Saturday, December 01, 2007

When you are reading this blog, you are reading the future

You have read this analysis before.

Now, read this report.

A lot of people are saying AMD's K10 chips are clocked too low. But, clockspeed is not AMD's problem. AMD's problem is capacity. Once AMD has the capacity, Intel will simply BK. Laying off people is not enough for Intel to survive. Intel's primitive copy-exact methodology of manufacturing is the rope that will hang itself.

Intel BK is set for 1Q09.

15 Comments:

Blogger Chuckula said...

Oh yeah... AMD is so capacity constrained that uh.... 50% of its fabs are sitting completely idle and are probably going to be sold off! One day it's Sharikou saying that asset light is great since there is all of this excess capacity, and next it's that AMD is capacity constrained.... AT THE SAME TIME!!

AMD is more constrained by the fact that it made overly complex designs that it is also unable to manufacture. Note: complex does NOT mean smart, I can get a bunch of high-school kids to make something that's complex and won't work, kinda like K10. Smart is what Intel has done: Make designs that actually work and that you can actually manufacture.

6:56 PM, December 01, 2007  
Blogger Chuckula said...

Having read your stupid article, it just says that TSMC is going to make some BULK SILICON low-cost CPUs. It's funny that BULK SILICON is the process that Intel uses but stupid fanboys on this site say is "evil"... I guess that makes AMD's new CPU's inferior! Thanks Sharikou, you just went and insulted AMD!

As for copy exactly being primitive... Oh yeah. I'm sure all those Intel guys are SO envious of AMD. After all, Intel gets a 45nm process running in record time, and then they have the horrible task of making that exact process work flawlessly in fabs all over the world!

AMD on the other hand has LOTS of experimentation combined with buzzwords!! That way they can spend 2 years getting a 65nm process to.... underperform their old process!! But they have powerpoint slides which makes it all better... yay!

7:05 PM, December 01, 2007  
Blogger Giant said...

Q1'09? What happened to Q2'08?! Of course, according to your previous estimates Intel would be below 50% market share now, and would also be suffering 'massive operating losses'.

Speaking of process technologies, see this:

http://www.xcpus.com/forums/rumor-mill/7234-deneb-45-nm-fight-nehalem.html

No idea if NHM A2 is out. I do know that NHM A0 boots and runs all major OSs. So what? Penryn did the same thing less than a year ago at this time.

News for you -- the 45mn process is *already* really tight. Google "intel defect density" and you'll see what I mean. 45nm is outpacing 65nm -- even with a couple of new classes of systematics rearing their ugly head this time around.

More news -- this sort of "tight process" is already being committed to 32nm. And in the past couple of weeks, a couple of key enabling steps were solved and the road to 45nm-level defects (or better) is much clearer.


Meanwhile AMD's 65nm process is so poor they can't even produce above 2.6Ghz dual core or 2.3ghz quad core. Of course for servers, AMD can't even produce enough 1.9Ghz CPUs for IBM!

For Phenom, AMD can only supply enough 2.2Ghz for Newegg and other such sites. Dell, HP etc. have receieved zero Phenom CPUs.

AMD BK by Q1'09.

7:22 PM, December 01, 2007  
Blogger Evil_Merlin said...

Here we go with Shaikou's crazy talk again.


1.) If its not about clock speed I'd be pissing myself if I was on AMD's BoD. Conidering that Intel's current generation is clock for clock better than AMD's current generation, and the fact that AMD is having problems with getting past 2.4 GHz, and Intel has already proven it can EASILY hit 4.0 GHz with Peryrn, I'd say its a HUGE problem. AMD has two major things they need to fix, the first being execution. They are having serious issues with 65um and ramping clock speeds and they are having major issues delivering product, to the point of getting Dell a wee bit irritated, which isn't a good thing to do to your largest customer.

2.) Intel will ALWAYS have more capacity than AMD. Intel has plenty of fabs and can actually afford to build more should they need to. AMD's last fab was nearly completely dependent on tax breaks and grants from the German government. Intel's last fab was all on Intel's dime...


