Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Intel's BK time revised

A reader made the following observation:

intel 2005 120000 plus employees.
15000 employees fired.
profits up
intel 2006 105000 employees.
15000 employees fired.
profits up.
intel 2007 90000 employees.
2007 10000 employees fired.
profits up.
80000 employees left.
6.0 YEAR PROJECTION
2013 no employees left to fire.
lost 13333 employees per year.


While this projection is valid based on the layoff data alone, it does not take into account some key factors
1) the effect of AMD's technology lead
2) Intel's liability from anit-trust violations.

Intel may have laid off 10000 in 2007, but it was in a time when it had some perceived advantage with its double-dual-core. AMD's true-quad was just launched one month ago and is in the process of ramping up -- now the demand is far exceeding supply. Once AMD fully converts to K10 marchitecture, any perceived Intel lead will be vaporized overnight. At that point, you will see an accelerated layoff schedule from Intel.

Another killer is the anti-trust lawsuit, AMD estimated that Intel made about $30 billion illegal gains. In fact, AMD's lawyers are basically arguing that all Intel's profits belong to AMD and you need to treble that amount for anti-trust violations.

When will Intel BK? My original projection was 2Q08. That projection was based on the assumption that AMD would lauch K10 in March 2007. AMD had a six month delay -- which allowed Intel to make profits for two quarters. Accordingly, I adjust my Intel BK timeframe to 1Q09.

38 Comments:

Blogger Scott said...

ROFL!!!!!!!!!

Ok Sharikou, admit it, you're an Intel Fanboy that just loves to get reactions, right?


This is the begining of a new era, the era of 1Q09.

10:15 AM, October 17, 2007  
Blogger Scott said...

Poor Chris Howell will have his little 2Q08 heart broken!

10:36 AM, October 17, 2007  
Blogger Rodney said...

I think Scott is on the right track.

10:38 AM, October 17, 2007  
Blogger Evil_Merlin said...

Well thats just the feather in the cap for morons.

Sharidouche quoted oneexpert.

Sharidouche, kill yourself. Now. You are worse than useless. You are a fucking moron.

Its already been WELL shown Intel's CURRENT processors can handily beat the K10 in just about every category and the next gen Intel processors are only a couple weeks away.

Hang yourself, or gas yourself you fucking moronic fanboi, you are as useless as any human being on this planet can be.

10:56 AM, October 17, 2007  
Blogger Spaztic Pizza said...

ROFL....who here didn't know that this fuckwit was going to change his story???

AND he bases his spew off OneRetards non-understanding of how corporations work.

Face it nimwit, Intel isn't going to bankrupt, admit it and we may (but probably not) stop laughing at you.

AMD's antitrust litigation will go on forever, and just like in Microsofts case in the EU, I foresee fines of less than 1 billion. No goverment can legally make a corporation turn over all it's profits to another. Yet another shining example of you're inability to grasp even the simplest economic concepts.

I'm all for giving the mentally challenged a fair shot, but you my friend, need to be put back in your cage.

10:57 AM, October 17, 2007  
Blogger Scott said...

Evil_Merlin: "Sharidouche quoted oneexpert."


ROFL


Gotta love Fanoby math. They do realize that a BK would have to do with PROFITABILITY or the LACK of it, not employee numbers.

Intel is rocking AMD in the benchmarks and on the books.

Sharikou, I challenge you to explain the upcoming AMD quarterly statement. Explain why under earnings the number is in RED instead of BLACK.

I then challenge you to compare that with Intel's quarterly statement.

Let's see what conclusions you draw.

10:59 AM, October 17, 2007  
Blogger Christian M. Howell said...

Scott, you little bitch. I have been quoted as saying ALL OF YOU SHOULD STOP THIS BK TALK.

Find that. Asshole.

11:26 AM, October 17, 2007  
Blogger Bubba said...

Chris,
Still can't get laid, huh?

11:36 AM, October 17, 2007  
Blogger Bubba said...

What will Intel BK?

What will Intel BK?

AMD.

11:39 AM, October 17, 2007  
Blogger Spaztic Pizza said...

Awww he can't even come up with a good insult...pathetic.

11:42 AM, October 17, 2007  
Blogger S said...

"now the demand is far exceeding supply"

AMD's problem lies right there. No matter if the whole world want to buy AMD's cpu, AMD will not earn a single penny extra other than from what it can supply.

K10 may be an excellent design (debatably), but it has no value to the company until sales volume is realized.

