Saturday, October 14, 2006

AMD retail presence remains strong

Just went to circuit city. There are 13 AMD desktops, 5 Intel. There are 7 AMD notebooks (mostly Turion X2s) and 7 Intel ones.

Also, this DELL deal is unbeatable: X2 3800+, 512MB ram, 19 inch LCD, $569. The advantage of AMD is that the integrated Nvidia graphics is DOOM3 capable, zero problems playing 3D kids games. With Intel, you either have to use crap Intel graphics which can't play anything mildly 3D or buy an expensive discrete graphics card.

There are concerns about AMD's margin because of selling to DELL. I think Intel has deeper concerns. In 2Q06, AMD's gross margin was 57%, that was on an ASP of about $90. Intel had a gross margin of 50%, with ASP at about $125. Now, DELL seems to be draining AMD's capacity, one analyst expected the ASP AMD is selling to DELL is $67. At that price, AMD should be doing OK. The rationale is every AMD chip DELL sells is one less Intel chip sold. For that alone, it's good business. The economics of scale play here. The FABs and people cost the same, the more wafers you push through, the more chips you sell, the lower the average cost. As AMD cross the 33% market share line, it will head straight to 40%, leaving Intel at about 55%. With a 55% market share, Intel will be selling about 30 million chips per quarter, brining in a quarterly revenue of about $3.6 billion, adding some chipset and flash revenue, Intel's revenue will be about $4.8 billion per quarter, and that's $2.2 billion quarterly loss. How soon will Intel BK? Just check its liquidity.

So for AMD, the most important thing right now is to take advantage of its lower cost and drive Intel out of business. It's a war. You are either quicker or dead. Once Intel is dislodged from its stronghold on the enterprise client market, it will be relatively easy to finish the job to wipe it off -- just sell at $20 below Intel's cost.

Of course, Intel can try salvage the situation by raising prices, so its revenue will stay relatively constant even it loses units. But it's too late to do that, and that will resulting in AMD gaining more market share, the vicious cycle continues, until AMD is fully ramped up and be able to supply 95% of the market. At that point, Intel will become a marginal player, just like SGI today. I expect a chapter 11 restructuring, in which Intel will auction off substantial portion of its fixed assets. It won't be able to get much money from its 0.25 micron and 0.50 micron FABs, it will have to auction off some of its 300mm FABs.

Do expect the above scenario to happen fairly soon. Mid 2007 will be a key juncture for the industry, as AMD fully converts FAB36 to 65nm and Chartered FAB7 starts 65nm production for AMD.

51 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I love Circuit City:) What were you doing there?

2:11 PM, October 14, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yawn...

I go to a used auto lot and I find a lot of GM cars for sale too.

I read the classified and see a lot of GM, Crysler, and Ford dealers offering lots of deals on lots of models.

Guess what like AMD GM/Crysler/Ford are losing money and have inferior manufacturing, technology, engineers and products.

Models mean nothing....

3:14 PM, October 14, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

ADM ??? buying corn?? ethanol??

3:34 PM, October 14, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Circuit City? I thought you buy your computers from Dell as all knowledgeable enthusiasts do!

3:47 PM, October 14, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I was in the same circuit city yesterday. There was 20 intel desktop, 13 AMD desktop, 20 intel laptop and 7 AMD laptop.

Seems like a lot of intel machine got sold while 0 sales for AMD. :)

5:50 PM, October 14, 2006  
Blogger howling2929 said...

A week ago I went to "El Corte Ingles" and Fnac in Preciados, and to PC-City, and most systems were Intel.... Interesting. What could be the difference? Europeans more stupid than Americans? Or perhaps my method of observation was unscientific....

Well, only time will tell.

Salud!

7:04 PM, October 14, 2006  
Anonymous netrama said...

howling2929 said...
A week ago I went to "El Corte Ingles" and Fnac in Preciados, and to PC-City, and most systems were Intel.... Interesting. What could be the difference? Europeans more stupid than Americans?


Europe is the last remaining Intel 'colony' lol.

BTW the DV9005 and DV9010 sporting the X2's look killer !! I hear SONY and Toshiba are talking to AMD ..after their hiatus ...can anyone else confirm ??

11:07 PM, October 14, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I guess point that sharikou wants to drive is AMD is still able to meet the demand. The + or - 5 intel m/cs means nothing.

--Mahi

4:38 AM, October 15, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I stopped by BEST BUY Chino Hills Ca and the two computer geeks I spoke with recommend AMD. The Sales force was AMD fans also.

Fry’s had Intel notebooks on sale with core-dual, very tempting.

6:41 AM, October 15, 2006  
Anonymous Edward said...

