Tuesday, September 26, 2006

Charlie running in bunny suit

I am surprised that Intel allowed this free advertisement for AMD and DELL in the IDF.

When he wrote that DELL would not go AMD article, I told him he was wrong, I told him DELL had to go AMD, but he did not believe it. He is good at IT stuff but bad at financial analysis.

Some of my statements:

"Conroe was the last straw that pushed DELL to AMD.",
"DELL went AMD not because Conroe is not good, but because Conroe is good."
"Conroe fatally wounded Intel, Kentsfield will BK Intel".

INQ folks will never understand the above.

24 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://www.theinquirer.net/images/articles/bunnytwo.jpg
Come sit on his lap:)

2:19 PM, September 26, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You "told" him? As in, you picked up the phone and called? Or went to his home or business, sat down with him, and "told him?" As in, your voice to his ears, over the phone or in person? Or perhaps an email, one that he read and to which he replied?

Yeah, did'nt think so.

You also told US that Intel would lose money last quarter (over a billion in profits instead) and you told US Intel will lose money this quarter, you also told US Intel would go BK in just 5 more quarters.

You also said you wanted to benchmark Woodcrest yourself, which you must have done and saw it kick Opteron in the face, because you suddenly shut up about it.

AMD fanbois predicted Dell would sell AMD pretty much every quarter since 1996. They also predicted Apple would buy AMD. We see how those are turning out.

2:51 PM, September 26, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

Or perhaps an email, one that he read and to which he replied?



Yes. I told him he was wrong and he shot back saying I was wrong.

As for Intel's BK, why don't you wait and see.

3:39 PM, September 26, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

You also said you wanted to benchmark Woodcrest yourself,

There is no more need to do this benchmark. Before Woodcrest, people were in wait and see mode. Right after Woodcrest, IBM and DELL went Opteron in a big way, SUN launched 8P Opteron that frags 16P Itanium II. People can get Opteron servers from these big vendors. Woodcrest is ultra low end only.

3:42 PM, September 26, 2006  
Anonymous Randy said...

The anon above sounds pretty angry, like maybe he lost a similar bet as Charlie.

3:42 PM, September 26, 2006  
Anonymous Edward said...

One thing is sure to me: Charlie had no clue. He slap at his own face several times over processor news and "predictions." It's like 4 out of 5 articles of his lately are either totally pointless or hopeless.

4:24 PM, September 26, 2006  
Anonymous enumae said...

Sharikou I thought I read somewhere that 2P is 80% of the server space, and if so, if Intel is beating AMD in 2P thats alot of chips that AMD is not selling, your thoughts.

4:42 PM, September 26, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dont diss the inquirer like that, that news source is the Doctor's favorite site to get tech information againt intel from.

5:18 PM, September 26, 2006  
Anonymous netrama said...

IDF is crap ...what kind of developers are present ..would that also include the press.. all the developers who need info ..already have them or they dont really care..another BS marketing exercise by Intel..

5:28 PM, September 26, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Conroe was the last straw that pushed DELL to AMD."

Try reading Rahul Sood's blog. Dell switched because VooDooPC was winning in performance reviews, and all that it took for silly Dell to supply with AMD was some emails.

6:15 PM, September 26, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

Dell switched because VooDooPC was winning in performance reviews

No. DELL switched because it would otherwise go down like Enron. I reminded the stories of Jeff Skilling and Ken Lay to DELL... Both Skilling and Lay were far more creative than DELL.

7:24 PM, September 26, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

Sharikou I thought I read somewhere that 2P is 80% of the server space

The trend is changing. 4P is now the main stream ($6000), 2P is the ultra low end ($1000), 8p 16 core is performance ($30000).

7:26 PM, September 26, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://voodoopc.blogspot.com/2006/08/where-theres-smoke-theres-fire.html

7:57 PM, September 26, 2006  
Blogger 180 Sharikou said...

Please don't make up data. DP is over 90% of global servers by volume. MP is under 10%. However, the revenue is higher in proportion for MP and AMD is definitely doing well in that space. But they are starting to lose momentum in DP with Woodie. Watch Otellini's webcast - over 1 million Woodcrest's shipped in 3 months accounting for 40% of the DP market.