11:53 AM, October 17, 2007  
Blogger Tonus said...

I wouldn't rely too much on the lawsuit. Not only do those actions take a long time to resolve (the current suit was filed almost two-and-a-half years ago), but it's normally difficult to prove the charges, and it's even more difficult to get a significant penalty awarded, much less upheld on appeal.

I think that after a few more years of dragging on in the courts, there will either be a settlement with almost no details made public, or Intel walks away without much more than a finger wagged in its face. Anti-trust suits face a real uphill battle in the USA.

11:58 AM, October 17, 2007  
Blogger Giant said...

UNREAL TOURNAMENT 3 PERFORMANCE:

INTEL VS. AMD:

http://anandtech.com/video/showdoc.aspx?i=3127&p=7

2.33Ghz Intel frags 3.2Ghz AMD. Pittiful.

AMD BK in Q2'08. No I mean Q1'09. Well, whatever. Just pick a date, any date. In fact, AMD BK by the time I finish my cup of tea!

12:24 PM, October 17, 2007  
Blogger core2dude said...


Christian M Janitor


ALL OF YOU SHOULD STOP THIS BK TALK.


Lies, lies, and more lies...

Admit it janitor, you are Shakira's b1tch!

12:31 PM, October 17, 2007  
Blogger Spaztic Pizza said...

No - he's just a bitch period. Whine's like a bitch, cry's like a bitch, denies facts like a bitch, just a general all around bitch.

12:50 PM, October 17, 2007  
Blogger Only AMD said...

http://www.hardwareschotte.de/hardware/preise/proid_9060142/preis_GIGABYTE+GA-MA790FX-DQ6

2:18 PM, October 17, 2007  
Blogger Mahboobul said...

Sharikou,
You idiot, just shut up.

Hopefully AMD will be around at your projected date for intel BK. I guess AMD will. It has been barely surviving since its inception. Perhaps it needs someone to put it out of misery.

2:35 PM, October 17, 2007  
Blogger doorknob_dan said...

I've been sitting back, laying low and quiet for a long long time waiting for you to 'adjust' your Intel bankruptcy forecast, Sharikou. I've come here every single day since around Feb 2006, I've not said a peep here for a long long time until now.

But today is a day I shall never forget. You finally adjusted your BK prediction!!!!

I fucking laughed my ass off!! Man, I can't stop laughing!

Your excuse for being wrong is that AMD was late with K10??? Man, that is HILARIOUS!

"Oh, hey, my prediction of the Germans winning WW2 is a little bit off too because Hitler killed himself. Accordingly, I'm adjusting my prediction to the Germans winning WW2 in Q2 of 2015."


It's been a long time coming, but you didn't have much time left to change your tune....especially with Intel's financials just coming out...even YOU of all people couldn't ignore what's going on!!!

HAHAHAHA, YOU LOOK LIKE AN ABSOLUTE FOOL! Dr. I-have-time-to-play-with-my-Xbox360-and-I-only-start-posting-more-when-it-gets-colder-out-cause-I-wash-cars-for-a-living!

You look like such a fucking fool to anyone with an ounce of common sense. Yes, AMD is kicking Intel's ass. Yes, you're a doctor too - doctors all sound like 16 year olds, have Xboxes, refer to anecodatal evidence as factual evidence, and make insane amounts of spelling and grammtical mistakes on every post.

The funniest thing you ever did was create a pseudonym as OneExpert so you can slag off and be a dummy and not have to worry about your sterling reputation as Sharikou. EVERYONE CAN SEE THROUGH THIS. SURPRISE!

And hey, the quick one-above posting about architecture is such a SMART way to get us to not notice your change in prediction about Intel going bankrupt.

I can't even believe you're REAL! You're some 19 year old idiot posting from grammy's basment and I BET you're an Intel fan but just want to make AMD'ers look stupid, which you've done a fantastic job with.

And one last thing....I don't believe you were right on ANY of your predictions, were you!

HAHAHAHAHA, YOU'RE SUCH A DOUCHEBAG, SHARIKOU!

3:13 PM, October 17, 2007  
Blogger abinstein said...

Sharikou... I like your coolness in facing the heated hatred from those intel fanbois.

It seems to me that in terms of making arguments (valid or not, solid or speculative), you're quite above their level... :)

3:22 PM, October 17, 2007  
Blogger Spaztic Pizza said...

abinstein - you're as big a douche as Sharifreak is, get off his jock.