"Circuit City? I thought you buy your computers from Dell as all knowledgeable enthusiasts do!"

Sometimes Circuit City or stores like that have very good deals. Only fools would miss that and claim themselves being ethusiasts.

I know many people who insist on buildling their own machines or buying parts on-line because these actions seem more "professional".

8:24 AM, October 15, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

LOL..

Looks like the consensus in the Market place as in the Coporate numbers are in.

INTEL rules at > 70% and has 99% of all profits

Pretty hard to fund design teams, fund marketing, and build multi billion dollar factories and fund billion dollar silicon R&D when you dont' sale much.

10:09 AM, October 15, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You can trust some minimum wage monkey at Circuit City, Best Buy or some commissioned minimum wage monkey at Frys.

Anyone with a clue will look at the performance/cost curve. Check out the latest at Tom's..

Its clear AMD offers little but an altenative supplier of lesser value.

That is the simple facts AMD fanboys.

You want performance you buy INTEL
You want value you buy INTEL
You want dependable volume supplier you buy INTEL.

ANy questions geeks?

11:28 AM, October 15, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"ADM retail presence remains strong"

We have a real genius here.

12:05 PM, October 15, 2006  
Blogger ashenman said...

I guess you completely miss the point that most people are idiots and buy what the guy at circuit city/dell/hp/sony/etc. will push them into buying. Almost no one in the real world knows shit about computers, because they don't care/want to care/want to take the time to care. So in the end, the whole performance war mean squat to the portion of the market that sells the most parts and thus makes the most money. People (like sharikou 180) make a big deal out of the channel (what people buy from the make custom systems) because they sell at such high margins. However, the truth of the matter is they have to, because so few people buy from them.
Yes, without severe tweaking, an fx 62 gets its @$$ handed to it by a conroe. Too bad fanbois. Intel went to flat rate pricing, meaning people can't negotiate with them, which means OEMs really don't like them right now.
Ya, Intel has a flashier marketing campaign, but even then, it apparently takes a much greater deal of intelligence to listen to commercials over the sales rep, because so few people even do that. At the end of the day, it comes down to what system fits the bill, and if that system happens to have an AMD or Intel processor in it, is all at the discretion of the company selling it. The key price range, happens to be where AMD is sitting, which is just cheaper than the pentium d's, but just slightly more expensive than the pentium 4s. Pentium 4s have been around too long, so people who want to upgrade their system (pretty much everybody) will think "hmm, that's exactly what I had in my old computer" because they wont look at the frequency, or model number, or anything else. They'll see an AMD and think, well that's different, and more expensive, and says dual core, or 64 bit, so that must mean that it's better than my current system, because buzz words=awesome. So please, don't throw performance at a marketing problem, and don't throw margins at a marketing problem. Intel is losing credibility and marketshare because it is selling mostly old hardware that people have already seen too much of and is becoming harder for OEMs to buy because of uniform pricing, and at the end of the day, a company that's losing marketshare operates at the same or an increased cost from when it had more marketshare.
Ya, AMD is getting hurt by its margins, but it's selling more processors than ever before, so it's getting about the same amount of income or more income, and it isn't increasing its workforce, so it doesn't have to worry about the inefficiencies of an Intel sized workforce.
At the end of the day, kiddoes/intel fanbois, nobody who matters has a clue. Only the few of us, and that just means we get to reap the benefits of undersold, and underpriced conroes. So be happy, and get over the way the system works.

12:39 PM, October 15, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Are you a fucking tard? It's AMD not ADM!

1:30 PM, October 15, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sharikou said: "With a 55% market share, Intel will be selling about 30 million chips per quarter, brining in a quarterly revenue of about $3.6 billion, adding some chipset and flash revenue, Intel's revenue will be about $4.8 billion per quarter, and that's $2.2 billion quarterly loss. How soon will Intel BK? Just check its liquidity."

Do I sense some backing away from the 5-7 quarters to BK tagline?

And, not that the rest of your data is bulletproof, but how did you get to $2.2B loss? In the last four quarters, Intel never had more than $4B operating expenses. Should be even less if the volume goes down as you assume.

Let's put the BK prediction aside for a moment. Sharikou, would you care to predict the first quarter Intel will post an operating loss and AMD doesn't?

2:23 PM, October 15, 2006  
Anonymous enumae said...

"Once Intel is dislodged from its stronghold on the enterprise client market, it will be relatively easy to finish the job to wipe it off -- just sell at $20 below Intel's cost."

Servers...

AMD at 26% of server market, and 80% of which is 2P how do they gain ground there?

Intel 2P Woodcrest is better than Opteron 2P, and 2P Cloverton should be about 60-70% better than 2P opteron, thats a 6 months head start and its a drop in for Woodcrest users.

