Wednesday, July 19, 2006

Some entertainment

Someone asked me to do another phone call transcript, but I don't think I can outdo this one here -- Intel's 2Q06 CC transcript. If you have the time, you should listen to it, much more fun than Jay Leno. One thing I noticed was that Joe Osha was allowed in after he called for Paul O's head lat Q and was banned. Joe asked a philosophical question which seem have irritated Paul.

John Lau asked a DELL-AMD question. Adam Parker got quite emtional, I wonder why. Any way, Paul O and Andy B both think $4.33 billion inventory is very healthy.

43 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

You know what's funniest of all about it? The announcement of Q4 Kentsfield.

4xwhat?

What kind of idiot would conceivably want a 2 processor system for 4 cores when a single processor system is available.

Laugh it up all you want at Intel's troubles, AMD's in for a lot worse. I don't wish it on them (AMD) they're a good company but in a way I do just to shut you scoundrels up.

10:08 PM, July 19, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

What kind of idiot would conceivably want a 2 processor system for 4 cores when a single processor system is available.

Dude, when Intel gets 2x2 cores, AMD will have 2x4 cores.

10:23 PM, July 19, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Dude, when Intel gets 2x2 cores, AMD will have 2x4 cores."

I thought initial AMD 4 core solution was server only, no? Wouldn't this mean it will not be compatible with 4x4 platform? Is there even a release date for 4x4 yet?

Are you saying AMD will have a 4x4 solution which will allow folks to plug in 2 quad cores in Q4 this year? If so that'll be great for the consumer.

Maybe I'm just confused - if so I apologize in advance.

10:34 PM, July 19, 2006  
Blogger netrama said...

Yup it is pretty humorous ..
I do not understand what Paul means by this :
"Consumer notebooks tend to sell for a lot less than business notebooks and they tend to use a lower-end microprocessor."
Shouldnt it be the opposite , unless 'business notebooks' are strictly used for supercomputing ,rather than word,excel and PPT , and consumer laptops are not used for DVD Ripping and Encoding/Video editing ha ha...

All this from the guy on top at Intel ..it is really scary ..

10:44 PM, July 19, 2006  
Anonymous amd's retribution said...

The first poster is such a moron. 4x4 is better than a dumb Kentsfield. Kentsfield will be bandwidth starved. One socket on FSB? How retarded. Only an Intellite like poster 1 would embrace that solution.

AMD has the far more elegant solution and remember, Kentsfield is limited to XE CPUs. What do we learn from this? Intel uses an inelegant solution, a bandwidth starved solution, and even a more expensive solution. 2 3800x2 would be able to frag a Kentsfield at over 50% sadly for Intel fans and do it at lower power to boot.

Intel's days are numbered. It's led by a buffoon that has the company running around in circles and it can only use lying benchmarks to prove a point. Intel, despite its huge amounts of dollars will hit a wall eventually and soon, the bribes will no longer work as the paid pumpers begin to realize that Intel will go bankrupt. Why do you think Intel is going bankrupt? It's paying too much in bribes. I feel sorry for Intel almost.

You see, AMD defends the vanguard of the computer enthusiast and more important, it preserves innovation. Intel is just a follower that uses Itanic solutions with 1.3 billion transistors when AMD can beat it at less than 1/5 the amount. Intel's days are indeed numbered and Kentsfield is an asshole.

Sharikou's right anyways. By the time Kentsfield is out, AMD users like me will be using dual K8Ls and even budget users will be using them. AMD uses price cuts to support us. Finally AMD will cut through the lies. Remember, clock for clock, K8L is about 50% faster and maybe even 100% faster with Torrenza than a CONroe. The paid pumpers won't show it but anyone with half a brain knows.

Haha. Then again, Intel CPUs only have half a brain. Intel is such a lazy fool. They only package two CPUs on one die when AMD uses on CPU with 4 cores. Big difference. Intel only increases latency.