So yes, part of AMDs issue is the lack of capacity, but that is tied quite a bit to the fact they are having moving to the 65um process. Something that went very smoothly for Intel, and Intel is already proving they are not having any issues moving to the 45um process and have already started machining for the 32um process...

Comments about Intel going BK in 2009 are just as silly as Intel going BK in 2008.

8:37 PM, December 01, 2007  
Blogger Giant said...

Sharikou, looks like it's time to re-enable comment moderation?

10:08 PM, December 01, 2007  
Blogger BONER said...

"Intel will BK at roughly four quarters after Phenom enters the market."

Mark your calendars, boys and girls. Intel BK in 4 quarters.

10:14 PM, December 01, 2007  
Blogger TamerLee said...

No no. Your doing it wrong.

Intel has been BK since Q2 2001. Duh.

10:15 PM, December 01, 2007  
Blogger oneexpert said...

OLPC Gains Momentum

Written by Matthew Cameron
Saturday, 01 December 2007 20:33

Things have been going slower than some have hoped, for the One Laptop Per Child Foundation; however, that might be changing. The country of Peru has just ordered 260,000 of these machines and a Mexican billionaire has requested 50,000. With competition from both Asus and Intel, OLPC was the first in this game. OLPC had originally contacted Intel in 2005, seeking partnership, but Intel showed no Interest.

After this setback, the OLPC Foundation contacted AMD and Advanced Micro Devices agreed to help that same day. Similar to AMD's 50x15 initiative, the One Laptop Per Child project seeks to bring new technologies and communication abilities to developing countries.


Only AMD, IBM, and VIA have any market share of the $200 dollar computer market although intel has attacked the OLPC in a effort to stop the OLPCs success.

Support the OLPC as they help to create world peace and prosperity for all.

BUY AMD energy saving, low cost, future proof, superior design, hi performance, cpus, platforms, and video solutions.

11:14 PM, December 01, 2007  
Blogger Randy Allen said...

oneexpert said...

OLPC Gains Momentum

Written by Matthew Cameron
Saturday, 01 December 2007 20:33

Things have been going slower than some have hoped, for the One Laptop Per Child Foundation; however, that might be changing. The country of Peru has just ordered 260,000 of these machines and a Mexican billionaire has requested 50,000. With competition from both Asus and Intel, OLPC was the first in this game. OLPC had originally contacted Intel in 2005, seeking partnership, but Intel showed no Interest.

After this setback, the OLPC Foundation contacted AMD and Advanced Micro Devices agreed to help that same day. Similar to AMD's 50x15 initiative, the One Laptop Per Child project seeks to bring new technologies and communication abilities to developing countries.


Only AMD, IBM, and VIA have any market share of the $200 dollar computer market although intel has attacked the OLPC in a effort to stop the OLPCs success.

Support the OLPC as they help to create world peace and prosperity for all.

BUY AMD energy saving, low cost, future proof, superior design, hi performance, cpus, platforms, and video solutions.


Yes, I totally agree. We need to help our charities like OLPC.

BUY AMD energy saving, low cost, future proof, most often copied, superior design, hi performance, cpus, platforms, video solutions and growth stock.

11:54 PM, December 01, 2007  
Blogger Randy Allen said...

OLPC's Nigerian patent suit being waged by a man convicted of bank fraud
Posted by Matt Asay Post a comment

The Boston Globe is reporting that LANCOR, the Nigerian-owned company that has filed suit against the One Laptop Per Child project for patent infringement, is actually helmed by a man convicted of bank fraud. He spent a year in prison. Apparently not much has changed:

OLPC also has been hit by a patent-infringement lawsuit in Nigeria filed by Lagos Analysis Corp. of Natick. The suit claims the foundation stole the company's keyboard design. Negroponte said the lawsuit is without merit, because OLPC uses a keyboard programming technique developed in 1996, long before the Nigerian patent was filed.

The founder of Lagos Analysis Corp., Ade Oyegbola, was convicted of bank fraud in Boston in 1990 and served a year in prison. Oyegbola insists his Nigerian patent is legitimate and said he plans to file a copyright-infringement lawsuit against OLPC in an American court.

