Intel's BK time revised
A reader made the following observation:
intel 2005 120000 plus employees.
15000 employees fired.
profits up
intel 2006 105000 employees.
15000 employees fired.
profits up.
intel 2007 90000 employees.
2007 10000 employees fired.
profits up.
80000 employees left.
6.0 YEAR PROJECTION
2013 no employees left to fire.
lost 13333 employees per year.
While this projection is valid based on the layoff data alone, it does not take into account some key factors
1) the effect of AMD's technology lead
2) Intel's liability from anit-trust violations.
Intel may have laid off 10000 in 2007, but it was in a time when it had some perceived advantage with its double-dual-core. AMD's true-quad was just launched one month ago and is in the process of ramping up -- now the demand is far exceeding supply. Once AMD fully converts to K10 marchitecture, any perceived Intel lead will be vaporized overnight. At that point, you will see an accelerated layoff schedule from Intel.
Another killer is the anti-trust lawsuit, AMD estimated that Intel made about $30 billion illegal gains. In fact, AMD's lawyers are basically arguing that all Intel's profits belong to AMD and you need to treble that amount for anti-trust violations.
When will Intel BK? My original projection was 2Q08. That projection was based on the assumption that AMD would lauch K10 in March 2007. AMD had a six month delay -- which allowed Intel to make profits for two quarters. Accordingly, I adjust my Intel BK timeframe to 1Q09.
posted by Sharikou, Ph. D. @ 10/17/2007 10:00:00 AM
36 Comments:
ROFL!!!!!!!!!
Ok Sharikou, admit it, you're an Intel Fanboy that just loves to get reactions, right?
This is the begining of a new era, the era of 1Q09.
Poor Chris Howell will have his little 2Q08 heart broken!
I think Scott is on the right track.
Well thats just the feather in the cap for morons.
Sharidouche quoted oneexpert.
Sharidouche, kill yourself. Now. You are worse than useless. You are a fucking moron.
Its already been WELL shown Intel's CURRENT processors can handily beat the K10 in just about every category and the next gen Intel processors are only a couple weeks away.
Hang yourself, or gas yourself you fucking moronic fanboi, you are as useless as any human being on this planet can be.
ROFL....who here didn't know that this fuckwit was going to change his story???
AND he bases his spew off OneRetards non-understanding of how corporations work.
Face it nimwit, Intel isn't going to bankrupt, admit it and we may (but probably not) stop laughing at you.
AMD's antitrust litigation will go on forever, and just like in Microsofts case in the EU, I foresee fines of less than 1 billion. No goverment can legally make a corporation turn over all it's profits to another. Yet another shining example of you're inability to grasp even the simplest economic concepts.
I'm all for giving the mentally challenged a fair shot, but you my friend, need to be put back in your cage.
Evil_Merlin: "Sharidouche quoted oneexpert."
ROFL
Gotta love Fanoby math. They do realize that a BK would have to do with PROFITABILITY or the LACK of it, not employee numbers.
Intel is rocking AMD in the benchmarks and on the books.
Sharikou, I challenge you to explain the upcoming AMD quarterly statement. Explain why under earnings the number is in RED instead of BLACK.
I then challenge you to compare that with Intel's quarterly statement.
Let's see what conclusions you draw.
Scott, you little bitch. I have been quoted as saying ALL OF YOU SHOULD STOP THIS BK TALK.
Find that. Asshole.
Chris,
Still can't get laid, huh?
What will Intel BK?
What will Intel BK?
AMD.
Awww he can't even come up with a good insult...pathetic.
"now the demand is far exceeding supply"
AMD's problem lies right there. No matter if the whole world want to buy AMD's cpu, AMD will not earn a single penny extra other than from what it can supply.
K10 may be an excellent design (debatably), but it has no value to the company until sales volume is realized.
I wouldn't rely too much on the lawsuit. Not only do those actions take a long time to resolve (the current suit was filed almost two-and-a-half years ago), but it's normally difficult to prove the charges, and it's even more difficult to get a significant penalty awarded, much less upheld on appeal.
I think that after a few more years of dragging on in the courts, there will either be a settlement with almost no details made public, or Intel walks away without much more than a finger wagged in its face. Anti-trust suits face a real uphill battle in the USA.
