Sunday, October 22, 2006

Charlie not good at arithmetic (AMD share estimate)

Charlie at INQ claimed that AMD had 27% desktop market share in 3Q06, which is simply wrong. The source he quoted, BusinessWeek, was using 2Q06 data. 3Q06 data hasn't come out yet.

For 2Q06, we know AMD had 21.6% market share, Intel was at 72.9%. VIA took 5.5%, but it was said VIA number was inflated.

For 3Q06, we know the following:

AMD's overall units grew 18% q/q, with over 50% unit growth in mobile and single digit growth in server.

INTEL had double digit growth in server CPUs, but apparently its mobile and desktop had single digit unit growth. We conclude that Intel's unit growth in 2Q06 was less but close to 10%.

Using their 2Q06 numbers as basis, we have

AMD units = 21.6 * 1.18 = 25.488 units

INTEL units = 72.9 * 1.1 = 80.19 units

Therefore, AMD's market share in 3Q06 is

AMD_share = 25.488/(25.488+ 80.19+VIA),

assuming VIA's units did not change in 3Q06, we have

AMD_share = 25.488/(25.488+80.19+5.5) = 23%
INTEL_share = 80.19 /(25.488+80.19+5.5) = 72%

Of course, if VIA's units went down, then AMD's market share will be higher. If one takes out VIA, AMD's share is 24%.

On ASP, in terms of 2Q06 number, AMD's ASP was 1.33/1.18/1.22 = 92.38% of its 2Q06 level, a near 8% drop.

17 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Are you serious?
Sharikou downplaying AMD market share?
:D

7:15 PM, October 22, 2006  
Blogger coldpower27 said...

I can't believe your predicting that Intel has 80% Marketshare this Q3 Good Job. :)

I do await the correct numbers from Mercury Research though we will have to see, how much Intel and AMD have for Q3 2006, as 72.9% is a Q2 number from what I remember.

8:16 PM, October 22, 2006  
Anonymous enumae said...

Sharikou, I know you'll love this, Intel looks to have lost market share...

--------------------------

Q2 06 Market share plus increased unit growth.

AMD market share = 21.6% * 1.18 (18% growth) = 25.488% Market share

Intel market share = 72.95% * 1.10 (10% growth) = 80.19% Market share

Via market share = 5.5% (0% growth) = 5.5% Market share

--------------------------

Excess market share 11.138%

AMD 25.488% + Intel 80.19% + VIA 5.5% = 111.138%

100 * 100 / 111.138 = 89.978%

--------------------------

Adjusted Market share

AMD 25.488% * 0.89978 (Adjustment) = 22.93%

Intel 80.19% * 0.89978 (Adjustment) = 72.15%

VIA 5.5% * 0.89978 (Adjustment) = 4.94%

--------------------------

It would seem as if Intel lost Market share.

8:49 PM, October 22, 2006  
Blogger Greg said...

He just wants to be as realistic as he can be. As pro-AMD as Sharikou seems to be (from what everyone else says) he still has to use some form of logic (even if you don't believe he does) to arrive at his conclusions. If he feels like pointing out charlie's poor math skills, than he has every faculty necessary to do so.

8:52 PM, October 22, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Who are you, and what have you done to Sharikou?

9:51 PM, October 22, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"We conclude that Intel's unit growth in 2Q06 was less but close to 10%."

I love the way "we" is used. We = I = Sharikou...

And by "conclude" I assume you mean "estimate" as you do not have enough data yet to conclude Intel unit growth? You have neither individual segment (CPU, Server, mobile) growth %'s nor the relative %'s between server, CPU and mobile Intel unit sales.

And I'm not sure you have the ASP calculated too well either... I assume you are basing this on revenue QoQ ratios? Have you adequately discounted non-CPU revenue for both quarters?

12:01 AM, October 23, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

Sharikou downplaying AMD market share?


My goal is to get the correct result based on most reliable data available.

12:07 AM, October 23, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Where is sharikou you fraud? Intel must of payed off this blog site and replaced him with a droid. The AMD rebel force will meet at Tim's parent's house to organize a plan of attack.