Conclusion, tough to gain market share at 2P and below, unless Rev H (K8L) is as dominant as expected.

Mobile...

Well from all the reviews I have read, not many want AMD laptops, yes they are better at gaiming, but gaming/enthusiaist are a very small segment of the market, Intel at 87% vs AMD at 13% they have a long way to go, and also consider that is the fastest growing segment.

Conclusion, extremely hard to gain market share, release date for Bulldozer is un announced, and looking at Rev H, desktop and mobile will have to wait at least 1 - 2 quarters.

Desktop...

Clock for clock Conroe beats K8, so Q207 Intel will be done with 90nm Netburst, all cores will be migrated towards a Conroe designed core, and then the shrink to 45nm for most desktop, server and mobile chips, the remaining 65nm will be low end, but better than FAB 30's 90nm processors which will not be fully converted until 2008.

Conclusion, they may/will regain the performance crown, but ramping up to a full 65nm processor line will take some time, 90nm will be useless except for upgraders, minimum market share gains.

3:24 PM, October 15, 2006  
Blogger Mikolaj said...

I found this about FAB36:
We started the ramp roughly at the end of '05, and we will complete the ramp to the full 20K per month level, roughly end '07. It is a pretty linear ramp across those eight quarters. Dirk Mayer.

So this means that ending 2006 AMD is going to ramp 50/50 for 90/65nm production using 10000wspm.
5k goes to 65nm, 5k goes to 90nm.
This is end of Q4.
So Q3 should end with 7500 wspm.
This is the reality for FAB36+1000wspm from Charered should give exact number of the current AMD production.

3:34 PM, October 15, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://www.dailyprincetonian.com/archives/2006/10/12/arts/16162.shtml
According to the Office of Information Technology (OIT), 45 percent of computers purchased this year were Macs, more than in any previous year. In 2003, when this year's seniors arrived on campus, just 15 percent of them chose Macs. The next year, a quarter of incoming freshmen did, and the year after that, 38 percent.

3:45 PM, October 15, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Some observations for the Prentender..

Visit to Best Buy: Count 12 laptops with INTEL, 2 with AMD. Desktop was closer to 50:50.. But guess where the crowds were and what they were buying? LAPTOPs.. Same reason Dell is in trouble with crappy laptops and sony batteries.

Also minor point.. INTEL is rasing prices because it can and still sell everthing. That means more profits and revenue per chip. Nothing is more expensive then an empty 5 billion dollar factory. A sure sign of trouble at a semiconductor company is when they lower prices as they look to sell everything and keep their factory running. The worst possible outcome is an underloaded factory. Thus the higher prices says INTEL is in good shape..

Thanks for the key data PhD.. You proove the point that INTEL is in good shape and AMD is in big trouble. Coming late to 65nm will mean lower yields as they are a full 18 months behind INTEL in the learning. IBM offers little advantage as they don't know how to make high volume silicon processes after losing in DRAMs.

4:57 PM, October 15, 2006  
Blogger nyx said...

Looks as though just about all the SLI systems sold through almost all distributors tend to use AMD processors. It's the same case with crossfire systems. The very FEW of those systems who have Intel chips, use the archaic XPRESS 200 or nForce4 chipsets. So naturally, its easier for those reps/salesmen to sell AMD systems over Intel's. The majority of people I talked to, say that they want a computer system which can play modern day games and play them well. If they can buy an affordable crossfire or sli system, especially one which uses the latest chipset, damn right they're going to want to buy it. I've mentioned it before, Nvidia'a and ATI's support for Intel's Core 2 processors is pathetic. I still can't find a Core 2 based system which uses an ATI XPRESS 3200 chipset and only recently did I finally find a Nvidia based motherboard which uses a nForce 590 chipset. Now I could find an AMD based motherboard which uses a nForce 590 chipset for half the price than the expensive Intel based ones. I would imagine the AMD based boards are considerably cheaper because there is more competition for them under the AMD line (thus better selection as well as cheaper prices) and the fact that this chipset has been offered for quite some time for AMD boards. Intel better beg for better support from Nvidia because their chipset based boards are not as enticing. People understand the benefits of crossfire and sli technologies. They alo seem to understand that the system processors don't really matter at high res with settings jacked up. I think people have come to realize over time that AMD systems have proven to be more reliable less quirky than Intel's systems. This has become a huge selling point. The people I asked "why do you want to buy an AMD system over an Intel one," have replied that they want a system that works, works well, and will prove to be dependable for years to come. Then they continue to explain to me all the problems they have had with previous Intel systems, at which point it becomes painful because the details go on forever.
AMD is also known for treating the smallest stores to the largest distribution chains extremely well. They offer financial incentives and pull through when it comes to quantities promised. The only reason AMD is having any problems at all with the demand required by Dell, is the fact that Dell is demanding enormous quantities over a short period of time. Dell cannot keep their AMD line of computers on inventory. AMD systems are selling in record numbers through Dell alone. Unlike Intel, AMD is concerned about their considerably smaller clientele. So AMD is trying to adequately feed Dell, while still ensuring solid support for their other customers. My stock options charging upward is also proof of AMD's ability to please the market, it distributors, and all its customers. AMD constantly seems to place its customers and shareholders in high regard. They do a lot for local and international communities as well. Such acts of reason and compassion is extraordinarily rare for a corporation. People just like AMD. Well, of course not the Intel fan boys, but everyone else seems to.