Coolness? I'm surprised he had the balls to change it given how many times he's been called on his bullshit "predictions".

Notice he quickly put up another article that pushes everything so far down the page so no one will notice his failure.

He, you, his other cock-gobbling friends, fail. At understanding technology, at understanding simple elementary economics, at life. So just shut your hole and go give Sharicunt a good asspounding!

Don't forget the reacharound!!!

3:26 PM, October 17, 2007  
Blogger yomamafor2 said...

Abinstein
Sharikou... I like your coolness in facing the heated hatred from those intel fanbois.

It seems to me that in terms of making arguments (valid or not, solid or speculative), you're quite above their level... :)


...of stupidity of course.

To the person who came up with the concept of "if IPC is lower when the die size is bigger than the competition, the engineers must have not done a good job", you're just as much as a retard like sharidouche.

3:57 PM, October 17, 2007  
Blogger GutterRat said...

Your predictions don't matter as much as the facts.

And the fact is that you are an idiot.

LOL

4:30 PM, October 17, 2007  
Blogger GutterRat said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

4:30 PM, October 17, 2007  
Blogger GutterRat said...

yomamafor2,

abinstein is in denial about his affiliation to AMD.

Yeah, IPC being dictated by die size. Go figure, his 15 minutes of fame.

ROFLMAO

4:34 PM, October 17, 2007  
Blogger sharikouisallwaysright said...

Anandtech wrote in article:
"AMD has a strong technology portfolio that keeps the company going even when business is bad, putting the company YEARS AHEAD of Intel in in areas like the server market."

Link of the article:
http://www.anandtech.com/showdoc.aspx?i=3114&p=1

5:06 PM, October 17, 2007  
Blogger Thom said...

I don’t happen to think Intel is going BK anytime soon based on their history but a few points in that direction:

1) The Pennsylvania Railroad made a profit right up till their BK. They didn’t do it by laying off 30% of the workforce. Does anyone know how they stayed in the black right to the moment of doom?
2) I hope those that favor Intel and make a point of how much profit they are reporting have the same positive thoughts about the Oil Company profits when you pull into a station and fill up your car with $3.00 a gallon gas. The Oil Companies only make 8-11% profit. Monopolies like Microsoft and Intel (nearly so) do a bit better than that most of the time which means we are all paying an inflated price for what we get from both.
3) Laying off 30% of your work force in a flat market isn’t just trimming the fat as one Intel employee said it was. This on top of reporting pretty good profits will create a lot of bad blood within the organization as a whole. Bad blood will create its own attrition and negative results down the road.

Like I said, I don’t think they are going BK anytime soon but they sure are acting like they are.

5:29 PM, October 17, 2007  
Blogger lex said...

"Ph"ony "Ph"ony "Ph"ony "D"octorate

You missed one small item to include in your trend.
The ever increasing profit correlation to reduced employement
The rate of employee reduction is 10,000/year, with the current 80,000 they have 8 years to reach end goal.
The INTEL math is saying 10,000 = 2 billion / year

Year one: 10,000 less employees 2 billion more profits
Year 2: 20,000 less employees 4 billion more profits
Year 3: 30,000 less employees 6 billion more profits
Year 4: 40,000 less employees 8 billion more profits
Year 5: 50,000 less employees 10 billion more profits
Year 6: 60,000 less employees 12 billion more profits
Year 8: all employees gone. INTEL profits at 18 billion and a record for any company in history.

Simply astounding trend from the "B"ig "K"ahuna BK company.

5:45 PM, October 17, 2007  
Blogger Chuckula said...

2) I hope those that favor Intel and make a point of how much profit they are reporting have the same positive thoughts about the Oil Company profits when you pull into a station and fill up your car with $3.00 a gallon gas. The Oil Companies only make 8-11% profit. Monopolies like Microsoft and Intel (nearly so) do a bit better than that most of the time which means we are all paying an inflated price for what we get from both.

Hey Thom, would you please let your friends Christian Howell, Abinstein, only_amd, pezal (who made the dumbest post of all time), and one_molester know that the next time they accuse Intel of pricing its chips too low, that you are saying Intel prices its chips too high?

Or are you another fanboy like them who will say that Intel prices every chip simultaneously too low and too high to fit whatever anti-Intel rant you are going off on at the moment?
(I think the second option is probably more accurate)

In Q2 2008 we'll be able to say that AMD lost boatloads of money right up until the point it went bankrupt... and Sharikou will probably be on the roof with the SWAT team surrounding him.

