, AMD doesn't. I know many people who have bought AMD CPU just to see the price drop by 30%+ next week. At least when you know a month or two before you can decide to wait or go with a bit more expensive solution, either way you won't have to regret it after.


"Lots of things."

Such as?


"Let’s see how many of those 45nm parts appear for selling in the following months and at what quantities/availability."

Why not see the things that they already have paperlaunched for sure, there are many things as you said. Make a list.


"Common sense"

Common sense also sais they won't break NDA if they have signed it.

11:10 AM, November 14, 2007  
Blogger Spaztic Pizza said...

AMD RIGS PHENOM LAUNCH BENCHES

Hector on his way out...

One is a non-legit source but given that AMD is now assing them as well as the rest of the geek press I'll choose to accept that this time...

The other is linked off The Street - so rumors are getting a little more heated....

Bye Bye Hector - thanks for doing to AMD what you did to Motorola.

11:30 AM, November 14, 2007  
Blogger Chuckula said...

Aquia: Considering I can place orders for the new Penryn from TigerDirect or from newegg TODAY, while IBM still cannot get enough Barcelona's to ship just a few token servers out 2 MONTHS AFTER AMD CLAIMS TO HAVE LAUNCHED THE CHIP, I'm going to assume that you are too stupid to know what a "paper launch" is. Here's a hint: Just because it conflicts with your warped worldview that every time Hector Ruiz takes a shit it's made out of gold, doesn't make Intel's early and extremely real launch of Penryn a "paper" launch.

As Ho ho correctly points out, an NDA only binds people who are parties to the NDA. Anand had no agreement with Intel at all, and if you had bothered to read the linked article (OH I forgot you can't look at anything not pre-approved by Hector) you would note that they specifically avoid showing the serial numbers on the chip for fear that their inside source leaking the chip would get in trouble.

That is NOT an "approved" review, it's called independent testing. AMD is apparently terrified of anyone except their own marketing department discussing Phenom. You blindly agree with them and don't apparently have any need to run any real tests. In fact, why don't you just stop using computers and blindly trust AMD to do your thinking for you, that seems to be all you're good for.

12:41 PM, November 14, 2007  
Blogger Aguia said...

Giant,
you are perfectly right.
But the talk was that anandtech made a preview on penryn on 18/04/2007 and on 21/08/2007 and besides them nobody has done it too.


Why in blazes would they do that?!

So you also agree with me them.


Intel provided a preview of Penryn performance a few months before the launch, there's nothing wrong with that.

You are contradicting yourself here.


This is in stark contrast to AMD who claim Barcelona would be 40% faster than Clovertown yet ends up being fragged in all tests even Spec FP now.

Quite correct too.

Giant by the way do you have any theory why renaming the file name on crisys make the game run fine on NVIDIA cards and when not it doesn’t when it should be the other way around? Why is Nvidia damaging their own products?


Ho ho,
There is a difference between a year and a month, you know.

But the talk was that anandtech made a preview on penryn on 18/04/2007 and on 21/08/2007 and besides them nobody has done it too.

And ho ho and I don’t think 7 (seven) months is that short.



Why not see the things that they already have paperlaunched for sure, there are many things as you said. Make a list.

The problem is that the products are widely available today, now would you remember they weren’t months/years ago when they where released?


Common sense also sais they won't break NDA if they have signed it.

OK. Then you agree with me when I say it was an Intel review and not an Anandtech review.


Thanks ho ho and giant for the normal discussion.

1:43 PM, November 14, 2007  
Blogger oneexpert said...

$200 DOLLAR ROUND UP....

You can buy a $200 OLPC portable from the OLPC or you can order a $200 desktop from Walmart or Newegg.

Choice AMD portable or VIA desktop and you get the whole computer with operating system thrown in for just $200.

NO intel here.
intel has totally abandoned the low end market due to there extreme over head costs they simply can not compete any longer.

BUY AMD hi performance, energy saving, low cost, cpus, platforms, and video solutions.
AMD providing world computing solutions.

2:48 PM, November 14, 2007  
Blogger enumae said...

Aguia
But the talk was that anandtech made a preview on penryn on 18/04/2007 and on 21/08/2007 and besides them nobody has done it too.


Intel released information about Penryn's performance at IDF Beijing (4-18-2007), their were no independent reviews. There were many sites reporting the same results.

8-21-2007 Anandtech seems to be alone, but on 9-19-2007 HKEPC did their own review.

3:17 PM, November 14, 2007  
Blogger Spaztic Pizza said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

3:31 PM, November 14, 2007  
Blogger Spaztic Pizza said...

Does it matter? 45nm Core 2 > 65nm Core2 > Barcelona/Phenom. Only a blind fanboy with no common sense and Hector's cock in his mouth would say different.

I like how AMD and their fanboi's went from Barcelona/Phenom will be 40% better to "Well at least it's competetive"...

Face it...AMD failed.

3:32 PM, November 14, 2007  
Blogger Scott said...

Sharikou, can you do an "AMD profit lite strategy overview" next?

Thanks!

6:18 PM, November 14, 2007  
Blogger pointer said...

Aguia said...
Giant,
you are perfectly right.
But the talk was that anandtech made a preview on penryn on 18/04/2007 and on 21/08/2007 and besides them nobody has done it too.


are you confusing about the preview and product launch? Just because AMD soft launch its Barcelona and now you tried to indicate Intel has done the same? Intel has long indicated the Penryn launch to be Q407 and you just simply use whatever data (the preview) to support that Intel has done the same? wow!


... buy Intel products just because they are not from AMD, and that’s called fanatic boy or MADboy.

I'll just look at this statement in general way. Yes, it is a fanatic or mad to buy Intel product just because they are not from AMD. And it will be equally true to buy AMD products just because they are not Intel. Don't you agree?

One should buy computer base on one's computing needs as well as ones economy capability. Buy the computer that fit your requirements, be it AMD or Intel CPU based, be it NVidia/Intel/AMD chipsets, be it NVidia/intel/AMD graphic solutions, etc.

Brand can be a requirement, but should not be the only or the most important requirement.

2:56 AM, November 15, 2007  
Blogger 6502fangurl said...

I have no idea where terry gets those AMD performance numbers. But I 'spose hardcore fanbois do that a lot.

7:29 PM, December 12, 2007  

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