Wednesday, June 28, 2006

Woodcrest a paper launch

Originally, Paul Otellini promised a Woodcrest launch date of June 19, 2006. It was delayed to June 26, 2006. However, checking various online vendors via www.froogle.com, all you get is a bunch of baggies. On HP.com, Woodcrest based servers have a ship date of July 18. IBM won't ship Woodcrest servers until August. On GamePC.com, the Woodcrest CPUs have a ETA date of July 31, 2006... If you see a Woody somewhere, let me know.




I remember Pat Gelsinger saying that he was going to ramp Woodcrest through the nose. So I expected at least 10 days of supply on launch. The world's total server shipment per quarter is only 1.5 million units, including non x86 ones. That's about 16,000 units per day. Assuming they are all 2P Intel, that's only 32,000 CPUs per day. Ten days supply is only 0.32 million chips. Judging from the availability, I would estimate that Intel accumulated less than 50,000 chips from June 19 to June 26. In other words, Intel is making less than 10,000 Woodcrest CPUs per day -- off its development FABs, I presume.

Even more surprisingly, with so much guerilla benchmarketing, two days after Woodcrest launch, not a single person made single purchase. As you can see there is zero back order for Woodcrest. Intel execs must be shouting at each other in panic now.

AMD sells 120,000 Opteron 8xx CPUs per month to Google alone.

Opteron 265 has a shortage, 917 back orders.


Plenty of Dempsey chips that no one wants.

34 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I FEEL THAT AMD IS ALSO MAKING PAPER LAUNCH OF THE AMD ATHLON X2 3800 AM2 35W VERSION. I HAVE NO WAY OF FINDING IT WITH ANY ONLINE E-TAILERS IN-STOCK.

hingsun

2:51 PM, June 28, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Checkout this link:
http://techsearch.cmp.com/blog/archives/2006/06/amd_vs_intel_an.html
It makes for a good read.

3:04 PM, June 28, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

FEEL THAT AMD IS ALSO MAKING PAPER LAUNCH OF THE AMD ATHLON X2 3800 AM2 35W VERSION.

I saw one report with a picture of the boxed version selling in a Japanese store. But I haven't seen one anywhere online.

3:13 PM, June 28, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sharikou,

I have been reading your blog for quite sometimes, however this is the 1st day i post my comment. i found your blog is very good and informative and it is especially good for AMD lover like me and others who want to find the latest news and rumours. However i do wish to see Intel bashing thing to be kept to a minimum and we AMD lover just stick to the fact in hand. Anyway, we AMD lover do know that AMD has the best technology right now.

3:17 PM, June 28, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Above post about dont want Intel bashing is my post.

-MyBoy-

3:20 PM, June 28, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

What all you AMD fanboys need to realize is that the behaviour of intel is practically what has become expected when a company becomes a monopoly in a market for too long. Yes I totally hate the shit intel has been giving us since prescott and I do agree that they aren't the best of companies but imagine what would happen if intel suddenly became bankrupt and suddenly amd quite literally becomes the sole supplier of competent microprocessors to the market. AMD, would now be in the situation where intel was in the early 90's with no real competitor and they will just like intel had become more and more complacent over time.

Be careful what you wish for.

Would I like to see intel go? Yes! I would also like amd become the market leader for the time being but not before a competent chip company with potential comes along and is able to poke what would then be a market leading amd in the side to keep them moving.

3:27 PM, June 28, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I didn't know that the 35W version was supposed to be in e-tail or retail.
I always thought that it was meant for OEMs to use in their AMD Live boxes.

3:30 PM, June 28, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Intel is Apple's bitch now. So until Apple introduces new machines with new Intel chips, Intel does not get to ship. It is as simple as that.

So expect a new XServe announcement in the near future.

After Apple, Dell may get the few chips that are left over.

3:49 PM, June 28, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dell doesn't seem to list delays in availability.

http://www1.ca.dell.com/content/products/features.aspx/pedge_2900?c=ca&cs=CALCA1&l=en&s=biz

I believe Dell usually warns you if a component you selected would delay the shipment of your product and in this case no such delay is listed for the Woodcrest processors which are offered side-by-side with Dempsey.

http://configure.dell.com/dellstore/config.aspx?c=ca&CS=CALCA1&l=en&oc=OCPEDGE2900_RBP_ADVANCED

I don't have a Dell account since I'm not a big Dell fan so I can't go all the way to shipping for additional details, but there doesn't seem to be any delays from what I can see.