7:13 PM, October 17, 2007  
Blogger Louis said...

Sharikou... STFU. Your predictions aren't worth the paper your phony PhD is written on.

Chris said:
"Scott, you little bitch. I have been quoted as saying ALL OF YOU SHOULD STOP THIS BK TALK."

Is it perhaps because you were wrong Chris? Bitch.

10:18 PM, October 17, 2007  
Blogger Louis said...

Here's an interesting read about Intel's decision to switch to IMC:

EWeek article

and here from
Wired:


If you don't care to read the articles, Rattner basically says that Intel consciously made the decision not to integrate the memory controller because the requisite performance could be met without it thus avoiding the cost penalty. Pretty plausible since Intel's highest performing chips with FSB architecture still easily outperform AMD's chips with HT. I don't expect the Phake PhD to understand this though since he was fired from Intel.

To quote JRat:
WN: What about architecture, specifically native quad-core? AMD is claiming that new features like QuickPath are analogous to their own Direct Connect architecture and HyperTransport. They're casting your move as validation -- that they were right all along.

Rattner: IBM, in the heyday of the PowerPC, made this big to-do about using copper as the metal that runs between the transistors and hooks them up. Our view was when we need copper, we'll have copper. We didn't feel we needed copper. And in fact we used this analogy of traffic lights. Copper allowed the cars to go faster between the lights. But the lights, which represented the transistors, weren't changing any faster.

And of course the proof of the pudding was that IBM, despite copper, never built a PowerPC that was even half the frequency of the leading Intel processor. So gee, if copper has this magic property of making faster processors, how come your processors are less than half as fast as Intel's processors?

Now, we did get to the point where the transistors got fast enough where we said copper makes sense and we introduced copper. We actually had the copper processors kind of sitting on the shelf just waiting for the point when transistors caught up.

We said the same thing a year and a half ago when there was a lot of competitive noise about AMD's integrated-memory controller. We said look, the design of these things involves thousands of tradeoffs. We felt we could achieve the requisite performance levels without an integrated memory controller, which adds cost to the processor. We said when we get to the point when we feel (an) integrated-memory controller is required to achieve the required performance levels, we will integrate the memory controller.

10:29 PM, October 17, 2007  
Blogger Scott said...

Chuckula,

So Intel is making money hand over fist with inflated priced.

Or, we can buy products that are inferior from AMD for the same price.

Hmmm... I don't care what company makes more profits, I want the better product for the buck.

It's not Intel's fault that AMD is incompetent.

4:01 AM, October 18, 2007  
Blogger Chuckula said...

Scott: Read my post again.. I'm bashing stupid AMD fanboys who complain that the same chip from Intel is both over & under priced at the same time.

7:18 AM, October 18, 2007  
Blogger Christian M. Howell said...

No - he's just a bitch period. Whine's like a bitch, cry's like a bitch, denies facts like a bitch, just a general all around bitch.


You only get upset cause you know I'm right. But I bet you wouldn't have anything to say in person.

Besmirching character can be considered libel. It can also cause a removal of consciousness.

7:19 AM, October 18, 2007  
Blogger Christian M. Howell said...

Scott,

I guess since Intel's incompetence has me using a crappy Lenovo P4, I'd say AMD is doing good.

To all,

Sharikou has you so screwed up you don't even know what's going on in real life, do you?

7:23 AM, October 18, 2007  
Blogger Spaztic Pizza said...

Since you have no character then there's really nothing to besmirch. Since you're so fond of quoting legal precedents (which you never really reasearch you just spout off about), if you tak the time and looked, you'd find that blogging and anonymous comments are protected under the first amendment and as such are protected from legal action. My comments as to your "character" are wholly my opinion, and thus protected, so go take a flying leap you sperm-guzzler.

8:52 AM, October 18, 2007  
Blogger Scott said...

LOL Chuck. Sorry, I was in attack mode from being insulted by Chris.

I agree.

AMD fanbois try to fight both sides of the pricing argument on Intel, it's quite humorous.

8:59 AM, October 18, 2007  
Blogger Scott said...

I wonder if Sharikou will do a blog entry on AMD's 3Q07 Earnings (Operating Loss) Statement?

9:00 AM, October 18, 2007  
Blogger shandy malone said...

Sorry what was the timeline?

3:11 PM, April 19, 2015  

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