Tuesday, October 10, 2006

If this is true, Inte's BK will be sooner

AMD will reportedly slashes Opteron prices. Dual core Opteron 265 at $209?? I guess Chartered FAB7 is cranking like crazy.

This also indicates that AMD is preparing the launch of 65nm parts.

Once K8L is out, Intel's server market share will be reduced to near 0. I suggest AMD to release a low end K8L at $300 -- that will totally kill off Intel's server line.

As I said, AMD must sacrifice profit margin to frag Intel, just keep taking market share, and Intel will BK.

BTW, DELL won't pay $50 for a VIIV sticker, but went AMD Live!

18 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Compal to Raise Shipments of Laptops With Advanced Micro Chips

By Tim Culpan

Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Compal Electronics Inc., the world's second-largest maker of notebook computers, said it will increase shipments of laptops that use Advanced Micro Devices Inc. processors, driven by customers' demand for lower prices.

Processors made by Advanced Micro will be used in 30 percent of notebooks shipped by Compal, compared with 20 percent last year, said Jimmy Zhang, the Taipei-based company' s head of investor relations at Compal.

Advanced Micro, based in Sunnyvale, California, is trying to increase its 21.6 percent market share in the $32 billion computer chip industry that's dominated by Intel Corp. by offering processors of equivalent performance at lower prices.

``Consumers don't care about which processor is inside, they just think of price'' which is Advanced Micro's strength, said Zhang. He estimates consumer purchases now account for half of notebook sales from 30 percent a few years ago. Corporate sales make up the other half.

Vendors such as Acer Inc. and Hewlett-Packard Co. are turning to Advanced Micro to add variety to their product lines and help lower prices, Zhang said. In July, Santa Clara, California-based Intel cut prices as much as 60 percent in response to price and performance competition from Advanced Micro.

Consumers are more price-sensitive than corporate customers, which are more loyal to preferred processor brands, he said.

``Prices of notebook computers have come down and are almost the same price as desktops, so consumers are buying more notebooks'' giving them more influence in the market, he said.

Compal expects to increase shipments of notebook computers 48 percent to 14.5 million units this year from 9.8 million units in 2005, Zhang said.

Quanta Computer Inc., the world's largest notebook maker, and Wistron Corp., the No. 3, will increase their shipments of notebooks using Advanced Micro processors, both companies have said, without providing details.

Quanta expects to ship 19.1 million notebook computers this year, a rise of around 6 percent, and Wistron will ship between 9.5 million to 10.5 million units, compared with 5.6 million last year.

To contact the reporter on this story: Tim Culpan in Taipei at tculpan1@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: October 4, 2006 07:18 EDT

9:07 PM, October 10, 2006  
Anonymous Graham said...

AMD will reportedly slashes Opteron prices. Dual core Opteron 265 at $209?? I guess Chartered FAB7 is cranking like crazy.

That is but one possible conclusion one could make. The other conclusion would be that AMD has been forced to dump Opteron 265s at low prices just to remain competitive with Intel's superior products. Whichever of the two conclusions reveals more about one's biases than it does about market conditions. I think Sharikou's biases are pretty thoroughly documented in this blog. In reality, there isn't enough data in this post (nor the linked article) to support either conclusion.

9:19 PM, October 10, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

That is but one possible conclusion one could make. The other conclusion would be that AMD has been forced to dump Opteron 265s at low prices just to remain competitive with Intel's superior products.

No. Woodcrest is ultra low end 2P only. AMD is cutting 8P Opteron prices. 65nm parts must be at the door -- K8L soon. Once K8L is out. Intel's server market share will be reduced to near 0.

9:22 PM, October 10, 2006  
Anonymous Graham said...

Woodcrest is ultra low end 2P only.

Not that I believe your words Sharifraud but it should also be noted that Woodcrest is targeted at ultra-high volume. Lots of people will be satisfied by the 2P and soon 4P offerings from Intel. Lots not zero. repeat. Lots not zero. Care to put some money on that? Intel will retain at least 60% server share through 2008. Guaranteed.

9:27 PM, October 10, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Once K8L is out, Intel's server market share will be reduced to near 0."

So Intel's server market share in Q2'07 will be zero?

10:36 PM, October 10, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Poor Sharikou...
Before Conroe came out the Ph.d said that you can't compare Conroe to AM2 because Conroe wasn't out and you can't compare vaporware to the real thing.
Now Sharikou keeps harping on K8L. Give it up already, Sharikou, give it up. Either you count them all before they're out or you don't count any until they're out.

Come on Sharikou, try to be a little more consistent.

10:44 PM, October 10, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Intel will retain at least 60% server share through 2008. Guaranteed.

What? With that lousy unstable Woodcrest that got dumped by the US Government and later caused major stability problems to a large Korean ISP?

What planet do you live on?

12:22 AM, October 11, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Once K8L is out, Intel's server market share will be reduced to near 0."

So Intel's server market share in Q2'07 will be zero?