From exploding laptops to CONroe'd benchmarks to Itanics, one can only wonder how Intel still has a user base. In just a few months, finally, AMD will gain its retribution by permanently fragging Intel at 70-120% of its performance in Vista, and every other application, and multitasking with 4x4 and 4x8 and at cheaper prices as well. Intel won't even have anything remotely competitive until 2012 with Gesher and its ccHT knockoff and AMD users will have dual Gesher performance in just two months. How terribly sad...

11:46 PM, July 19, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sharikou,

This is the same HR that Sat with you at your exit interview. One more time, do you want to tell your readers where you worked and why you were fired?

If you do not want to be open with your readers, I will. YOu can choose not to publish this message like the other message but I will make sure your readers will know about it. By the way, I am no longer under a gag order as I do not work for the company anymore.

12:00 AM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I've just realized why Intel's in such a panic, The truth is that the best motherboard chip to support their core 2duo is the ATI600 and that Amd is going to buy that out from under their noses. ouch!

2:34 AM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Elky Mart said...

I for one would love to know where you worked. I've been reading your blog with great interest for quite some time now and it has actually presuaded me to buy a quad amd machine for my web site...

3:39 AM, July 20, 2006  
Blogger Entrophos said...

Sharikou,

This is the same HR that Sat with you at your exit interview. One more time, do you want to tell your readers where you worked and why you were fired?

If you do not want to be open with your readers, I will. YOu can choose not to publish this message like the other message but I will make sure your readers will know about it. By the way, I am no longer under a gag order as I do not work for the company anymore.


Even if Sharikou has an axe to grind from a previous employment situation, does it really matter? Look at Chris Tom from AMDZone. He was a former employee of Dell and slams them constantly. That doesn't make his articles crap, just colored by some bias based on personal experiences and emotions. The same goes here assuming that Sharikou is in a similar circumstance. Of course, you could also be lying through your teeth in a lame attempt to try to harm his credibility.

BTW - No one is forcing you to come here and read what he is writing.If you don't like his commentary, don't read it. The same goes for everyone here, including me. I don't agree with everything he says 100%, but I find his articles interesting and provocative. I find myself reading the discussions here more than on my other usual haunts lately.

6:46 AM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Intel uses an inelegant solution, a bandwidth starved solution, and even a more expensive solution. 2 3800x2 would be able to frag a Kentsfield at over 50% sadly for Intel fans and do it at lower power to boot."

You sadly lack any logic.

Today's "bandwidth starved" FSB 1066 Conroe and Dual 1333 FSB Woodcrest are pushing Opteron right down into the weeds and giving it hard. Like hardcore hard.

If Intel can make a 1.7 billion transistor Montecito, you don't think they can engineer a cache system that will make Kentfield scream?

Today, there is no AMD chip that can even compare to Intel's best. Intel frags AMD on virtually every test and benchmark -- INCLUDING Apache server and other tests that AMD used to always win.

In short, Intel figured out how to make a cache system that makes up for any issues with their FSB architecture.

Kentfield is going to keep slamming AMD down even further into the weeds. Intel will have 4 cores on one chip with a very advanced cache It will pound AMD hard. Like 4Ghz EE double-pumped double-wide hardcore hard.

On the other hand, AMD will be lumbering with the equivalent of 4 AM2-DUDLIE cores. Talk about trying to drive on uninflated tires. No matter how fast that HyperTransport driveshaft is, AMD has got flat tires. So there is no way the car can go fast.

There is nothing objective -- nothing whatsoever -- that gives an indication that AMD will make anything ever again that competes with Intel on performance or even performance/watt.

AMD had one good design made by people that don't work there anymore. Face the facts!

Today AMD is technically bankrupt and is desperately grasping at straws trying to cobble together something to sell. Unable to invent anything new, AMD is just throwing their various parts together and hoping... so desperately hoping.

Alas, hope will not be enough. AMD will soon be in the arms of the bankruptcy courts being sold to China for pennies on the dollar.