5:49 PM, October 15, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

sharikou, put the INTEL BK aside. I urgently want to know can I short INTC before Tuesady's close?

What kind of ER and guidance INTEL will give in Tuesday?

6:29 PM, October 15, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

SLI..makes no sense to me since when it comes time to replacing, you'll have to sell 2, buy 2[or get 1 slower(or wait a long time for a faster single slot). Same for 4x4.
http://www.eetimes.com/news/latest/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=193004733
"The firm estimates that dual add-in graphics boards (AIBs) generated $86.2 million US dollars in the last twelve months, and $28.4 million the second quarter— 0.5 percent of the overall AIB market."
If that's just 0.5% revenue, units should be even less.

8:16 PM, October 15, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

" Anonymous said...

You can trust some minimum wage monkey at Circuit City, Best Buy or some commissioned minimum wage monkey at Frys.

Anyone with a clue will look at the performance/cost curve. Check out the latest at Tom's..

Its clear AMD offers little but an altenative supplier of lesser value.

That is the simple facts AMD fanboys.

You want performance you buy INTEL
You want value you buy INTEL
You want dependable volume supplier you buy INTEL.

ANy questions geeks?

11:28 AM, October 15, 2006 "

value?
give me a break!
intel forces you to change more of motherboards than a toddler shits his huggies.
every new core. new motherboard..
they want your money sir...
I have changed 3 timesof cpus with AMD, and only changed of motherboard once, and it was becuse the otehr didnt had PCI-E

9:31 PM, October 15, 2006  
Anonymous Graham said...

Not many computers are sold this way relative to the overall totals. I wouldn't buy my PC at Circuit City. Would you?

9:43 PM, October 15, 2006  
Anonymous Graham said...

I think the Dr. is clinically insane... he just needs the diagnosis. Intel will not be 5% of the PC processor market in your lifetime.

9:50 PM, October 15, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"I think Intel has deeper cncerns. In 2Q06, AMD's gross margin was 57%, that was on an ASP of about $90. Intel had a gross margin of 50%, with ASP at about $125."

So quick question - Intel's gross margin is chips only right - It exludes lower margin chipset, MB, wireless prodcuts.... (no of course not!).

Nice to see you are putting together the apples to SUV comparisons again...

And how many 0.5um fabs does Intel have now? 0? Is there also a reason why you didn;t throw in 0.35um or do you just know so little about the technology to know that node occurred between 0.25 and 0.5um.... Oh and how many 0.25um fabs does Intel have now? 0? Yeah probaly won't get much money from fabs that don't exist...spot on analysis as always....

11:31 PM, October 15, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Do I sense some backing away from the 5-7 quarters to BK tagline?"

The prediction was made in Q1 - it's down to 4-6 quarters now, and will soon be 3-5 after the Q3 numbers come out this week...

Oh and this is will be the first of conitnuous opertaing loss quarters from Intel as well... (note Shari-kook predicted OPERATING losses). 3 days to find out if Sharikou is a genius!

11:44 PM, October 15, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"sharikou, put the INTEL BK aside. I urgently want to know can I short INTC before Tuesady's close?"

If you are seriously trying to time the Q3 earnings announcements you should be trading options (calls and puts) to maximize potential profit (or loss if you're wrong).

11:46 PM, October 15, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"I still can't find a Core 2 based system which uses an ATI XPRESS 3200 chipset and only recently did I finally find a Nvidia based motherboard which uses a nForce 590 chipset. Now I could find an AMD based motherboard which uses a nForce 590 chipset for half the price than the expensive Intel based ones. I would imagine the AMD based boards are considerably cheaper because there is more competition for them under the AMD line (thus better selection as well as cheaper prices) and the fact that this chipset has been offered for quite some time for AMD boards"

Core 2 has been out for ALL OF 3 MONTHS! How long has AMD K8 architecture been out now.... Gee can;t figure out why there are more options for a chip that's been out for >3 years vs one that's been out for ~3 months...that's a tough one...

