Tuesday, October 17, 2006

75% of Intel's 4Q06 supply are crap

Read this on Intel's 4Q06 product supply plan:

Pentium 4-- 40%
Pentium D 8xx (90nm) -- 25%
Pentium D 9xx (65nm, Presler) -- 10%
Conroe -- 25%

I think Intel will have to write off all Celerons, no one wants that crap, when they can buy Sempron 64 at lower price.

DELL has plenty of AMD chips.

19 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

From dell.com

Status as of 10/17/2006 3:54:32 PM Eastern Standard Time

Order Date: 9/29/06
Production Date: 9/29/2006
Estimated Delivery Date is:10/24/06

Thats for a 5000+, I know of other CPU speeds that are delayed the exact same date. Something fishy going on at Dell if its not a CPU shipment.

12:57 PM, October 17, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Does this mean AMD is about to take 75% of the market :-)

1:20 PM, October 17, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Pretender

BK here they come

Whisper # was 18cents they blew it away at 25 cents or 22 cents adjusted.

Damm good! Imagine Q1'2007 as they continue to push Core2 thrue the stack. The fact that them P4 heaters are still selling only tells you there is still demand, lots of it. And they made 1.4 billion doing it!

BK there they go. Is that 4 quarters and counting? Or are you revising the BK schedule?

1:32 PM, October 17, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You should have mentioned this in your blog.

The Core 2 Duo is showing better performance [than AMD's chips] at the moment.

1:37 PM, October 17, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

--Sharikou, can you explain why Intel posted a Q3 net profit of $1.3 Billion when you predicted "Massive operating losses for Q3'06"?

1:38 PM, October 17, 2006  
Anonymous Graham said...

Yep. Intel is going bankrupt for sure...

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/061017/intel_earns.html?.v=2

Another of Sharikou's useless predictions going up in smoke by the quarter. I hope no one is investing money based on SHarikou predictions (except Sharikou himself).

1:39 PM, October 17, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wow, Intel really is close to being "BK"! Look at their financial numbers for Q3, I mean they only beat expectations by 30%!

Haha. Your crackpot theories really are amusing.

2:41 PM, October 17, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It is rediculess how crappy the pentium prices are. I mean a sempron 2800 is 40 bucks and you would need a pentium 4 at the same speed to beat it. They charge about twice the money. What a rip off. Guess thats why AMD's stock is still going up and Intels is going down. And a PD-805 is a joke. I donesn't even have enough FSB to do anything with. Can't get any speed out of it like a standrad PD. Thats just silly.

2:50 PM, October 17, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Congratulations Intel on a nice Q3. Down 35% from same Q3-05. I’m amazed Intel could make a billion dollars in a chip war. How do they do that?

3:00 PM, October 17, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Now I’m not a Intel fanboy and my personal system is a Athlon X2 4600 and I host a website that run on a Dual dualcore optron server. But I’m glad to see you are wrong, first of all I think you are a narrow minded fanboy without sense of realisem. Second of all no matter who is winning we need 2 manufacturers of CPU’s to keep each other on its heels making products cheaper and faster.

Intel is not making as much money off their desktop processor business as they used to do but it is still more money than AMD makes as a company. Also you can bet on Intel to do better once they ramp up the core 2 sales. Ohh and by the way wasn’t it you that told us that Intel would only sell 1 million Core 2 CPU’s this year? Guess you were wrong they had shipped 5 million by September 28.

3:41 PM, October 17, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

" Anonymous said...

Pretender

BK here they come

Whisper # was 18cents they blew it away at 25 cents or 22 cents adjusted.

Damm good! Imagine Q1'2007 as they continue to push Core2 thrue the stack. The fact that them P4 heaters are still selling only tells you there is still demand, lots of it. And they made 1.4 billion doing it!

BK there they go. Is that 4 quarters and counting? Or are you revising the BK schedule?

1:32 PM, October 17, 2006 "

no, its a further proof that Intel monopolistical behavior is still rampant everywhere.
as soon Dell, Lenovo and other companies starts selling AMD big time, it will be a 180 degree turn.

4:23 PM, October 17, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

" Anonymous said...

Wow, Intel really is close to being "BK"! Look at their financial numbers for Q3, I mean they only beat expectations by 30%!

Haha. Your crackpot theories really are amusing.

2:41 PM, October 17, 2006 "

you forgot that intel just sold a few of their sections?
marketting, comunications..etc.
I wouldnt be surprised if these gave intel enought money to actually "patch" the loss due of processors.