P.S. Tim's parent's ask that even dough you guys are in your 40s that you please not bring any girls, oh yeah wait...you guys are losers. Never mind. yOU MOMMA

12:52 AM, October 23, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

What is THAT for a math :

Amd has share in Q2 of 21.6 % and growth in units of 18 % then units are

21 % x 118 % = 25 million units ???

-There is a mismatch in "units" (% and units -not the units itself)
-to declare watt x watt not equal square meters

Do you really know what u are multiplying ?
% times % = units ?????


the same on intels numbers :

together they have a marketshare of > 100 % = > 100 M units ???????

THINK it over !
calzone

1:09 AM, October 23, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

emumae wrote:
Adjusted Market share
AMD 25.488% * 0.89978 (Adjustment) = 22.93%
Intel 80.19% * 0.89978 (Adjustment) = 72.15%
VIA 5.5% * 0.89978 (Adjustment) = 4.94%

That made perfect sense to me. Great math.

-Longan-

P.S. I can see why the market spanked AMD stock. To gain a puny 1.3% market share during a price war, the margin gave up was horrendous. 5 percent or so on the margin! It's all Dell's fault!

2:40 AM, October 23, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nope, bad calculation. the 9% growth of desktop and laptop was was counted on revenue basis, not unit basis. And AMD calculation is unit basis, not revenue basis. You are comparing apple to orange here. With lower ASP, a 9% growth in revenue, means more than 9% in unit growth.

btw, are you saying Hector bullshitting?

Adam Parker - Sanford Bernstein

So that implies, maybe, that you lost a shade of server revenue share, then? Is that correct?

Hector Ruiz

Based on the numbers that we see, we believe that we did not lose share in the server space, and we grew, of course, quarter on quarter as well as significantly year on year.


I know he is bullshiting, i'm hust surprised that you agreed with me :)

3:18 AM, October 23, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Are we still on for 30% by year end? Of what, desktop, or all units?

5:02 AM, October 23, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

21 % x 118 % = 25 million units ???


No. AMD sold 21.6 * 1.18 = 25.488 units in 3Q06.

Verstand?

8:20 AM, October 23, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

With lower ASP, a 9% growth in revenue, means more than 9% in unit growth.


Take a look at Intel's results. Most of the revenue growth was from mobile and chipsets. The desktop+server had almost zero growth.

8:22 AM, October 23, 2006  
Anonymous xfabricator said...

Verstand? Sounds like another goofy sharikooky quip, like BK.

Verstehen?

9:58 AM, October 23, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

Adjusted Market share
AMD 25.488% * 0.89978 (Adjustment) = 22.93%
Intel 80.19% * 0.89978 (Adjustment) = 72.15%
VIA 5.5% * 0.89978 (Adjustment) = 4.94%

That made perfect sense to me. Great math.


I have to say a Ph. D even does arithmetic better... read my calculation, it was the simplest and most straightforward one.

All you need to do is regard 2Q06 total shipment as 100 units, then you compute the 3Q06 units for each vendor, then compute the percentage.

What was a unit in 2Q06 in the calculation, we don't know, but who cares? (it's roughly 500,000 CPUs).

If I told you speed of light is 1, would you believe me? But the speed of light is 1.

10:15 AM, October 23, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sharikou wrote:
"I have to say a Ph. D even does arithmetic better... read my calculation, it was the simplest and most straightforward one."

Because it's simple and straightforward, I don't need to be a PhD to understand, nor you need to be a PhD to convince me. I just happened to agree with that guy enumae more than you at such calculation.

"If I told you speed of light is 1, would you believe me? But the speed of light is 1."

I would not believe you. I happen to already know the speed of light is 1c. So, I am not sure what your point. I will stick to mine. :P

-Longan- too witty for the doc.

P.S. I have good looooong memory, so 2008Q2 I will check up on your BK prediction. ;) All I would say is "See, I told ya: no BK."

9:33 PM, October 23, 2006  

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