11:53 PM, October 15, 2006  
Anonymous bgt said...

Sharikou, nice analisys, curious to see how this will rollout.

1:35 AM, October 16, 2006  
Blogger 180 Sharikou said...

Your entire assumption on AMD's cost per CPU being lower than Intel cannot be proved. You do not know all the variables to prove this. Unless you know someone personally at Intel and AMD who knows these data points you're making this up. You cannot calculate this from their financial statements either. These are closely guided secrets so don't walk around behaving like you do. Your die size assumptions which you used to calculate capacity were also incorrect as I pointed out on your post a couple of days ago (have not seen an explanation from you):

http://sharikou.blogspot.com/2006/10/charlie-showed-some-wisdom.html

Your theoretical approach is reasonably correct (up to a point - capacity does not = revenue/market share) but your projected end result it incorrect because you do not have the right data which is driving some of your assumptions.

Also remember that for every chip Intel sells, that's one less AMD chip sold. By Q4 if not earlier Intel will start to re-gain market share. Momentum will swing back to them. I'd be interested to see if you can call Q3 for AMD and Intel before they announce. Just as I've taken a stab on my blog. So far though your predictions have fallen far short on Intel's q2 GAAP loss as well the die sizes and hence your resulting capacity estimates are meaningless. I suspect because you already know the end result of your argument before you look at the facts. I keep requestin you to use your knowledge and insight sensibly and you will get a lot more credibility.

http://sharikou180.blogspot.com/
(A more balanced POV)

4:22 AM, October 16, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Core 2 has been out for ALL OF 3 MONTHS! How long has AMD K8 architecture been out now.... Gee can;t figure out why there are more options for a chip that's been out for >3 years vs one that's been out for ~3 months...that's a tough one..."

and?
if intel wasnt a retard and accepted DAMMIT's chipsets, many gamers would have been very happy, sadly... they didnt, their loss and their fault, period, bad point for intel

6:55 AM, October 16, 2006  
Blogger ashenman said...

I think it's funny that people assume the consumers have a clue, and that they'll buy better processors. I'll reiterate... nobody that matters has a clue. Look at who has potential for growth because of how accessible they will be, not because of how well they perform.
AMD is in the right price range at the right time. Core2's are just barely outside of the price range of the average computer consumer. Maybe they'll be a little cheaper around november, but that'll be really hard on Intel, seeing as they haven't even made 25% of their production core 2 yet, and will just be getting there around december.
This isn't just a dell thing. HP is putting the AMD Live option in, what would appear to the average consumer to be, a higher position than the Viiv option, and they have a cheaper processor in it too (so then HP's margins would probably cancel out any negative effects from Dell's). Don't hate Dell so much that you assume it's the only OEM manufacturer on the planet. AMD is gaining prominence with HP as well, and HP is growing. Come christmas time, it's going to really hurt Intel.

9:25 AM, October 16, 2006  
Blogger Jeach! said...

Old news, but what the heck:

ThinkEquity Flips To Buy From Sell

Here is a snippet:


Eric Savitz (Barron's) submits: Eric Ross, semiconductor analyst at ThinkEquity, has flipped his opinion on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) to Buy from Sell, and raised his price target on the stock to $30, from $20. He says that sources in Asia and Europe indicate that fourth quarter demand “should be exceptionally strong.” Ross says he believes Street estimates for the fourth quarter are now too low.

10:54 AM, October 16, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

Your entire assumption on AMD's cost per CPU being lower than Intel cannot be proved. You do not know all the variables to prove this.

What other proof you need, I pointed you to the income statements. Intel has 10x number of people, and is only making 3.5x of CPUs. It takes 3 Intel dudes to do the same work as 1 AMD dude.

10:58 AM, October 16, 2006  
Anonymous enumae said...

Sharikou said...

"It takes 3 Intel dudes to do the same work as 1 AMD dude."

Nevermind Flash, Motherboards, Chipsets, Integrated graphics, R&D ($4 Billion last year, but probably only one or two guys working on it) and of course marketing... somehow I don't see your logic on this one.

11:49 AM, October 16, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

How's the Intel bankrupcy thing going? Any update? How about an earnings forcast for tomorrow oh great knower of nada...

1:07 PM, October 16, 2006  
Anonymous Edward said...

"You can trust some minimum wage monkey at Circuit City, Best Buy or some commissioned minimum wage monkey at Frys."

What are you talking about? You don't need to trust anyone just because you buy from the store he works at.

"Anyone with a clue will look at the performance/cost curve. Check out the latest at Tom's.."

And what makes you think those on-line reviewers are not so-you-called monkeys, too?

"Its clear AMD offers little but an altenative supplier of lesser value."