7:59 AM, July 20, 2006  
Blogger fcf said...

sharikou, quick question about the 2 stocks... with a big inventory overhang, and ramping wafer starts through '07... and intel trying to regain 80% market share with amd gunning for 40-50% share... doesn't this make for a very ugly scenario for both companies through all of next year? Even if AMD has differentiated product, won't buyers use their leverage (and INTC's desperation) to push ASPs below what companies expect and could result in a lot of pain for both of them? Why shouldn't I be short both intc and amd at least for the next 9 months? Even if intc were to write off its inventory, ramping wafer starts at both companies will imply a market overcapacity no???

8:57 AM, July 20, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

sharikou, quick question about the 2 stocks... with a big inventory overhang, and ramping wafer starts through '07... and intel trying to regain 80% market share with amd gunning for 40-50% share... doesn't this make for a very ugly scenario for both companies through all of next year?

No. The only outcome of the price war is that Intel will be dead. In fact, I suggested that AMD should initiate a massive price war to finish Intel off once and for all.

The math is very simple if you consider the following factors

1) AMD's average CPU selling price was only $100 with all CPUs combined
2) Intel's was $150
3) AMD's doubling capacity in 5 months and goes higher
4) AMD's X2 3800+ beats P4D XE965
5) 90% of Intel's CPUs are slower than P4D 965

From the above, AMD can literally sell its CPUs at $60 average price (Opterons, Turions, X2s combibined) and grow market share and revenue.

Intel on the other hand will definitely lose unit share, and with a crashing pricing structure, it will post massive losses.

9:46 AM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Graham said...

This is the same HR that Sat with you at your exit interview. One more time, do you want to tell your readers where you worked and why you were fired?

If you do not want to be open with your readers, I will. YOu can choose not to publish this message like the other message but I will make sure your readers will know about it. By the way, I am no longer under a gag order as I do not work for the company anymore.


It makes sense now... Please share with the world why Sharikou was fired. However, I doubt he will have the balls to publish it. Maybe he should do an article on why he was fired to "give his side of the story" so to speak. However, since he doesn't have the spine to put his money where his mouth is on his Intel bankruptcy claims I don't expect that he will talk about his humiliation of firing. Anyone want to take bets on what he was fired for? I say it was for downloading pr0n at work. Any other ideas???

Maybe I should run a blog with guesses as to what got Sharikou fired.

9:51 AM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Graham said...

No. The only outcome of the price war is that Intel will be dead. In fact, I suggested that AMD should initiate a massive price war to finish Intel off once and for all.

The math is very simple if you consider the following factors

1) AMD's average CPU selling price was only $100 with all CPUs combined
2) Intel's was $150
3) AMD's doubling capacity in 5 months and goes higher
4) AMD's X2 3800+ beats P4D XE965
5) 90% of Intel's CPUs are slower than P4D 965

From the above, AMD can literally sell its CPUs at $60 average price (Opterons, Turions, X2s combibined) and grow market share and revenue.

Intel on the other hand will definitely lose unit share, and with a crashing pricing structure, it will post massive losses.


This is stupid. Anyone at AMD listening to this? Do the opposite because Sharikou is a fool. We'll see what AMDs profits look like for Q2. I don't think they can sustain a price war longer than Intel can. In fact, as will be borne out by AMDs Q2 they will have lost market share in Q2 in important segments and that trend will continue through Q3 and Q4. It may be a small MS loss but a loss nonetheless. What does that mean? It means that AMD can't slash their ASP by 40% as you would suggest. That would hurt AMD a lot more than it would Intel. Intel has a lot of fat to cut and it is still profitable. However, AMD is relatively lean and is just barely profitable. I would imagine that is partly because they have to pay another foundry to make the chips that AMD can't make itself. That is not a good situation to be in. AMD needs fabs (its own fabs) yesterday and that isn't happening quickly enough. Intel is getting pretty good yields for Conroe and is ramping that up quickly. By Q4 I wouldn't be surprised if 50% of Intel's revenue comes from Core 2 architecture. AMD will be coming from behind in both performance and fab capacity. Again, not a good place to be for AMD.