Hello Sharikou hater. Us more reasonable types correctly intepret that as Intel's server market share will eventually be zero after K8L (Sharikou, will you PLEASE stop using this Intel invented name and thereby stop feeding these uncouth Intel trolls?) is out. Bye Intel. I have waited long enough. (Now I AM an Intel hater until they of course stop their lying and strong arm tactics. For some time now, Intel has represented lying and oppression and continues to do so)

12:31 AM, October 11, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

And "Your so ugly" to the truth that intel will go BK. "You make blind kids cry." Intel is doomed just face it. "Fanboys are so dumb with ears like those you make dumbo jellus more ways then one because you stole the ears and the name from just being dumb"

If you can't take the truth then don't take the jokes punk! Yo yo yo... chill

12:42 AM, October 11, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Personally, I think competition is great.

Where else can you keep getting cheaper and cheaper prices for everyone.

The caveat is I don't believe the current market share distribution is enough.

As it is, Intel is scared enough and has a decent enough performer to start reversing the tides, a little. But if AMD's share drops, we can expect the same kinds of strong-arming tactics and stagnation that brought us the NetFarce Marchitecture all over again.

I hope dear God, it never happens again.

But if AMD can sustain their momentum and get above 30% share overall of revenue consistently every quarter(40% would be great), it would be harder for Intel to fall back on their strong-arming tactics.

I think it would be an ideal situation for us all.

3:13 AM, October 11, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Dual core Opteron 265 at $209??"

Not that bad. Now there is some competition in the "ultra low end 2P" server arena too. That 265 suits fine to go against 1.6GHz Core2 that has been availiable with only $20 higher price for quite some time.
http://www.newegg.com/Product/ProductList.asp?Category=34&N=2010340343+50001157+1051721706+1051322797&Submit=ENE&SubCategory=343

5:49 AM, October 11, 2006  
Blogger pointer said...

No. Woodcrest is ultra low end 2P only. AMD is cutting 8P Opteron prices. 65nm parts must be at the door -- K8L soon. Once K8L is out. Intel's server market share will be reduced to near 0.

While i have decided not to participate in any lame discussion here, but i can;t resist to reply to this one :)

Let's not argue the truth of the statement, but the logic:
1) Sha said Woodcrest is for Ultra lowend
2) Sha said AMD is cutting 8P Opteron prices
3) Sha said in other post that Intel has little if not none of the 'high end' market (read as 48 or 8p and above)

So the conclusion from the logic above is that there is no impact to intel as intel has 0 market share at that market segment at the first place (as according to Sha) :)

Another deduction is that Sha failed his logic paper (if he ever took one)

5:55 AM, October 11, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sharikou: BTW, DELL won't pay $50 for a VIIV sticker, but went AMD Live!

This real a FUD blog

Review for the Dell Viiv system Half year ago here
http://reviews.cnet.com/Dell_XPS_400_Viiv/4505-3118_7-31756979.html

6:02 AM, October 11, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

That 265 suits fine to go against 1.6GHz Core2 that has been availiable with only $20 higher price for quite some time.


Woodcrest needs FB-DIMM, which costs significantly higher. Also, Woodcrest MB costs higher.

8:01 AM, October 11, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Someone said
"Come on Sharikou, try to be a little more consistent. "

That is like asking a chronic liar to start telling the truth.

Not a Phd pretender

The reason AMD is dropping prices is that their product isn't competitive and they must now drop it lower in the PC stack. If K8L was truely competitive they would simply price it against the topline Core2 dual and 4x4 at 600-1200 bucks. That is what they did with FX when it came out. If it performs competitvely then price it so.

ONly reason to drop prices is lack of demand. If AMD is truely supply and capacity constrained it is poor business model to sacrifice profits. Take the money its on the table.

You can't BK intel is it has billions in the bank..

1:31 PM, October 11, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Woodcrest needs FB-DIMM, which costs significantly higher. Also, Woodcrest MB costs higher."

Significantly higher? Try actually looking them up. Fool

7:04 PM, October 11, 2006  
Anonymous Edward said...

"ONly reason to drop prices is lack of demand. If AMD is truely supply and capacity constrained it is poor business model to sacrifice profits. Take the money its on the table."

What are you talking about??? AMD is not dropping the price now; rather it's scheduled on 10/30, which is right before 4x4 will be released.

Of course there will be less demand for Opteron 265 when 4x4 is released. It's the slowest dual-core Opteron on socket-940 - only those who own an Opteron system with the old socket and not yet upgraded to dual-core would consider to buy these.

8:02 PM, October 11, 2006  
Anonymous Edward said...

"Processors made by Advanced Micro will be used in 30 percent of notebooks shipped by Compal, compared with 20 percent last year, said Jimmy Zhang, the Taipei-based company' s head of investor relations at Compal."

Exactly as I expected in my comments somewhere else...

BTW, Intel's been marketing Core Duo like no tomorrow in southeast Asia. I've seen them put 15 pages of ads on every issue of a popular magazine for like 2 months. Yet the Taiwanese manufacturer still expect higher shipment of AMD-based notebooks. Well...

8:07 PM, October 11, 2006  

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