Thursday, July 20, 2006

AMD posts 53% year/year revenue growth

AMD posted its 2Q06 results, showing 53% revenue growth over 2Q05, compared to Intel's massive 13% year/year drop. Stockholder equity now stands at $4.85 billion, an over 40% increase from 4Q05. . Excluding inventory, current assets minus current liability is $1.8 billion (compared to Intel's $4 b). Current ratio stands at 2.3 (Intel: 1.98).

AMD expects a strong 2H06. Specifically, Hector Ruiz reckons that 3Q06 (the current quarter) will be above seasonality no matter what. Why? You ask. As I analysyed before, DELL will go AMD full force around the time of Conroe launch. Since Conroe launch is scheduled on July 27, 2006, AMD will see DELL selling AMD64 products for two full months of Q3.

On technology front, 65nm products and will start shipping and K8L quadcore will be demoed by the end of year.

27 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Net income down 60% quarter-over-quarter. If Intel's going bankrupt in 5 quarters with a net profit 10X the size of AMD, AMD will be bankrupt in 5 weeks.

1:54 PM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

FYI, on finance.yahoo.com, I am seeing a report from CNNMoney.com saying "Sales slipped to $1.22 billion from $1.26 billion a year ago", and MarketWatch says "Sales came in at $1.22 billion versus $1.26 billion a year ago".

However, on the official AMD press release, I am seeing: "In the second quarter of 2005, excluding the Memory Products segment, AMD reported sales of $797 million". If you add in revenue from the now spun-off memory group, then you get $1.26 billion for Q2-05.

You will also see:

"As a result of Spansion Inc.'s initial public offering (IPO) in December 2005, financial results for periods in 2006 compared to periods in 2005 do not correlate directly. All references to and comparisons with periods in 2005 exclude the results of the Company's former Memory Products segment."

2:02 PM, July 20, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

Net income down 60% quarter-over-quarter. If Intel's going bankrupt in 5 quarters with a net profit 10X the size of AMD, AMD will be bankrupt in 5 weeks.

No. As long as you have cash to pay debt, you are fine. AMD has little debt and cash is increasing. Intel has $2.6 billion debt + IRS tax demand, and Intel's cash is burning fast.

2:02 PM, July 20, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

"Sales came in at $1.22 billion versus $1.26 billion a year ago".

Well. A year ago, AMD owns 60% of Spansion, today, it owns 38%. If you wanted to add Spansion's results, AMD's revenue would be $1.9 billion.

2:04 PM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

No. As long as you have cash to pay debt, you are fine. AMD has little debt and cash is increasing. Intel has $2.6 billion debt + IRS tax demand, and Intel's cash is burning fast.
Intel simply by not buying back stock can free up 8Billion in cash flow every year. AMD now behind in performance and process technology is already on its way to losing money again. Looks like its last 5 years of cumulative net losses of over $1 billion is set to increase again.

2:15 PM, July 20, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

Intel simply by not buying back stock can free up 8Billion in cash flow every year.

It's too late already. Intel has little cash little, with $1 billion loss per quarter. Intel will BK in 5 quarters.

2:19 PM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's too late already. Intel has little cash little, with $1 billion loss per quarter. Intel will BK in 5 quarters.

Except Intel is not losing money, Intel is making money. Even in a bad quarter, it has made more money in 1 quarter than AMD has in 40 years of existence.

2:31 PM, July 20, 2006  
Blogger fcf said...

Just did a back of the envelope cash flow for amd... nothing gnarly to report... cash declined from March '06 to June '06 about 102mm... but for no reasons to get excited about...

Going through the balance sheet items, the big drivers were decrease in a/r (+250 cash impact), inventory build (-70mm roughly, increase in ppe (more wafer starts, capex... -289 mm), increase in other assets (-46), paydown in accounts payable (-140mm), increase in compensation accruals (-97mm)..

leaving out the other stuff which is mostly noise, we get a cash decrease from these items of 119mm... not too far from the reported 102mm decrease in cash.

So we don't have a horrible working capital situation like we do at intel. Even if you allow for a big decline in net (say 200mm profit declines to breakeven in one quarter...) cash would go from -100 ==> -300... not exactly the end of the world for them... while intel coughed up a bit of a cash fur ball...

2:32 PM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Graham said...

Yet again, for the second straight quarter AMDs profit is just a fraction of Intel's tax bill. According to Sharifraud, Intel's going bankrupt by Autumn next year.... yeah right!

Want to put your money where your mouth is Shari-fraud? My $500 says Intel will not be bankrupt by Q3'07. You seem to putting a lot of if's in front of your last bankruptcy prediction. You sound a little unsure of yourself.

4:23 PM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Tritosh said...

" Anonymous said...

It's too late already. Intel has little cash little, with $1 billion loss per quarter. Intel will BK in 5 quarters.

Except Intel is not losing money, Intel is making money. Even in a bad quarter, it has made more money in 1 quarter than AMD has in 40 years of existence"
ok, then rest the debts, taxes, employement payment, distribution, marketting.. what you will get? :D

4:38 PM, July 20, 2006  
Blogger netrama said...

How is it that Intel is releasing a Quad core in a few months ?? I think they designed their dual core for laptops like in 2 weeks time , where as the Turion X2 took nearly an Year ..Looks all Intel is upto is ,some copy and paste work ..without any design involved at this rate I wont be surprised if they come out with an 8 Core chip in Q1 2007...

4:47 PM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

What I found interesting was that if you look at quarter on quarter results, AMD's revenue went down
~9% but net income went down ~50% (this means expenses are growing more rapidly). Also gross margin dipped 2%; it will likely drop more once announced price cuts kick in.