AMD offers
1) open standards and open competition
2) directions to the leading technologies
3) better (mainstream) values for the buck
4) easier/cheaper upgrade path

"You want performance you buy INTEL"

For server/workstation performance, nothing is better than a 4-socket dual-core Opteron. For gaming performance, nothing is better than an Athlon 64 FX with SLI.

For realistic workloads, Core 2 Duo really shines at media encoding. Unfortunately, most of those are HD and memory, not CPU, limited.

Intel made their previos processor (p4) for the general public fools who want blue crystals; now they make them for review sites benching graphics at low resolution. Cool.

"You want value you buy INTEL"

Tell me how you could get a reasonable Core 2 Duo for under $1k, to get 15% faster WMA encoding over a 30% cheaper X2?

"You want dependable volume supplier you buy INTEL."

Oh, right, that's really important. Dell must've known it when they went AMD, too.

3:11 PM, October 16, 2006  
Anonymous Edward said...

"Gee can;t figure out why there are more options for a chip that's been out for >3 years vs one that's been out for ~3 months...that's a tough one..."

No, the only reason for AMD's CPUs to have more options is because AMD holds an open platform approach.

K8L will have all those chipset support upon launch. Guess you can't figure out why that, can you?

3:16 PM, October 16, 2006  
Blogger Greg said...

enumae, integrated graphics matter because, as you said, only 13% of the computer market are gamers, which means that there's still a good portion of that leftover market that games, but not regularly, who are retarded enough to call OEM's and waste the OEM's money when their computer wont play their games. That's assuming the gamers know what they're doing. Even then, that makes the whole, what's available at what price point more important.

"Intel 2P Woodcrest is better than Opteron 2P, and 2P Cloverton should be about 60-70% better than 2P opteron, thats a 6 months head start and its a drop in for Woodcrest users."
Maybe when tested in low memory capacity configs, but woodcrest performance severely suffers from FB Dimm when you have the amount of memory that most server due stuffing its banks. Even then, opteron still outperforms woodcrest in memory performance (which is most important for servers) and is pretty much as good of a performer as woodcrest. Considering that Intel is dropping FB Dimm support to fix the previously mentioned problem, so technically quad core isn't a drop in solution. Not only that, but applications that really take advantage of 8 core servers wont start appearing until maybe 3 months after cloverton and even then, 8 core servers already exist in the form of quad proc.

"according to reviews." Point some out. All the ones I've read have held s1 laptops in a very positive light not only for performance, but also for price.

7:24 PM, October 16, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Edward said... and said ... and said...

Check back on Wed to see who has the factories, the volume and the profits.

In the END imagine a world without INTEL ( Moore, Noyce, Grove ) or a world with out AMD ( Sanders Ruiz )

Its a laughable comparison.. It sounds glorious to work for the underdog, but if you are smart there is no choice the winner and only relevant company in this business is INTEL. AMD keeps them honest but are really not very important in the great history of x86 or semiconductors.

7:39 PM, October 16, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Edward said........

AMD offers more options, are you joking wait till the can integrate ATI they want nothing more then a closed soluation like INTEL.

7:41 PM, October 16, 2006  
Anonymous enumae said...

Greg said...

"enumae, integrated graphics matter because, as you said, only 13% of the computer market are gamers,"

No what I meant was only 13% of laptops sold are AMD, sorry about that.

In general, prior to Merom, AMD was better at gaming, but battery life and general performance goes to Intel.

Integrated graphics are not for gaming, well not in Intels eyes anyways. Intel is high volume, lower performance when it comes to there graphics, but watching there activity lately, things may be changing.

"Maybe when tested in low memory capacity configs, but woodcrest performance severely suffers from FB Dimm when you have the amount of memory that most server due stuffing its banks."

Everything I have read says the opposite, FB-DIMMS do better with more memory... but there is a trade off...

Here are a few links to a few articles that talk about FB-DIMM and the Mac Pro.

Keep in mind I am talking about the 80% of the server space.

"Even then, opteron still outperforms woodcrest in memory performance (which is most important for servers) and is pretty much as good of a performer as woodcrest."

It doesn't matter how much bandwidth you have, (unless you are 4P and up) if you can not do the work fast enough. Desktop Athlons have alot more bandwidth than Core 2 Duo, yet Core 2 Duo is wining.

"Considering that Intel is dropping FB Dimm support to fix the previously mentioned problem, so technically quad core isn't a drop in solution."

I had read that, but make sure you look at the links, the more FB-DIMMS you add the more bandwidth, but you increase latency. Sorry but yes it is a drop in solution.

"Not only that, but applications that really take advantage of 8 core servers wont start appearing until maybe 3 months after cloverton and even then, 8 core servers already exist in the form of quad proc."