Joe Osha has predicted 40% share for AMD in servers by 2007. By unit volume, I call his bluff. However, where AMD will continue to win is on MP where the margins are good. Even Tulsa will not really make a dent unless Intel brings the price war home there too.

8:20 PM, September 26, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

According to Wall Street Journal, a good chunk of AMD's lawsuit against Intel was thrown out tonight. Worse, though, it evidently was dismissed with prejudice and AMD now OWES INTEL $55 Million for legal fees thus far incurred. Probably explains the stock today. Interesting to see what caused this over next couple of days.....

8:30 PM, September 26, 2006  
Anonymous enumae said...

Sharikou said...

"The trend is changing. 4P is now the main stream ($6000)"

How does a 2P (quad core) theoretically compare to a 4P (dual core)?

Also if you could, how about a 2P Cloverton on a motherboard with dual independent busses?

8:36 PM, September 26, 2006  
Anonymous enumae said...

netrama said...

"another BS marketing exercise by Intel."

Maybe, but there are alot of people who read news papers and Techwebsites that are seeing a blitz of Intel marketing.

This is AMD's weekness, they do not or will not spend the money to get into the general public, word of mouth only goes so far.

9:53 PM, September 26, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I predict use of AMD will lead to Dell's downfall or at a minimum them losing more and more market share over the coming years.

As they are no longer getting any deals from Intel or early capacity/chip access, and add in the fact increased enginerring and logistics support for supporting both AMD and Intel chips (increaesd MB/platform qualifications, increased # of SKU's, additional service training, etc...) there thin margins will continue to be pressured.

10:01 PM, September 26, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You should also be surprised that AMD (via ATI) is actually helping to sponsor IDF!

10:02 PM, September 26, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Interesting to see what caused this over next couple of days....."

What caused this was past cases with similar situations - products produced in foreign countries (Germaany/Asia) and sold in other countries do not fall under US antiturst law. AMD ignored this fact in their complaint and all previous legal precedence on this and as a result got slapped!

The only part of the lawsuit that falls under US jurisdiction is chips sold within the US. (which I'm guessing is <30% of all AMD chips sold). AMD does have recourse with other foreign court systems for the other portions of their sales if they desire, but the US does not have jurisdiction.

10:13 PM, September 26, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2006/09/26/intel_fourcore_server/

Intel CTO Justin Rattner brought a "dustbin of obsolete technology" on stage during his IDF keynote. The executive peeked into it and, rather than finding an Itanium chip as we had expected, pulled out a product from AMD.

"Wait a minute, it looks like there is an Opteron in here," Rattner said.

-------------------

I wonder if that dustbin is big enough to store a laid-off Intel employee.

And I wonder if the laid-off Intel employees would buy PCs with Intel chips inside or AMD chips inside. Just wondering...

-Longan-

10:22 PM, September 26, 2006  
Blogger Steel Smack said...

According to Wall Street Journal, a good chunk of AMD's lawsuit against Intel was thrown out tonight. Worse, though, it evidently was dismissed with prejudice and AMD now OWES INTEL $55 Million for legal fees thus far incurred. Probably explains the stock today. Interesting to see what caused this over next couple of days.....
I don't see anywhere saying that AMD owes Intel anything, maybe I'm missing it, but the three or four articles I've looked at say nothing about AMD picking up Intel's legal fees. Also, the judge threw out paragraphs on 20 pages of a 428 page filing. Not a "huge chunk" like so many Intel bandwagoners are saying.

Intel may have won a very small battle, but they will lose the war, mainly because they can't play fair. And why would they, they had a worse product for 3 to 5 years, why would they let the better product become main stream? That would have killed them (maybe not bankrupt, but close). No matter what happens in this case, AMD is the winner, because now Intel knows they have to play fair, and the next time AMD has a better product for 3 to 5 years Intel will lose a TON of market share because they won't have the world's biggest PC company selling their product exclusively. Which leads us back to the topic at hand. Nice suit Charlie.

6:03 AM, September 27, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yo Pretender...

Notice all the neat new Dell ads with the INTEL jingle.

Dell may have gone AMD, but they advertise INTEL.