I'm not sure how much better AMD is with availability either, since I still haven't seen any Turion64 X2 laptops available in retail. I know products have been demoed and launched, but I don't see them in stores.

4:23 PM, June 28, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

I'm not sure how much better AMD is with availability either

You can see that AMD is having shortages with some of its chips.

4:26 PM, June 28, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Google also just announced they are moving to Intel based Dell systems.

Whooops...

Holy AMD fanboism!

and a fake PHD to boot!

4:36 PM, June 28, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

Google also just announced they are moving to Intel based Dell systems.

In your wet dreams maybe. My friends at Google said Intel was crap. Rumor says a tearful Paul O begged Lary Page at one of Google's board meetings, but Dr. Page said Google had to grow and Opteron is the only chip in town that does 4P SMP at good price/performance.

4:40 PM, June 28, 2006  
Anonymous Boytoreckonwith said...

i usually agree with you about stuff, but "my friends at google" sounds kinda ambiguous. do you really have friends, or at least acquaintannces, at google? Who are they? What department do the work in - IT? And where are their blogs?

4:49 PM, June 28, 2006  
Anonymous jsf said...

Google also just announced they are moving to Intel based Dell systems.

Well, it seems to be true, or that is what the inq says...

http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=32617

5:39 PM, June 28, 2006  
Anonymous Edward said...

"... but imagine what would happen if intel suddenly became bankrupt and suddenly amd quite literally becomes the sole supplier of competent microprocessors to the market."

Please put your imagination to a better use, and imagine what would happen if Intel had played fairly and openly with its competitors and customers, how much better today's 80% CPU market will be!

5:43 PM, June 28, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...


Google goggle, Intel Wintel and ding dong Dell

5:43 PM, June 28, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Scorched Earth?

http://www.forbes.com/home/businesstech/2006/04/20/intel-otellini-earnings_cx_ck_0420intel.html

"Sales declined 5% in the first quarter from the same time last year, but marketing, general and administrative costs rose 30%."

Intel is a very healty company...

6:30 PM, June 28, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Scorched Earth?

http://www.forbes.com/home/businesstech/2006/04/20/intel-otellini-earnings_cx_ck_0420intel.html

"Sales declined 5% in the first quarter from the same time last year, but marketing, general and administrative costs rose 30%."

Intel is a very healty company..."

Try reading the rest of the article, Intel is far from the health of it's earlier days.

"...but marketing, general and administrative costs rose 30%. Intel's payrolls expanded by 20% to 103,000 and gross margins fell to 55.1% from 59.3%.

The prognosis for the current quarter and the rest of the year isn't rosy, either."

While Sharikou's finacial analysis of Intel's collapse is slightly overblown IMHO, his facts and analysis is fairly accurate, much to the chagrin of his detractors here and as much as they want to dispute it.

Selling outdated inventory at a steep loss with little money to pay the current bills while you're rushing to get a new product line that will barely make profits due to a pricing war with your competition is trouble. Thier new line of inventory will not satisfy the entire market until another 2 quarters(Intel predicts 30% market penentration with Woodcrest/Merom/Conroe by the end of the year) due to what I assume is a slow ramp... It's a situation capable of creating a recipe for disaster.

Not a smart move there Paul-o.

9:16 AM, June 29, 2006  
Anonymous jsf said...

Google goggle, Intel Wintel and ding dong Dell

This isn't the first time the inq contradicts itself, is it?
That piece of news also confirms the benchmarks which say that Opteron is better that Woodcrest in the server arena.

10:07 AM, June 29, 2006  
Anonymous Richard said...

Try reading the rest of the article, Intel is far from the health of it's earlier days.

I believe he was being sarcastic :P

10:07 AM, June 29, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

even if intel's market cap was to be cut in half for whatever reasons, it'll still be 5-6 times larger than amd. sorry, but intel won't just roll over and die. afterall there are about 3/4 of those wallstreet crooks recommending a buy for intel. i think all the intel fanboys should rush out and buy up those intel stocks because you know conroe/woodcrest will be the cream of the crops later on this year. i wonder if intel will ever be on life support in the future.