There are Windows applications and Workstation applications that would benefit greatly from dual quad cores. Again 80% of the server marketis 2P, if Woodcrest is doing well then that is alot of potential upgrades (same goes for K8L). Wouldn't you upgrade if you could keep everything the same but swap out processors and have an additional 60-70% performance increase? You bet your ass.

"Point some out. All the ones I've read have held s1 laptops in a very positive light not only for performance, but also for price."

Just to be clear what is s1?

I am not saying that Turion are bad, I don't own a laptop, but here are a few links to websites that review laptops, almost all of there top coices are Intel Core Solo, Core Duo and Core 2 Duo.

-[Link]- -[Link]- -[Link]-

11:26 PM, October 16, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"if intel wasnt a retard and accepted DAMMIT's chipsets, many gamers would have been very happy, sadly... they didnt, their loss and their fault, period, bad point for intel"

Actually it was the OEM's who didn't accept ATI's chipsets for the Core2 and that I'm assuming was partly due to the fact that ATI had no planned support for Intel beyond the initial chipset due to the merger...

11:58 PM, October 16, 2006  
Anonymous Edward said...

"Edward said... and said ... and said...

Check back on Wed to see who has the factories, the volume and the profits.

In the END imagine a world without INTEL ( Moore, Noyce, Grove ) or a world with out AMD ( Sanders Ruiz )"


You guys are really..... should I say immature? Which one word that I said in the comments above has anything to do with Wednesday, or factories, or volumes or profits? Did I mention the world with or without anybody?

You probably didn't read my comments - not even quote them properly. It seems to me that you are just dog-fighting for the stock that you fall in love with. Fine, I hope you have good luck on Wednesday, but that has nothing to do with what I said in the comments above, which are only facts and truth.

2:27 AM, October 17, 2006  
Anonymous Edward said...

"AMD offers more options, are you joking wait till the can integrate ATI they want nothing more then a closed soluation like INTEL."

No I'm not joking. AMD offers more options right now; there's no need to wait.

And if you really knew what's been going on (which you sadly don't), you would've known that AMD+ATi could not offer closed solution UNLESS it builds GPU on-die with the CPU. Why? Because HT is an open standard; it is already out-of AMD's hands, and AMD made it so.

On the other hand, companies need to license Intel FSB in order to make chipsets that work with Intel CPUs. (Did I mention before that Intel-based motherboards are usually more expensive?)

Now see the difference, and why AMD offers more options?

2:40 AM, October 17, 2006  
Blogger hyc said...

enumae said...
I had read that, but make sure you look at the links, the more FB-DIMMS you add the more bandwidth, but you increase latency. Sorry but yes it is a drop in solution.

You only gain bandwidth if you're adding channels. If you add multiple FB-DIMMs on a single channel there's no change in bandwidth but latency still increases.

2:56 AM, October 17, 2006  
Anonymous enumae said...

hyc said...

"You only gain bandwidth if you're adding channels. If you add multiple FB-DIMMs on a single channel there's no change in bandwidth but latency still increases."

Thank you for explaining.

8:29 AM, October 17, 2006  
Blogger ashenman said...

Actually, FB Dimm reduces memory bandwidth (even at its theoretical maximum) compared to registered ddr2. I didn't write that correctly. I should've said, when you put too much memory in, performance decreases.

Enumae, you assume that desktop applications and server applications do the same type of work loads. However, servers generally don't care that much about floating point performance (where woodcrest succeeds) and depend more on being able to access large amounts of memory quickly and repeatedly, which is where opteron still greatly excels.

Those applications that can use 8 threads generally exist within the realm of the 4p server space. Obviously, people who can buy a system that has 8 cores and will benefit from its performance will do so. If they could already, they would have, if they couldn't, then they probably still wont when cloverton comes out. 2p is 80% of the market, not because the sales team from every OEM set apart 80% of their customers and said, "okay, you get 2p". It's 80%, because 80% of the market only needs 4 threads right now, and wouldn't see an increase in performance/price with anymore. Thus, 80% of the market wouldn't really see 60-70% of a performance increase, because their applications wouldn't scale (again, because they're much different than desktop applications).

Socket s1 is the ddr2 compliant dual core turion slot. s1 is very competitive with core, which is still most of the laptop market, and only consumes more power when used with nvidia chipsets (it's pretty much exactly the same as core on their ati package, meaning it has lower power consumption than core 2).