UNREAL TOURNAMENT 3 PERFORMANCE:
INTEL VS. AMD:
http://anandtech.com/video/showdoc.aspx?i=3127&p=7
2.33Ghz Intel frags 3.2Ghz AMD. Pittiful.
AMD BK in Q2'08. No I mean Q1'09. Well, whatever. Just pick a date, any date. In fact, AMD BK by the time I finish my cup of tea!
Christian M Janitor
ALL OF YOU SHOULD STOP THIS BK TALK.
Lies, lies, and more lies...
Admit it janitor, you are Shakira's b1tch!
No - he's just a bitch period. Whine's like a bitch, cry's like a bitch, denies facts like a bitch, just a general all around bitch.
http://www.hardwareschotte.de/hardware/preise/proid_9060142/preis_GIGABYTE+GA-MA790FX-DQ6
Sharikou,
You idiot, just shut up.
Hopefully AMD will be around at your projected date for intel BK. I guess AMD will. It has been barely surviving since its inception. Perhaps it needs someone to put it out of misery.
I've been sitting back, laying low and quiet for a long long time waiting for you to 'adjust' your Intel bankruptcy forecast, Sharikou. I've come here every single day since around Feb 2006, I've not said a peep here for a long long time until now.
But today is a day I shall never forget. You finally adjusted your BK prediction!!!!
I fucking laughed my ass off!! Man, I can't stop laughing!
Your excuse for being wrong is that AMD was late with K10??? Man, that is HILARIOUS!
"Oh, hey, my prediction of the Germans winning WW2 is a little bit off too because Hitler killed himself. Accordingly, I'm adjusting my prediction to the Germans winning WW2 in Q2 of 2015."
It's been a long time coming, but you didn't have much time left to change your tune....especially with Intel's financials just coming out...even YOU of all people couldn't ignore what's going on!!!
HAHAHAHA, YOU LOOK LIKE AN ABSOLUTE FOOL! Dr. I-have-time-to-play-with-my-Xbox360-and-I-only-start-posting-more-when-it-gets-colder-out-cause-I-wash-cars-for-a-living!
You look like such a fucking fool to anyone with an ounce of common sense. Yes, AMD is kicking Intel's ass. Yes, you're a doctor too - doctors all sound like 16 year olds, have Xboxes, refer to anecodatal evidence as factual evidence, and make insane amounts of spelling and grammtical mistakes on every post.
The funniest thing you ever did was create a pseudonym as OneExpert so you can slag off and be a dummy and not have to worry about your sterling reputation as Sharikou. EVERYONE CAN SEE THROUGH THIS. SURPRISE!
And hey, the quick one-above posting about architecture is such a SMART way to get us to not notice your change in prediction about Intel going bankrupt.
I can't even believe you're REAL! You're some 19 year old idiot posting from grammy's basment and I BET you're an Intel fan but just want to make AMD'ers look stupid, which you've done a fantastic job with.
And one last thing....I don't believe you were right on ANY of your predictions, were you!
HAHAHAHAHA, YOU'RE SUCH A DOUCHEBAG, SHARIKOU!
Sharikou... I like your coolness in facing the heated hatred from those intel fanbois.
It seems to me that in terms of making arguments (valid or not, solid or speculative), you're quite above their level... :)
abinstein - you're as big a douche as Sharifreak is, get off his jock.
Coolness? I'm surprised he had the balls to change it given how many times he's been called on his bullshit "predictions".
Notice he quickly put up another article that pushes everything so far down the page so no one will notice his failure.
He, you, his other cock-gobbling friends, fail. At understanding technology, at understanding simple elementary economics, at life. So just shut your hole and go give Sharicunt a good asspounding!
Don't forget the reacharound!!!
Abinstein
Sharikou... I like your coolness in facing the heated hatred from those intel fanbois.
It seems to me that in terms of making arguments (valid or not, solid or speculative), you're quite above their level... :)
...of stupidity of course.
To the person who came up with the concept of "if IPC is lower when the die size is bigger than the competition, the engineers must have not done a good job", you're just as much as a retard like sharidouche.
Your predictions don't matter as much as the facts.
And the fact is that you are an idiot.
LOL
This comment has been removed by the author.
yomamafor2,
abinstein is in denial about his affiliation to AMD.
Yeah, IPC being dictated by die size. Go figure, his 15 minutes of fame.
ROFLMAO
Anandtech wrote in article:
"AMD has a strong technology portfolio that keeps the company going even when business is bad, putting the company YEARS AHEAD of Intel in in areas like the server market."
