Monday, March 26, 2007

Intel's new FAB in China is a sham

Intel will build a 90nm FAB in China. 90nm? Yes, 90nm!

90nm and will probably start pumping out chips in 2010. By then, all AMD CPUs and chipsets will be 45nm.

But, Intel will BK by 2Q08.

AMD is all 65nm now.

11 Comments:

Blogger enumae said...

Sharikou
AMD is all 65nm now.

LOL, next thing you'll say is they are 100% dualcore, and will be 50% quad core by years end...

Instead of posting this nonsense why not elaborate on Intel bankrupting Q2 2008?

Or talk about AMD's current financial situation, and how they will turn this around in Q3 and Q4?

12:36 PM, March 26, 2007  
Blogger Roborat, Ph. D. said...

It's a chipset/flash Fab made from waterfalled Fab equipments shipped from Intel's other Fabs.

it's designed to kill AMD's ATI/chipset division by 2010, which will be the only division left after its CPU division is completely annihilated by Nehalem a year earlier.

By then, it'll be an Intel 99%, VIA 1% CPU market. AMD's CPU business sold of to pay its debt after its Q2'08 BK.

5:14 PM, March 26, 2007  
Blogger Giant said...

AMD is all 65nm now.

LOL! So Sharikou, where exactly are the 65nm mobile and server parts? And the desktop parts rated above "5000+"? Looks like they're all still 90nm to me!

... Where are those massive clockspeeds you indicated Sharikou? Looks like AMD's 65nm processors are still clocked lower than it's 90nm processrs!

5:53 PM, March 26, 2007  
Blogger howling2929 said...

You all guys fail to see the big picture.

The domestic chinese economy has grown so much that china is pondering wether or not to end taxbreaks and priviledges for foreign companies if they set up shop in china...

Therefore, Intel wants to profit from the free land, cheap financing, cheap labor and no taxes given by china while supplies last. The only problem is that the department of state will forbid exporting to china anything more current than 90nm technology.

But, do not despair, Intel still makes a lot of parts in 90nm space, and for such parts, a die shrink + minor tweaks is not financialy sound, so the fab will not go iddle. Also, stoping the fab and changing masks to do a multitude of parts here is no problem, since this fab is so cheap.

And, and this is the final straw, Since the fab will be a CopyExactly! fab, as soon as the US Govt relaxes the export controls, the fab can be converted to the next allowed technology node.

I think the move is quite wise.

6:15 PM, March 26, 2007  
Blogger Masch Avenue said...

Yeah, AMD is all 65nm in ONE FAB according to Charlie.

This would be as opposed to being 65nm IN ALL FABS according to reputable NEWS sources.

6:24 PM, March 26, 2007  
Blogger Scientia from AMDZone said...

100% 65nm on FAB 36 today is possible.AMD's previous statement was conversion to 65nm on FAB 36 by mid year. This would only mean moving this forward two months. On the other hand, it could be referring to wafers currently in process which would sound about right. It's plausible.

The bankruptcy thing in Q2 is not even remotely plausible however. Sharikou, surely you can see that if Intel really did get into a huge jam (unlikely as it is) in the next 10 months that they could raise capital by selling off one FAB. Intel could lose 1/3rd of its processor production and would still have twice the processor production capacity of AMD. Intel could lose 1/3rd of its revenue and it would still be the largest chip manufacturer.

AMD is capacity constrained and will still be constrained in Q2 08. It should be impossible for Intel to lose more than about 10% of its market.

11:09 PM, March 26, 2007  
Blogger abinstein said...

"it's designed to kill AMD's ATI/chipset division by 2010, which will be the only division left after its CPU division is completely annihilated by Nehalem a year earlier."

How does Intel's China fab kill AMD chipset when there are a line of companies such as TSMC, UMC, and Chartered happy to take orders from AMD for cheap?

The Intel China fab is more political than financial, at best it allows Intel to reuse some old equipments. By the time it is functional (2010) there will be multiple Chinese fabs making 90nm OEM chips as well. Do you honestly think Intel can have cost (rather than technology) advantage over native Chinese companies?

12:12 AM, March 27, 2007  
Blogger Giant said...

How does Intel's China fab kill AMD chipset when there are a line of companies such as TSMC, UMC, and Chartered happy to take orders from AMD for cheap?


You do know how full TSCMs fabs are, don't you? The orders have to be placed WELL in advance. We're talking months at least.

12:17 AM, March 27, 2007  
Blogger abinstein said...

"You do know how full TSCMs fabs are, don't you? The orders have to be placed WELL in advance. We're talking months at least."

And did I mention only TSMC? Do you expect that in the year of 2010, 1) TSMC fabs are too full to take AMD's order, AND 2) neither UMC nor Chartered have capacity to do so, either, AND 3) none of the Chinese fabs have advance from 130nm to 90nm? Are ALL of these possible together? Or what else are you trying to say exactly here?

4:24 AM, March 27, 2007  
Blogger Jeach! said...

surely you can see that if Intel really did get into a huge jam (unlikely as it is) in the next 10 months that they could raise capital by selling off one FAB."

Right, they'd sell it to AMD for a fraction of the cost. Then AMD would find 'Copy Exact' to be inferior and upgrade it to APC. Not bad a deal!

"Intel could lose 1/3rd of its revenue and it would still be the largest chip manufacturer."

Based on what, market cap? No, cause if Intel lost 1/3 of its revenues, they would be hemeraging money like there was no tomorrow. And there shares would colpse, making the company worth less than AMD.

Or maybe revenue? With a 1/3 loss, it would put it about on par with the 2nd, 3rd and 4th largest companies, so that isn't so again.

Maybe in capacity? Well, maybe you're right, but with 1/3 revenue loss, none of that would matter because they'd be selling all that capacity to AMD for survival.

6:33 AM, March 27, 2007  
Blogger Giant said...

Right, they'd sell it to AMD for a fraction of the cost. Then AMD would find 'Copy Exact' to be inferior and upgrade it to APC. Not bad a deal!

AMD can't afford more fabs. AMD has billions in debt and not enough cash to cover that debt. They're bleeding as well, almost certain to post another loss this quarter. Meanwhile, even during a price war Intel has maintained a healthy 15% profit margin. Meanwehile AMD faces shrinking marketshare and a large inventory of old 90nm lowend parts.

Intel regained server share last quarter, and will do it again this quarter. Given AMD's warning that they won't mean revenue targets I fully predict Intel to regain further share from AMD. Compare last results - loss of 500m vs profit of 1.5bn! This quarter Intel's profit might exceed AMD's revenue!

On the day of AMD's earnings announcement if I were Paul Otellini I'd send Hector Ruiz a quick letter:-

Dear Hector,

You wanted open competition, here it is. Thanks for suing us too.

- PaulI

6:56 PM, March 27, 2007  

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