Year on year looks good but the discrepancy between revenue and net income decline quarter on quarter is troubling. Is this due to starting to depreciate F36?

5:07 PM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Your kookish financial analysis of Intel's demise are hilarious.

Why don't you put your money where your mouth is. If you're wrong (what are the chances of that, 1 in 1 billion right?) and Intel is stronger than ever in 5 quarters how about you admit how completely full of crap you are and end this silly blog, or concentrate on AMD technology instead of this laughable, ridiculous vendetta you have against Intel?

5:58 PM, July 20, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

So we don't have a horrible working capital situation like we do at intel.

I pointed out that if AMD and Intel sells chips all at $50 a piece, Intel will BK in one quarter, AMD will BK in one year. At ASP of $100, AMD will make very handsome profit and Intel will BK in 4 quarters.

6:13 PM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Shakirou,

I've watched you for some time now. You're obviously intelligent, regardless if you're right or wrong on any points.

However, from a clinical perspective, you clearly have an obsessive disorder.

Just skimming through your blog here and other blogs elsewhere, I can see that hours and hours of your time has been spent expounding about Intel and how evil Intel is.

For your own good, please, take a break from computers and newspapers and business matters and spend some time doing something else. This isn't healthy. I don't think even AMD executives spend as much time thinking about their company and products as you do.

They are just companies, with products that will come and go and really make no difference on the world as a whole when you look at the big picture.

I don't think you'll let this post stay, so this is obviously a personal message to you from someone who cares about other people telling you that you need to stop what you are doing because it's beyond abnormal behavior, it appears to be consuming you.

6:31 PM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Intel blog notice:

Will all Intel employees on this blog please report to human resources to turn in your company badge. Paul would like to thank you for your service and is handing out FREE p4’s in the cafeteria.

Intel Personal Dept.

7:12 PM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"On technology front, 65nm products and will start shipping and K8L quadcore will be demoed by the end of year."

Man if Intel, doesn't hurry up and get there 65nm process ramped up with product shipping soon they could be in real trouble.

7:45 PM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

ok, then rest the debts, taxes, employement payment, distribution, marketting.. what you will get? :D
That's accounted for, because Intel had a NET income of $880 million. The net referring to the fact that it is the amount of revenue exceeding all expenses and taxes.

8:28 PM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Man if Intel, doesn't hurry up and get there 65nm process ramped up with product shipping soon they could be in real trouble.

Conroe was always planned to ship between July 23rd and 27th so it isn't late yet. Intel has 3 65nm Fabs up and will have a 4th by year-end in time to help supply quad core capacity.

9:39 PM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I was being sarcastic, but thanks for pointing things out to the less knowledgeable readers. :)

10:18 PM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Man if Intel, doesn't hurry up and get there 65nm process ramped up with product shipping soon they could be in real trouble.

"This is last year. I want my facts back."

Intel has had 65nm ramped for a long time, try to keep up.

10:54 PM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Net income down 60% quarter-over-quarter. If Intel's going bankrupt in 5 quarters with a net profit 10X the size of AMD, AMD will be bankrupt in 5 weeks.

Can you do math?

Intel as 4X the size of AMD market share.
Intel as 2X the size of NVIDIA, ATI, SIS, VIA GPU market share.
Intel as 2X the size of NVIDIA, ATI, SIS, VIA chipset market share.
Intel as Wimax and other network.

Now do you want one company that focus on one thing (processors) and as only 20% of that market piece, have the same profits?

4:13 AM, July 21, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Man if Intel, doesn't hurry up and get there 65nm process ramped up with product shipping soon they could be in real trouble.

Besides PD9xx and Core 2 Duo and Solo (very little % of Intel complete list of products), which .65nm parts are selling?

Every one says AMD is late with .65nm parts. But isn’t all those Celeron, P4, PD 8xx and Pentium M, Celeron M all 90nm parts?

4:27 AM, July 21, 2006  
Anonymous Richard said...

Want to put your money where your mouth is Shari-fraud? My $500 says Intel will not be bankrupt by Q3'07. You seem to putting a lot of if's in front of your last bankruptcy prediction. You sound a little unsure of yourself.

You do realise that this is information based on official statistics released by official sources?

If you disagree, simply back it up with information etc.

You can't just say he's wrong and obessive because you *think* so.

Turn it into a debate, not some silly arguments.

5:02 AM, July 21, 2006  
Anonymous Graham said...

Richard somebody says:
You do realise that this is information based on official statistics released by official sources?

If you disagree, simply back it up with information etc.

You can't just say he's wrong and obessive because you *think* so.

Turn it into a debate, not some silly arguments.


I don't want to debate Sharikou. Not because I think it is difficult. It is because he is clearly obsessed with his line of thought. By making a bet with him I want to know if he actually believes his bullshit. Can he back up what he says with hard earned cash? Otherwise this page is for the pure purposes of slander and wild allegations which he doesn't at all need to back up. His arguments are all cherry picked and no matter how many times you point him to facts, he sees only what he wants to see. He can't even concede that Conroe chips are better than FX-62.

10:21 AM, July 21, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Besides PD9xx and Core 2 Duo and Solo (very little % of Intel complete list of products), which .65nm parts are selling?"

Actually, Intel isn't selling any .65nm, that technology won't exist for another 30 years or so. As for 65nm:

Ever here of mobile chips (Core)?

Very little % of product types, but PD9xx, Core and Core 2(eventually) are a large % of overall volume.

2:20 PM, July 21, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"He can't even concede that Conroe chips are better than FX-62."

That's because he's right - isn't there that on ScienceMark benchmark that proves this? (Just Kidding)

2:23 PM, July 21, 2006  

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