Link of the article:
http://www.anandtech.com/showdoc.aspx?i=3114&p=1
I don’t happen to think Intel is going BK anytime soon based on their history but a few points in that direction:
1) The Pennsylvania Railroad made a profit right up till their BK. They didn’t do it by laying off 30% of the workforce. Does anyone know how they stayed in the black right to the moment of doom?
2) I hope those that favor Intel and make a point of how much profit they are reporting have the same positive thoughts about the Oil Company profits when you pull into a station and fill up your car with $3.00 a gallon gas. The Oil Companies only make 8-11% profit. Monopolies like Microsoft and Intel (nearly so) do a bit better than that most of the time which means we are all paying an inflated price for what we get from both.
3) Laying off 30% of your work force in a flat market isn’t just trimming the fat as one Intel employee said it was. This on top of reporting pretty good profits will create a lot of bad blood within the organization as a whole. Bad blood will create its own attrition and negative results down the road.
Like I said, I don’t think they are going BK anytime soon but they sure are acting like they are.
"Ph"ony "Ph"ony "Ph"ony "D"octorate
You missed one small item to include in your trend.
The ever increasing profit correlation to reduced employement
The rate of employee reduction is 10,000/year, with the current 80,000 they have 8 years to reach end goal.
The INTEL math is saying 10,000 = 2 billion / year
Year one: 10,000 less employees 2 billion more profits
Year 2: 20,000 less employees 4 billion more profits
Year 3: 30,000 less employees 6 billion more profits
Year 4: 40,000 less employees 8 billion more profits
Year 5: 50,000 less employees 10 billion more profits
Year 6: 60,000 less employees 12 billion more profits
Year 8: all employees gone. INTEL profits at 18 billion and a record for any company in history.
Simply astounding trend from the "B"ig "K"ahuna BK company.
2) I hope those that favor Intel and make a point of how much profit they are reporting have the same positive thoughts about the Oil Company profits when you pull into a station and fill up your car with $3.00 a gallon gas. The Oil Companies only make 8-11% profit. Monopolies like Microsoft and Intel (nearly so) do a bit better than that most of the time which means we are all paying an inflated price for what we get from both.
Hey Thom, would you please let your friends Christian Howell, Abinstein, only_amd, pezal (who made the dumbest post of all time), and one_molester know that the next time they accuse Intel of pricing its chips too low, that you are saying Intel prices its chips too high?
Or are you another fanboy like them who will say that Intel prices every chip simultaneously too low and too high to fit whatever anti-Intel rant you are going off on at the moment?
(I think the second option is probably more accurate)
In Q2 2008 we'll be able to say that AMD lost boatloads of money right up until the point it went bankrupt... and Sharikou will probably be on the roof with the SWAT team surrounding him.
Chuckula,
So Intel is making money hand over fist with inflated priced.
Or, we can buy products that are inferior from AMD for the same price.
Hmmm... I don't care what company makes more profits, I want the better product for the buck.
It's not Intel's fault that AMD is incompetent.
Scott: Read my post again.. I'm bashing stupid AMD fanboys who complain that the same chip from Intel is both over & under priced at the same time.
No - he's just a bitch period. Whine's like a bitch, cry's like a bitch, denies facts like a bitch, just a general all around bitch.
You only get upset cause you know I'm right. But I bet you wouldn't have anything to say in person.
Besmirching character can be considered libel. It can also cause a removal of consciousness.
Scott,
I guess since Intel's incompetence has me using a crappy Lenovo P4, I'd say AMD is doing good.
To all,
Sharikou has you so screwed up you don't even know what's going on in real life, do you?
Since you have no character then there's really nothing to besmirch. Since you're so fond of quoting legal precedents (which you never really reasearch you just spout off about), if you tak the time and looked, you'd find that blogging and anonymous comments are protected under the first amendment and as such are protected from legal action. My comments as to your "character" are wholly my opinion, and thus protected, so go take a flying leap you sperm-guzzler.
LOL Chuck. Sorry, I was in attack mode from being insulted by Chris.
I agree.
AMD fanbois try to fight both sides of the pricing argument on Intel, it's quite humorous.
I wonder if Sharikou will do a blog entry on AMD's 3Q07 Earnings (Operating Loss) Statement?
Sorry what was the timeline?
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