Friday, January 27, 2006

AMD to rule 2006 full year unchallenged

1) Desktop: AMD Rules

The Pentium D 9xx Presler is the last of the Pentium 4 family, it got beaten up by old Athlon 64 X2s. Moreover, AMD is soon to release the Socket AM2 version of Athlon 64, which will widen its lead. INTEL's next desktop chip is the Conroe, which is not expected until 4Q06 and won't have a big impact for that quarter.

AMD will gain big in corporate desktop market, due to its performance and performance/watt advantages over Pentium 4. (Funny that INTEL can't create new chips, so they started to rename CPUs)

AMD has another 12 months to run free and FAB36 is cranking. I expect AMD to exit 2006 with 50% of the desktop market, slightly more than double its current 24.3% market share.

2) Mobile: AMD gaining fast

First of all, AMD will have 100% of the 64 bit notebook market for at least three quarters, and people are getting to know the importance of 64 bit more as Windows Vista approaching. INTEL's amaturish middle-east design team is having trouble adding AMD64 extensions into the Pentium M core.

Also, as JFTC recommendations implemented, Japanese vendors will start doing Turion 64 machines.

I expect AMD to exit 2006 with 25% mobile market share, a modest increase from 15.1%.

3) Server: AMD rules

Opteron simply has no competition, only uninformed people will choose Xeon.

INTEL is pretty much capacity constrained, it can't solve the chipset shortage problem for months. With so many FABs*, the only possible reason is that INTEL's yield is too low.

I expect AMD to exit 2006 with 45% server market share, almost triple the current 16.4% market share.

Overall exiting market share about 40%.

* California: D2 - 200mm - 90nm; Oregon:F20 - 200mm, D1C - 300mm 90nm, D1D - 300mm 65nm/45nm; Arizona: F12 - 300mm 65nm, F22 - 200mm, F32 - 300mm 45nm; New Mexico F11 - 200mm, F21- 300mm 90nm; Colorado: F23 - 200mm; Mass: F17 - 200mm; Ireland: F14 - 200mm, F24 - 300mm 65nm; Isreal: F18 - 200mm 90nm, F28 - 300mm


Anonymous Anonymous said...

How can we be sure Windows Vista will actually come out in a short time? Will Microsoft wait for Intel again?


10:27 PM, January 27, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I doubt that Microsoft will wait for Intel. They developed their 64 bit windows specifically for the AMD 64 bit chips. While Intel and Microsoft still work together on some things (like HD-DVD) they seem to be less of an alliance than they used to be. They'll probably ship Vista as soon as its ready, or when it's the best time for them.

Just wondering, does anyone know how many/what versions of Vista will be available in 32 bit?

1:35 PM, March 05, 2006  

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