Curiouser and curiouser. Oyegbola should learn to set his sights a little higher. Suing an organization with only $8.7 million in the bank is hardly the path to untold riches. If you're going to compound bank fraud with apparently spurious lawsuits, go big. Take a page out of SCO's playbook.

SOME PEOPLE JUST HAVE NO SENSE OF ETHTICS. SUING CHARITIES LIKE OLPC IS JUST STOOPING TO NEW LOWS.

BUY AMD hi performance, energy saving, low cost cpus, platforms, video solutions and growth stock.

Please join AMD in its support of the OLPC and their effort to create World Peace and prosperity for all.

12:02 AM, December 02, 2007  
Blogger Scott said...

We need to help charities like AMD. AMD is a non-profit company. No, really, they don't make any profits!

7:06 AM, December 02, 2007  
Blogger lex said...

When you are reading this blog, you are reading ...

Lots of empty words from people that don't influence the business and whats more funny don't even know the business.

Anyone who says INTEL will be BK well that says it all

Anyone who says AMD clocking isn't improtant that say sit all

Anyone who says capacity isn't a situation for AMD or an advantage for INTEL.. well that says it all

Is it no wonder we know not what PhD this blogger has

He could earn a PhD for delusion, hallucination, or stupidity though. I will sit on his defence committe for that and approve that "Ph"ony "D"octorate. PhD of lunacy is approved

10:02 AM, December 02, 2007  
Blogger oneexpert said...

OLPC SURVIVES INSPITE OF intel ATTACK

The Holiday Season Starts with Giving One Laptop

Participate Now in Give One Get One to Help Transform Education and Learning in Developing Countries

Cambridge, Mass., Nov. 12, 2007 – The holiday season is a time for expressing thanks for all that we have and for giving to others who are less fortunate than ourselves. It’s therefore the perfect time to participate in One Laptop per Child’s Give One Get One program and help bring education and learning to the one billion children in the developing world who receive inadequate, or in some cases, no education at all.

One Laptop per Child (OLPC) is a non-profit organization launched in 2005 by MIT professor Nicholas Negroponte to design, manufacture and distribute laptop computers that are sufficiently affordable and connected to the Internet, to provide every child in the world access to new channels of learning, sharing and self-expression.

“Since announcing the Give One Get One program eight weeks ago, we’ve experienced a tremendous outpouring of public support,” said Nicholas Negroponte, founder and chairman of One Laptop per Child. “OLPC is about learning not laptops. It is wonderful to see how many people deeply care about empowering children, who in turn are the world’s most important natural resource.”

During the two-week period November 12-26, for just US$399, individuals who live in the USA or Canada can participate in the Give One Get One program to support the OLPC Foundation by paying for two XO children’s laptops – one to give, one to get. The laptop you give will go to a child in Afghanistan, Cambodia, Haiti or Rwanda. The laptop you get can be used by you or a deserving child or friend. $200 of the Give One Get One contribution is tax-deductible as a charitable donation. The XO laptops will be delivered starting in December on a first come, first served basis.

Go now to http://www.laptopgiving.org or call 1-877-70-LAPTOP (1-877-705-2786) to participate in this unique philanthropic opportunity.

Masi Oka, star of NBC’s hit ensemble drama series “Heroes,” recently assumed the added role of goodwill ambassador for One Laptop per Child. “Anyone can be a ‘hero’ in real life,” said Oka. “Participating in the Give One Get One program is a form of heroism – going above and beyond ordinary circumstances to help another human being in need. I encourage everyone to do what they can to support the work of One Laptop per Child and its efforts to improve children’s education and connectivity to the world.”

The Revolutionary XO Laptop
The XO laptop, conceived at the Media Lab of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and developed and manufactured by OLPC and its technology partners, has been created specifically for children in developing countries. It has many features not found in any other laptop, including:

* Rugged design and sealed case to make it water-and shock-resistant
* High-resolution screen that can be read in direct sunlight, as well as indoors in the dark
* Low power consumption using only 5-10 percent of the average wattage of a normal laptop
* Can be powered by solar energy and human energy with pull cords and hand cranks
* Mesh (peer-to-peer) network that turns each XO laptop into a full-time router connecting each laptop and allowing for easy Internet access
* No moving parts, except for rabbit ears (for the mesh network) and the hinge
* Runs on free, open source software
* Contains no lead, mercury, cadmium or PVC

The XO laptop comes with a built-in video camera, sophisticated sound processing, and software for making music, creating art, playing games, browsing the web and word processing. The XO laptop can also be used as an e-book reader in both the dark and in bright sunlight.