In the end, none of this is good for either AMD or Intel though. It seems like AMD and Intel are willing to let go of a perfectly good duopoly for PC processors. AMD forced INtel's hand on this which was not a smart business move.

10:01 AM, July 20, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

I for one would love to know where you worked.

I of course never worked for either AMD or Intel, otherwise, it would be unethical for me not to disclose such association with these companies. Intel folks can take that statement to the Court. It's so amusing that Intel dudes are out of ammo...

10:03 AM, July 20, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

I don't think they can sustain a price war longer than Intel can.

Wrong. AMD can last longer because its lower cost structure, and lower per CPU cost. Intel has to have $7.5 billion revenue per quarter to stay cash flow positive. AMD only needs $800 million revenue per quarter to stay cash flow positive. If AMD can successfully eat enough market share and reduce Intel's quarterly revenue to $6.5 billion per quarter, Intel will BK in 5 quarters.

10:09 AM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Edward said...

I find all those personal attacks towards Sharikou from Intel fanboys very disgusting.

If you don't agree with his views, say your say and beat him with evidence. That at least is more constructive and doesn't waste other people's time to read. Why are you so interested in where he studied or where he worked? Does that for any matter affect the correctness (or wrongness) of his arguments? If he has to convince you with personal status, YOU are really pathetic.

Well, to be fair, he did make errors (e.g., he was too optimistic about AMD's earnings), but who doesn't? If anyone who had wrong prediction shall not speak more, you would not hear anything from the Intel management lately.

10:19 AM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

graham, AMD Q2 is already out. 9% down from Q1 but up 52% from the same period last year.

10:25 AM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"It makes sense now... Please share with the world why Sharikou was fired. However, I doubt he will have the balls to publish it. Maybe he should do an article on why he was fired to "give his side of the story" so to speak. However, since he doesn't have the spine to put his money where his mouth is on his Intel bankruptcy claims I don't expect that he will talk about his humiliation of firing. Anyone want to take bets on what he was fired for? I say it was for downloading pr0n at work. Any other ideas???

Maybe I should run a blog with guesses as to what got Sharikou fired."

WOW.

Seriously dewd, log off, get a life and accept the fact that you aren't going to agree with some people's viewpoints. Your ideas there verge on the edge of a stalker or a very obsessed, impulsive individual. When it comes to all matters online personally, I leave people's personal life out of it, period. If you're going to attack the man, attack his thoughts or his ideas, not his personal life, as attacking a person's character is a sure sign and a raised flag that YOU HAVE ALREADY LOST THE ARGUEMENT.

Agree to disagree and move on man, it's obvious you don't like Sharikou because he rags on your precious Intel. Grow some backbone and go hit up your favorite Intel site instead of wasting your and our time here reading your dribblespeak,thanks.

Signed,

-The rest of us in this blog

10:35 AM, July 20, 2006  
Blogger Entrophos said...

I don't think they can sustain a price war longer than Intel can.

Core won't ramp up quickly enough to stop a further slide in marketshare in the short term. That means flat/reduced sales when they are already producing many more CPUs than they can liquidate per quarter.

If you look at their balance sheet, they've burned through almost 1/2 of their cash and liquid assets in a single year.

They have at least 8x the operational overhead that AMD has just based on staff count alone. They can't afford to pay their staff without cash, which is depleting at an alarming rate based on their own reports.

They really can't afford a price war with their current bloated headcount and overhead. Logic would suggest that they would have to chop production dramatically and do immediate and large-scale layoffs to reduce costs.

Also, at the rate they are burning through their own cash, I wonder if they are actually making money? I'm wondering how they can post a 1.1bn profit when their assets+cash are decreasing at such an alarming rate. Corporate accounting is a mystery to me, but something isn't quite right here.

I'm boggled at their current leadership and their business decisions. They just don't seem to make sense to me, but then again I don't know the whole picture also. I just know that if I was an investor, I would be extremely nervous right now.