4:23 PM, October 17, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

you forgot that intel just sold a few of their sections?

Net impact of one-time events including sales of business, inventory write-down (not expected to reoccur in Q4 per CC), and restructuring (layoff) costs was a mere 1.5 cents/share.

4:54 PM, October 17, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You do know these are desktop chips only right? What % of this is overall chip capacity? 30%?

You fail to mention Intel has been converting server products to Core2 much more aggressively than desktop.

If Dell has plenty of AMD chips, why is the channel starving? Notice Dell did not deny claims of requiring a guaranteed inventory - what this is doing is forcing Dell to build inventory while starving other potential shares.

As Dell market share has been dropping of late, I'm not sure if keeping Dell happy is the best long term plan...AMD is leaving a lot of current potential sales on the table right now in order to win some Dell business. Also probably not getting as good a price from Dell (due to high volume discounts) as they would be getting from the channel and smaller OEM's

7:03 PM, October 17, 2006  
Blogger Jeach! said...

Sharikou, can you explain why Intel posted a Q3 net profit of $1.3 Billion when you predicted "Massive operating losses for Q3'06"?

That's because Intel is refusing to do their accounting properly! They have so far only wrote-off a fraction of what they will have to write-off in the future. They are in financial denial.

Read this from MarketWatch:


Intel said its latest results included gains of $230 million, resulting from the sales of businesses and an investment in Micron Technology Inc. Intel, which has been saddled with a glut of chips for most of the year, also said it wrote-off older microprocessor inventory worth $100 million.


For god sake, they included one-time gains but only put a fraction of their one-time expenses. The last company to do this (for this long) was Enron.

----


I mean they only beat expectations by 30%!


YOU sir, have an IQ of 30!! Expectation was set by Intel, and then a bunch of analyst took that number and changed it by +/- 10%.

Every year at MY company, we beat expectation by 234% (average). Hury up and invest, here's our stock symbol: IDIOT

How can you think this is great?

Intel's revenue slipped 13 percent from the comparable 2005 period and 10 percent sequentially... during a strong processor sales year!

Margins fell from what, 82% to 72%!

Lost market share in EVERY segment!

Lost DELL as a loyal customer!

Man things are great at Intel!! I might just buy some of their stocks, I heard they will be giving away a processor as dividend next quarter!

Does anyone know how long they are aloud to legaly deffer their losses from their books?

10:21 PM, October 17, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You numbskulls crack me up. Let's see how AMD's numbers are.

Intel did well in a tough climate. You're in for very bad news from AMD, and an even worse outlook for Q4.

11:40 PM, October 17, 2006  
Blogger duploxxx said...

if you think Q4 will be bad for AMD, think again. 65nm will be supplied to all OEM, so a much better margin then before and more than enough procs for all of them.

clock Performance in the server segment will be gone, no more idiot reviews comparing 2.6 - 2.8 versus 3.0.

New quadfather is much more interesting and performant then kentucky.

Xe remains performance crown in desktop, but x26000 will be faster then e6600 and better price then e6700.

12:23 AM, October 18, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jeach! said...
....
...


you must have lost a lot of money on AMD stock. may god bless you.

7:49 AM, October 18, 2006  
Anonymous dan said...

Just a gut feeling, but I suspect Q406 and Q107 for AMD will almost kill them.
- AMD 65nm production is yet to be announced. What about 45nm?
- Intel old stock is *somehow* competing with AMD new stock.
- Intel new stock is killing AMD in performance.
- High end AMD processors are being kicked to crap by the availability and price of midrange Intel stock.
- Kentsfield will be out this quarter long ahead of K8L, and by most prelim accounts be far better than K8L. No one except hardcore AMD fanatics will wait for a K8L if that's the market they fall into.
- Those not interested in Quad cores will stick to dual cores, in which AMD has lost the race already.
- AMD may be improving their mobile CPUs but their poor reputation in this market will be hard to overcome.

Opterons are white-hot of course, rightfully. This will get them through the long cold winter, but AMD had better focus on one market to try and dominate instead of speading itself thin and losing is so many areas like it is right now.

Intel has little to fear from AMD right now, unfortunately. If Intel continues trumping AMD like it has been for the last few months, I wouldn't be surprised if AMD went bankrupt - not Intel!

8:29 AM, October 18, 2006  

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