Friday, March 03, 2006

AMD readies more frags for INTEL

As expected, our friends at INQ reported that AMD readies hounds to blood Intel's next gen hares. I wouldn't say hares, hamsters might be a better word. The amateurs will be ridiculed. AMD64 architecture has built-in so much potential, the technology gap is widening.

IBM should be very afraid of Opteron now.

INTEL has warned that its 1Q06 revenue will be between 8.7 and 9.1 billion due to lack of demand for IA32 technology. This is a 13% drop from the $10.2 billion of 4Q05, the situation is even worse than the dotcom bust, but in a growing PC market. AMD64's share of the US desktop retail market has risen to 81.5%. Analysts are saying that INTEL's trouble has just begun and have lost confidence in any forward earnings projections. I predict that INTEL may start reporting operating losses sometime in 2006 instead of previously projected 2007.

AMD is expected to pick up INTEL's lost revenue. Dr. Ruiz has stated AMD intends to keep INTEL down. It seems that my earlier projection of $1.7 billion revenue for AMD's 1Q06 might be a little bit conservative. But I will stay my projection that AMD will exit 2006 with 40% market share.

13 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Corvettekid Says: Sharikou, why aren't other analysts focusing on stuff like this when they keep saying that Intel will have 64-bit competitive stuff later this year? Are they stupid, ignorant, or unaware of the architectural inner workings?

11:39 AM, March 03, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

So you think analysts are free to tell the truth about intc while there millions of intc shares on some accounts in the bank employing the analysts... guess not...

12:43 PM, March 03, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Whoa! Lets not mistake Shakfu hear with being an 'other analyst' - he's just another hack with a blog. He knows about as much as my left ball.

12:58 PM, March 03, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

Frankly, my projections were far more accurate than those analysts, because I understand the market and technology, those analysts are basically plotting charts based on history and current channel checks.

1:19 PM, March 03, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Prudential: "We continue to believe that we are witnessing one of the biggest changes in competitive dynamics in semiconductors in over a decade,"
Prudential says, after Intel's (INTC) revenue warning. "We've argued that AMD has a disruptive technology, and believe that Intel will have to overhaul its
product roadmap and cost structure in order to compete effectively." That process could take 1-2 yrs, the firm says. "We would urge investors to resist the temptation to buy INTC shares on valuation. We expect continued share loss
and downwards earnings revisions for the foreseeable future," Pru says.

5:01 PM, March 03, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yes, Sharikou is indeed right on this matter. INTC will need to revamp its product line just to stay competitive. AMD should launch an attack INTC's laptop market. If AMD can take hold of the laptop market which INTC presently dominates, then it will be checkmate for INTC.

5:20 PM, March 03, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

My opinion is AMD should finish INTEL off on desktop and server first where AMD is the strongest. Desktop is about 60% of the revenue and server has highest profit margins.

5:47 PM, March 03, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Corvettekid: Maybe AMD should do some advertising, sort of like the old "Pepsi Challenge" that gave Coke headaches until Pepsie (temporarily) dethroned Coke?

I think AMD needs some plugging of it's superior technology. Frankly, I'm surprised they didn't spend a few mill on the Super Bowl.

5:54 PM, March 03, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

The crashing sound of INTEL's downfall is the best advertisement for AMD and it's free.

For 4Q05, INTEL originally projected revenue of $10.2 to $10.8 billion. On Dec 8, 2005, INTEL narrowed it to $10.4 to $10.6 billion, analysts were expecting $10.56 billion. On Jan 17, 2006, INTEl reported $10.2, stock dropped $2.5 the next day.

Then INTEL projected 1Q06 revenue to be $9.1 to $9.7, analysts were expecting $9.5, even I was assuming at least $9.4. But INTEL now tells you it will be between $8.7 to $9.1 billion.

Now it's clear that INTEL's is accelrating its decline.

6:18 PM, March 03, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Forget about 40%!
It is not possible to produce so many dual-core chips. No fab for it.
AMD should outsource low-cost Sempron and Athlon64 line to IBM and others and focus on X2/Opteron to achive this.
Fab30 and Fab36 full operational means 30%-35% of the market demand with.

2:04 AM, March 04, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Another subject: Did you see this story about a crack for the Skype AMD limitation: "http://maxxuss.com/home/skype.html"

2:45 PM, March 04, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

I saw it, I will make sure AMD lawyers know about this hack --the 3 bytes of code that deprived AMD users' rights to use Skype service. I am a paid Skype user myself, INTEL restricted me simply because I use Athlon 64 and did not pay INTEL the money they wanted. That's wrong.

3:15 PM, March 04, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yet another thing: You predict that "AMD will exit 2006 with 40% market share.".

Do you have any guess about the stock price for AMD at end this year and may even at the end of 2007 (by the end of 2007 I will have had my AMD stocks for 3 years which is important tax-wise for me).

3:29 PM, March 04, 2006  

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