10:56 AM, July 20, 2006  
Blogger Michael said...

accourding to X-bit labs AMD plans to have up to 55% price cuts on its X2 processors, they can and will do it.

10:58 AM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

bigbagwolf is a bigger ho than big ho mike

IDIOT BITCH

11:03 AM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You know what's entertainment? Reading your stories! It makes me laugh every time!

11:12 AM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

i agree with the post above, its really disgusting stalker attitude we see in some of these posts.. none of those who critisize Sharikou is very intelligent, in any of theyre arguments, its all about gaming and intels lies for them. I hope even though some ppl dont like him that he'll continue making these articles i come everyday to read the newest update,even though i don't agree 100% its intelligent and interresting. and Sharikou keeps calm thats cool :)

//K-Leo

11:15 AM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Edward said...

Graham said: "This is stupid. Anyone at AMD listening to this? Do the opposite because Sharikou is a fool."

Have you seen this DigiTimes news about AMD widens price cuts? It seems AMD's going a direction more closely to what Sharikou suggested.

Maybe they are all fools...

Graham said: "In fact, as will be borne out by AMDs Q2 they will have lost market share in Q2 in important segments and that trend will continue through Q3 and Q4."

Intel's Paul Otellini said "We believe we lost a bit of microprocessor market segment share on a billings basis, but we gained a bit of a share on a consumption basis adjusting for inventory reductions."

I'm not sure what the "billings basis" and "inventory reductions" mean here. Can someone better at financials calrify that?

Graham said: "However, AMD is relatively lean and is just barely profitable. I would imagine that is partly because they have to pay another foundry to make the chips that AMD can't make itself."

Your imagination betrayed you, then. AMD is lean because it is historically lean when it grew up under Intel's monopolistic strategy. AMD can make its own processors; in fact it does it pretty well. It pays another foundry to make MORE of them because demand of its processors is growing too fast. Just look at AMD'syear-on-year marketshare and revenue growth.

Graham said: "Intel is getting pretty good yields for Conroe and is ramping that up quickly."

First, I don't know of any evidence to support that claim; second, I don't think that translates to much.

If you look at the conference call, Core 2 is aimed at the high-end, where Pentium-D is where Intel wants its main sales to be. That's how this 3-tier pricing works - you want people to buy the middle one.

And if you look at Intel's inventory, only $200M is Conroe. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Conroe was not part of Intel's revenue yet. That means Intel made much *much* more NetBurst (whose inventory didn't decrease after all the sales) than Core 2 (whose sales were zero) in Q2. If Core 2 indeed has good ramp up, why would they do so?

I have to say that I am not an economist nor any financial analyst, but Dr. Otellini's interpretation doesn't seem right with his numbers. Maybe I'm missing something... and hope someone would help me get a better sense of that, thanks!

11:22 AM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"If you don't agree with his views, say your say and beat him with evidence."

u think such comments will be published? lol...

11:36 AM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Advanced Micro Devices-AMD upgraded to Buy from Sell@THNK

* We are raising our rating on AMD from SELL to BUY. We have heard of
continued share gains in the channel by AMD that has changed our opinion.

* Servers demand is strong for AMD. Several supply chain contacts indicate strong customer demand in servers. Contrary to our prior comments, we are not sure that AMD is likely to lose ground as Intel's Woodcrest is introduced over the summer (in volume). The supply chain had indicated that it believed AMD will lose share back to Intel due to this product. However, recent checks indicate customers are driving demand for AMD server products.

* We believe AMD guidance could be seasonal for 3Q06. With server demand strong, ASPs holding (in aggregate), and inventories low, we believe guidance could see 5-10% growth over weaker 2Q06 levels.

* We are raising our estimates:

o Revs: 3Q06 from $1.280B to $1.335B; CY06 from $5.2B to $5.3B; CY07 from $5.6B to $5.8B.
o EPS: 3Q06 from $0.31 to $0.38; CY06 from $1.32 to $1.50; CY07 from $1.53 to $1.75 .
o Raising rating from SELL to BUY
o Raising price target from $22 to $27, or 18x our new CY06 EPS estimate.