By drop in, I assumed you meant that you could drop that processor in and still have a viable system. Maybe if the system is being used for scientific purposes (a realm mostly consumed by AMD because of 4p) and memory access doesn't matter that much, then they'd just drop it in. But seeing as most of these systems will be upgraded systematically, they'll want to make sure they can upgrade the amount of memory they have (since server applications are more dependent on memory access, and thus would need more memory to take advantage of that many threads), and since fb dimm and chipsets that support it are going the way of the dodo, it's not a very nice drop in. Maybe a lot of people would still do it, so I guess you're basically right.

Actually, it was Intel that refused to renew ATI's license on its memory controller, meaning ATI couldn't make new chipsets for it. OEM's buy what chipsets are recommended by their processor manufacturer. So apparently ATI wasn't "recommended" for this generation of chipsets.

I kinda thought the 13% thing sounded wrong, which is all the more reason for the integrated video to matter. Most people are really stupid, and don't even realize that games have minimum system requirements. So when they slap doom 3 in their laptop, they're going to find that they can't get it to run when they have inegrated intel video, and they're going to call HP/Dell/etc. and piss and moan about it, because they don't get it, and HP/Dell/etc. is either going to have wasted time on the phones with those millions (okay, maybe just thousands) of people who couldn't play those games, and they're going to have dissatisfied customers. Ya, those people should have known better, and it's not HP/Dell/etc.'s fault for not stupid proofing hardware, but it's still something they have to deal with, and they'll be much more comfortable knowing they've got a cheaper solution that's more capable of being stupid-proof.

9:10 AM, October 17, 2006  
Anonymous enumae said...

ashenman said...

"Enumae, you assume that desktop applications and server applications do the same type of work loads."

If I came accross that way it was not intended, I understand they do different things.

"However, servers generally don't care that much about floating point performance (where woodcrest succeeds)"

Actually AMD excels at FP, and Intel at Integer.

"and depend more on being able to access large amounts of memory quickly and repeatedly, which is where Opteron still greatly excels."

I understand that, but (and I do not mean to sound like a broken record), but those large amounts of memory are generaly in 4P and up, or am I missing something?

"Those applications that can use 8 threads generally exist within the realm of the 4p server space."

I do and don't agree, any well written application can utilize as many cores that are available, granted servers are more prone to good coding but Desktop and Workstations are/or have some well wrtten apps.

"Obviously, people who can buy a system that has 8 cores and will benefit from its performance will do so. If they could already, they would have, if they couldn't, then they probably still wont when cloverton comes out."

I have to disagree, what does an Quad Socket server board cost vs a Dual socket?

Example...

Newegg = Quad Socket 940 About $1160 - $1230

Newegg = Dual Socket 940 About $130 - $504

At least double, and to think that if you needed an upgrade, all you would need is new processors, you can not beat that.

"2p is 80% of the market, not because the sales team from every OEM set apart 80% of their customers and said, "okay, you get 2p". It's 80%, because 80% of the market only needs 4 threads right now, and wouldn't see an increase in performance/price with anymore. Thus, 80% of the market wouldn't really see 60-70% of a performance increase, because their applications wouldn't scale (again, because they're much different than desktop applications)."

I have to disagree, if there is a segment that would scale it would be Server and Workstations.

"Socket s1 is the ddr2 compliant dual core turion slot. s1 is very competitive with core, which is still most of the laptop market, and only consumes more power when used with nvidia chipsets (it's pretty much exactly the same as core on their ati package, meaning it has lower power consumption than core 2)."

Better power than Core 2 Duo, I'll give you that but not by much, but performance wise it can not touch it.

Considering that Notebook is the fastest growing segment it would pay off greatly to have the performance lead there, and just a thought to keep in mind, Intel at 45nm will be a very attractive mobile processor.

"and since fb dimm and chipsets that support it are going the way of the dodo, it's not a very nice drop in."

That was clever...lol

Again I am talking about 2P (and appologize if I had not made that clear earlier), to go from 4 cores to 8 cores in most Server, Workstation applications it would greatly improve performance, again if there is a segment that could use more processing power it would be those.

"I kinda thought the 13% thing sounded wrong, which is all the more reason for the integrated video to matter."

But at the same time, if your a gamer you understand that mobile is not the platform.

"Most people are really stupid, and don't even realize that games have minimum system requirements."

Agreed.

"is either going to have wasted time on the phones with those millions (okay, maybe just thousands) of people who couldn't play those games, and they're going to have dissatisfied customers."

I do not think they would be dissatisfied, but they would be more aware on a future purchases.

"Ya, those people should have known better, and it's not HP/Dell/etc.'s fault for not stupid proofing hardware, but it's still something they have to deal with, and they'll be much more comfortable knowing they've got a cheaper solution that's more capable of being stupid-proof."

At the same time, I would have to bet that the majority of Dell/HP etc. are business users.

Damn my fingers are tired :)

4:14 PM, October 17, 2006  

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