12:38 PM, June 29, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

even if intel's market cap was to be cut in half for whatever reasons

Once Intel posts a loss, its stock will fall to $5 and market cap reduced to about $20 b.

1:06 PM, June 29, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

whoa, $5. i wouldn't go that far. if that's true, then those analysts on wallstreet should commit suicide. i see a target price of around $14 for intel. i wonder if $20Bln will be enough to feed 100,000 employees. in other news, seems like amd is getting some pretty good incentives for building a fab in NY state. logistically, it doesn't make alot of sense to have a fab there since the cost is going to be high. why not texas or the southeast like north/south carolina. seems like everbody is moving to durham or raleigh these. how do i know this, my firm moved half of the IT staffs to durham/raleigh.

1:26 PM, June 29, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Paper launch? You can buy servers from Dell now with Xeon 5100 chips. Maybe you should check other sources before jumping to conclusions? But then again you're not a real journalist just a hack.

2:10 PM, June 29, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Paper launch? You can buy servers from Dell now with Xeon 5100 chips. Maybe you should check other sources before jumping to conclusions? But then again you're not a real journalist just a hack."

Yes, orders are being taken, but what's the estimated shipping date??

4:07 PM, June 29, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I just checked on Dell Small Business. It seems estimated ship date is 8/1/06 for PowerEdge 2900 with Woodcrests, and 7/12/06 for the same PowerEdge with ... Dempseys.

One would expect there would be a sufficient number of unbiased Woodcrest reviews before 8/1/06 though. If there aren't, then Dell better not delay it's 8/1/06 date.

4:40 PM, June 29, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=32672

BIG BLUE announced the X3550 server which uses Intel's 5150, 5140, 5130, 5120 and 5110 Xeon "Woodcrest" chips.

But although Intel announced its Xeons yesterday, these boxes won't be available until the end of August.

5:23 PM, June 29, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

So it seems that availability for Woodcrest Xeons, even for "first class Intel sellers" , will be September.
So, seems to me that the 6 months advantage Intel have on AMD on 65nm parts is cut to 4. As Sharikou already pointed, being Woodcrest a server chip and being the server market a fraction of the general x86 market in terms of crude numbers of CPUs, this means that Intel has low yields or is simply not ready to ship.
So the scenario might be that when you could buy a Woodcrest without trouble and without waiting (let's say October-November) you will have 65 nm parts from AMD in a month-time?

2:49 AM, June 30, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=32672

BIG BLUE announced the X3550 server which uses Intel's 5150, 5140, 5130, 5120 and 5110 Xeon "Woodcrest" chips.

But although Intel announced its Xeons yesterday, these boxes won't be available until the end of August. "

This is exactly the definition of what we call... a "PAPER LAUNCH".

7:34 AM, June 30, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"So the scenario might be that when you could buy a Woodcrest without trouble and without waiting (let's say October-November) you will have 65 nm parts from AMD in a month-time?"

So AMD will have widespread 65nm parts in Dec?

4:39 PM, June 30, 2006  
Blogger Joshua said...

well a here's a woody for $400
http://www.nhelectronics.com/dhbx805565130a.html

2:09 PM, July 04, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Reuters reported AMD 2Q 2006 to be up 52% from same time last year, but slightly down from annalist estimates. Intel fanboys do the math. Do you think Woody and the Con- are going to stop the bleeding? The Intel dog & pony show says they're hot, but I don’t see anything yet. You must not of ordered in yet.

6:34 PM, July 06, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"So the scenario might be that when you could buy a Woodcrest without trouble and without waiting (let's say October-November) you will have 65 nm parts from AMD in a month-time?"

And AMD will do a paper launch just like Intel and Apple and the rest of industry. Expect the 65 nano processors to be available sometime in Q1 or q2 07. So, you see my friend, Sharikou will never see the cup half full.

5:12 PM, July 07, 2006  
Blogger Joshua said...

Anyone saw meh woody web?!

8:17 PM, July 11, 2006  

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