What do you think.. got a good prospective Dr... Maybe INTEL going BK

8:35 AM, September 27, 2006  
Blogger Scientia from AMDZone said...

As far as the lawsuit goes I have been unable to find any indication that the judge has given Intel any court costs. The fact that part of the case was dropped is not that important. AMD has lawsuits filed in Japan and Germany. Japan has its own anti-trust case going against Intel as does the EU. The lawsuit is working as it should because it is preventing Intel from using illegal tactics to block AMD.

4P servers are not the main market. However, 4P servers are more popular in Asia. Intel makes half of its money in Asia. Until early this year AMD was not competitive with Intel in Asia in 4P servers. However, now that IBM, HP, Sun, and Dell are all offering 4P Opteron servers AMD should be much more competitive in Asia.

Intel has a big problem trying to take market share from AMD with Woodcrest. Yes, Woodcrest is very competitive in terms of the 2-way market. The problem is that Woodcrest doesn't have enough volume to fill the demand. And, the Prescott based Xeons are not very competitive with Opteron. Intel really cannot block Opteron until it can fill all of the previous demand for Prescott based Xeon with Woodcrest. Intel has to deal with a lack of certified systems and the fact that its best chipset, the 5000 series only uses FBDIMM which AMD has now dropped planned support for and Intel has greatly reduced. This will not help Intel sell Woodcrest systems. Intel will need to replace the 5000 chipset.

Also, the current talk about Dell simply sounds like sour grapes for Intel fans. The real reason why HP, Dell, and IBM now offer more AMD based servers is because Sun offered more Opteron servers and they were the only company to substantially increase share during the first part of the year. Since Dell decided not to support Itanium, their only choice was to go with AMD for 4P servers. Once they broke their Intel-only position there was no reason not to diversify a bit. This does not indicate that they are embracing AMD like Sun, for example.

Gateway broke its Intel-only stance when it bought eMachines. It has been said that eMachines was all that kept Gateway from bankruptcy. However, eMachines and Tiger Direct both sell Intel systems. Secondly, Dell hasn't stopped selling Intel systems. Intel still has SGI as an Intel-only customer while AMD currently has Sun and Cray. AMD has several big wins in HPC but I haven't heard of any for Woodcrest yet. HPC tends to mirror regular servers so this would be an indication that Woodcrest has not hit its stride yet.

Intel needs a non-FBDIMM chipset. Intel needs CSI in silicon instead of as a future design concept. Someone might note that some of the instructions that AMD is adding are to compete with Itanium, not Woodcrest (since Woodcrest is not in this class yet). Itanium has been growing rapidly and it will be interesting to see if this slows any in 2007. AMD however needs to release 4x4 and 65nm as soon as possible as the 4th quarter tends to be the largest.

The bottom line is that I would be stunned if AMD does not exceed its 2005 numbers for total revenue and market share by both revenue and volume. I expect Intel to do worse than 2005 in terms of total revenue and in terms of market share both by revenue and volume. I already made this statement over at Sharikou180.

I've also already given the reasons in my blog that I don't believe that 2007 will be like 2002. I've seen other people try to draw an analogy but I don't believe that one can be made. I don't see AMD's suddenly losing marketshare as it did in Q2 02. 2006 should be a good year for AMD and the worst year Intel has had since 2001. I expect 2007 to be another good year for AMD. It will also be a better year for Intel than 2006 since it will have reduced costs. However, AMD's costs will drop more than Intel's during 2007.

I'm sorry but I've never seen a real argument from Sharikou on why Intel would go bankrupt. Intel is pretty much guaranteed more than half of the market through the end of 2008 because AMD cannot increase volume any faster than that.

There simply is no escaping math on this. Intel currently uses 3 300mm FABs to make most of its processors. Each of these FABs is larger than FAB 36. AMD won't have two 300mm FABs until end of 2008. If AMD did see declines it could reduce or cancel orders from Chartered. If it found itself with extra capacity it could FAB some of ATI's chips to save foundry costs.

However, Intel doesn't really have a fall back strategy like this. The only question that I have had is whether Intel will find itself with extra capacity once the two 45nm FABs come online. I suppose if this happened Intel could sell one of its existing FABs.

8:43 AM, September 27, 2006  

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