* Blade demand has been strong for AMD. Blade servers-the strongest growing server demand-has become dominated by AMD over the past quarter, and we expect this trend to continue. 4-way servers have gone mainly to AMD as well.

* We believe AMD may be able continue its share gains. We hear AMD could reach 30% share in servers, and can hold its share there; this is contrary to our prior thoughts that Intel's Woodcrest would gain substantial share back. Several channel partners to whom we speak regularly mentioned that customers are still growing their interest in Opteron product; they had expected the product transition to Woodcrest would steal this demand.

* Substantial pricing declines are already built into the stock, and may be less of an impact than expected, in our view. While pricing on lower-end products continues to be under substantial pressure from Intel, server revenues- now a larger portion of AMD revenues-should keep ASPs stable.

11:50 AM, July 20, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

Have you seen this DigiTimes news about AMD widens price cuts? It seems AMD's going a direction more closely to what Sharikou suggested.

Check the Price War Strategy I posted in June here at
this URL
.

AMD is doing almost exactly what I proposed. In fact, I proposed a dual core sempron back in April.

12:35 PM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sharikou said:
"I of course never worked for either AMD or Intel, otherwise, it would be unethical for me not to disclose such association with these companies. Intel folks can take that statement to the Court. It's so amusing that Intel dudes are out of ammo... "

Sharikou,

Are going to tell us your side of why you have been fired and where did you work? Or that is a question you can never answer?!!!!
You have two choices, either tell us or we will make our assumptions.

Graham,
Good idea on setting up a blog to discuss Sharikou's firing. At least it will have a goal other than ranting and whining about Intet.. ;)lol

12:49 PM, July 20, 2006  
Blogger fcf said...

Intel's Paul Otellini said "We believe we lost a bit of microprocessor market segment share on a billings basis, but we gained a bit of a share on a consumption basis adjusting for inventory reductions."

I'm not sure what the "billings basis" and "inventory reductions" mean here. Can someone better at financials calrify that?
========================

I did a double take on the same thing when I saw that. What I think he means is that they lost revenue share to AMD but gained in unit share. And I think the "inventory reductions" may have to do with adjusting the valuation of inventory at the end of the quarter to lower of cost or market...???

oh yes, one other thing... I would like to join the other folks in saying that ad hominem attacks are REALLY lame. I don't care if Sharikou is an alchoholic pedophile wearing a gorilla suit, downloading porn at work and committing all kinds of nasty sexual harassment...

if his ideas are sound, then they deserve a listen. If you don't like what you hear... then don't read his blog if it causes you too much agita...

12:53 PM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Advanced Micro Devices-AMD upgraded to Buy from Sell@THNK

The post i made earlier was for a report from Eric Ross, whose had a sell on both AMD & Intel. TODAY, after Intel's release yesterday and BEFORE AMD's release today he kept his SELL on Intel and upgraded AMD to BUY!

What does he have to say about Intel?

Intel reported its 2Q06 results yesterday after the close. Revenues came in barely within their range (and potential for pre-announcement) at $8.0b, slightly above our $8.1b. Guidance was weaker than most expected both in revenues and margins, and we expect consensus to fall from $0.90 to below $0.80 for
CY06. With ASPs still declining, a weak PC demand environment,
disappearing cash, high inventories and guidance we believe still has the real potential for downside to expectations (and the stock price), we reiterate our SELL rating and $15 price target.

KEY POINTS:

* Second-quarter revenues came in at the very low end of expectations -
- barely enough to prevent a pre-announcement. Also, EPS was higher than it would have been due to a better tax rate.

* We roughly keep our estimates: We were much below consensus anyway, and we want to be sure we can cut our numbers again.

o Revs: 3Q06 from $8.7b to $8.6b; CY06 from $35.24b to $35.05b; CY07 remains at $37.0b .
o EPS: 3Q06 from $0.17 to $0.16; CY06 remains at $0.77; CY07 remains at $0.88.
o Rating remains SELL and price target is unchanged at $15.