U2’s The Edge has created a custom start-up sound for the revolutionary XO children’s laptop. The sound welcomes children to the laptop’s opening animation. The Edge said, “I'm delighted to support One Laptop Per Child, and its amazing aim to use this technology to help children all over the world."

As a result of a partnership with OLPC, T-Mobile USA is offering one year of complimentary T-Mobile HotSpot access to people in the U.S. who donate an XO laptop to a child in a developing country through the Give One Get One program. T-Mobile HotSpot service provides fast and reliable Wi-Fi Internet access at more than 8,500 public T-Mobile HotSpot locations throughout the United States including at select Starbucks coffee shops, Borders bookstores, Hyatt Hotels, Amtrak stations and many airports.

Electronic Arts Inc. has also announced that it will donate the original SimCity – the blockbuster 1989 game credited with giving rise to the city-building game genre – to each XO laptop. SimCity is entertainment that’s unintentionally educational. Players learn to use limited resources to build and customize their cities. There are choices and consequences, but in the end, it’s a creativity tool that’s only limited by the player’s imagination.

About One Laptop per Child
One Laptop per Child (OLPC at http://www.laptop.org) is a non-profit organization created by Nicholas Negroponte and others from the MIT Media Lab to design, manufacture and distribute laptop computers that are sufficiently inexpensive to provide every child in the world access to knowledge and modern forms of education. These XO laptops will be rugged, open source, and so energy efficient that they can be powered by a child manually. Mesh networking will give many machines Internet access from one connection. The pricing goal is $100.

The XO laptops will be sold to governments and issued to children by schools on a basis of one laptop per child. Starting November 12 and for two weeks only, individuals in the U.S. and Canada will be able to participate in the Give One Get One program and for US$399 get a laptop while giving one simultaneously to a child in a developing nation. For more information on the Give One Get One program, go to http://www.laptopgiving.org.

oneexpert said...

TWO COMPANIES ATTACK O.L.P.C CHARITY....

Giant said...

OLPC SUED FOR ILLEGAL USE OF INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY:
Lagos Analysis Corp. (LANCOR) Files Lawsuit Against Nicholas Negroponte and OLPC Association for Patent Infringement.

oneexpert said...

OLPC CHARITY ATTACKED BY intel

SHAME...SHAME....SHAME...on intel

Sunday November 25, 2007 22:28:26 EST
Nov 26, 2007 (financialwire.net via COMTEX News Network) --

November 26, 2007 (FinancialWire) An initiative to bring $100 AMD (NYSE: AMD) laptops to impoverished children has been derailed by rivals such as Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) and the initial lack of Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Windows operating system.

The devices have been modified several times and the price tag has risen to $188 after undergoing the changes, which included letting the machines work with Windows. OLPC founder Nicolas Negroponte said that production has began in China, with an initial 200,000 PCs expected to be produced.

Intel released a similar low cost laptop called the Classmate last year after hearing about the OLPC project. Negroponte originally was hoping to sell 150 million laptops by the end of 2008.

TWO companies attacking the OLPC CHARITY.

COINCIDENCE????

BUY AMD hi performance, low cost, future proof, energy saving, most often copied, cpus, platforms and video solutions.

12:07 PM, December 02, 2007  
Blogger Louis said...

Double or nothing Sharidouche? You will lose your Q2'08 Intel bankruptcy claim so I'll give you a chance to redeem yourself on the latest prediction. $1000 says that Intel will not be bankrupt by Q1'09. Do you have the balls to take me up on this wager Sharidouche? I think this might be the easiest $1000 I ever make.

3:57 PM, December 02, 2007  
Blogger machupi1 said...

Hector is a delusional one trick poney. He tried that asset light crap at MOT SPS. The division was losing money and jobs at the same time he was installing waterfalls and heated doorknobs in his office.

4:47 PM, December 02, 2007  

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