* We believe there is still downside to existing Intel guidance or normal
seasonality. Intel's 3Q06 guidance is worse than consensus expected. In this diminished demand environment, with weak ASP trends and new products not materially hitting revenues until 4Q06, we question whether this is realistic. And, using typical seasonality for 4Q06 as well-and slightly better margins than Intel has guided- we reach $0.77 for CY06.

* Many investors wanted to buy Intel because it was a "value," but we
disagree. We note that it is impossible to assign a value to Intel as earnings are falling. Using our $0.77 for CY06 and giving Intel an 18x multiple (above our Semiconductor Universe), we reach our $15 price target.

* Management indicated demand is soft in all geographies and ASPs continued to decline in all categories.

* We believe inventories are too high, up 21% Q/Q, and could slow revenues or result in a write-off.

* Cash has declined faster than we expected, down 16% Q/Q and down 48% Y/Y. We worry if Intel can continue its plans without a more-massive cost-cutting campaign.

* We expect significant new headcount reductions. We believe another 9,000 will come later in the year. We also believe Intel will attempt to spin off its NOR Flash business.

* Massive pricing cuts, lower utilizations, higher ramping depreciation should all impact margins over the next several quarters. Intel's costs are largely
fixed, and we believe pricing cuts will eat away at margins.

* INTC's valuation is at a premium versus our Universe: it is trading at 19.6x P/E (net of cash and debt), at a premium to our Universe at 14.3x, and at 3.53x our estimated CY07 revenue growth of 6%, at a premium to our Universe at 1.64x versus its estimated growth rate of 10.7%.

1:01 PM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Edward said...

"If you don't agree with his views, say your say and beat him with evidence."

u think such comments will be published? lol...


1) Every comment of mine, whether it agrees or disagrees with Sharikou's views, was published.

2) If you feel Sharikou won't publish your good comments, and plus don't like his views, you are free to start your own blog and say whatever you like there.

Instead you just bad-mouth a blog here. That's IMO the low-end of the low tactics for making an argument.

1:12 PM, July 20, 2006  
Blogger C2 said...

First I want to note that these personal attacks are some sort of blackmailing - very ugly approach. Such attempts only proves that Intels army is out of ammo. :)

The simple thinking of the simple people lead nowhere.

1:49 PM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Instead you just bad-mouth a blog here. That's IMO the low-end of the low tactics for making an argument."

I think he already good-mouthed this blog. Most of my comments were not published, that's why I stopped trying to discuss with Sharikou. You can say that I must have personal attacked him, but I know I didn't.

Anyhow, a person who thinks such a one-sided blog is worth something, he's got some problems as well.

4:39 PM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"From the above, AMD can literally sell its CPUs at $60 average price (Opterons, Turions, X2s combibined) and grow market share and revenue."

To be revenue neutral you would need to sell 67% more CPU's at the lower price. Example: 60CPU's @$100/cpu = 100cpu @$60/cpu. So in your hypothetical scenario AMD would need to sell >67% more CPU's to grow revenue.

This approach would help with market share (as measure by units) but hurt both revenue and profitability.

"4) AMD's X2 3800+ beats P4D XE965"

Sharikou - you've now posted this in several of your blogs and this simply isn't true, the one link you've provided to support this show that the 965XE outperforms the X2 3800 with the exception of a couple of specific benchmarks.

5:35 PM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Are you people serious, you think "personal attacks" are out of order?

If I jump up and down and swear aliens will invade earth next week, you wouldn't make serious fun of me? Right...

His ridiculous claims are even more silly, he deserves every ounce of the enormous ridicule he garners.

6:00 PM, July 20, 2006  
Blogger Entrophos said...

Are you people serious, you think "personal attacks" are out of order?

If I jump up and down and swear aliens will invade earth next week, you wouldn't make serious fun of me? Right...

His ridiculous claims are even more silly, he deserves every ounce of the enormous ridicule he garners.


If you made personal attacks on every single person you dealt with that you disagreed with in real life, you'd quickly have no teeth left. The first time you did that to any coworker or employer you would be out of a job as fast as they could throw you out the door.

You are a sick, sad excuse for a human being.

7:37 PM, July 20, 2006  
Anonymous Edward said...

"Are you people serious, you think "personal attacks" are out of order?"

Yes.

"If I jump up and down and swear aliens will invade earth next week, you wouldn't make serious fun of me? Right..."

No. I won't. If you think personal attack is justified by this, you seriously need go back to 10th grade and learn better.

8:32 AM, July 21, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Are you people serious, you think "personal attacks" are out of order?"

Like I STATED EARLIER:

Anyone who resorts to personal attacks in a discussion or arguement over ideas or opinions has ALREADY LOST THE DISCUSSION/ARGUEMENT. This is because they have no other factual points or researched conclusions to counterpoint that said person's facts or researched conclusions and resort to personal attacks.

"If I jump up and down and swear aliens will invade earth next week, you wouldn't make serious fun of me? Right..."

Oooo yea, lets take this out of context. Besides, I'm rather partial to E.T. personally. ^_^

If his claims are so silly then why did Intel just report one of their worst quarters ever? Seems to me he's not so off base as you like to think.

"His ridiculous claims are even more silly, he deserves every ounce of the enormous ridicule he garners."

In short, his claims are ridiculous to YOU, that is YOUR opinion. Thank you, you have said your opinion, now move along so the adults here can do the talking about real facts and legit information without some clueless individual as yourself piping in every few seconds to make yourself feel important with "facts and information" that originated from your rectum. Goodday and good riddance.

Signed,

-The rest of us in this blog

9:06 AM, July 21, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"now move along so the adults here can do the talking about real facts and legit information"

Isn't that a personal attack...lol

2:07 PM, July 21, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sharikou's fannies,
Your buddy fabricates data, has a obsessive compulsive behavior that started after he got fired last year. Nobody should take his blog as anything serious (at least I know investors do not, just see how AMD stock got slammed today).

So, it is an entertainment blog. It is just like a movie, when you see a beautiful woman (or a handsome guy ;)), you do not care about her role in the movie. Most natural guys will comment on her beauty. When a character of the movie is a joker, well, the audience laugh at his stupidity..

That is just entertainment. Bottom line, you are who you carry yourself to the world..

If you ask most of people who read this blog if they think Sharikou is an intellectual or a joker, I bet you would not hear many saying intellectual.. That is why he adds "PhD" to his name, got it?

3:53 PM, July 21, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Isn't that a personal attack...lol"

Aren't you clueless...LOLZ

No genius here's a personal attack:

Go to the Humane Society.

Get a dog.

Name him Clue.

Now you'll finally have one! ;^D

4:12 PM, July 21, 2006  
Blogger pointer said...

To edward and to all

There are quite something that i want to say here but lazy to copy all the references. find them in this comments page

I do not agree with Sharikou's (and some fanboys') view >90% of the time and I shoot him with my own views and only 1 not published (i used anonymous preiously). I have never used a single bad word, though i'll occasionally make him look like an idiot(again, not thru wording as it is, but view points). :)

I strongly agree of that there is no point of knowing his job or come to a point to disclose his even if you know about it. You can have doubt of his affiliation or education (me too have doubt on it as i often find thing rediculous here although I have yet to question him on this) but not to an extend forcing him to disclose it or worst with bad words.

sometime Sharikou did piss people off by saying something line I can't explain to you as your IQ is not on par with mine ... blablabla

as of billing and consumed, if not mistaken, it mean this:
billing > consume = OEM/Channel increase inventory
billing < consume = OEM/channel decrease inventory
so, effectively, intel gained market share in terms of users, but lose in terms of shipping.

Computing-Intensive

11:22 AM, July 22, 2006  

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