Monday, February 20, 2006

Outdated INTEL technlogy doesn't sell

Philips cancelled a 700 million contract with DELL. SAP recommended Opteron as 2006 upgrade for better ERP peformance. More and more enterprises are realizing that INTEL technology is antiquated and has no future.

I had predicted that the impending mass extinction of Netburst based Pentium 4 and Xeon will slow customer purchase of INTEL technology in 2006. Few enterprises want to invest millions in CPUs that will be obsolete in just 6 months. Even those diehard INTEL fanboys will wait till 4Q06 for Conroe and Merom. Coupled with growing market recognition of AMD64, I expect 15-20% fall of INTEL's revenue in 1Q06.

Yet, even fewer enterprises will invest millions in CPUs that will be obsolete in just 3 months, therefore expect INTEL's revenue to fall even more in 2Q06, as we get nearer to the release of INTEL's next generation 32 bit technology that is incompatible with the AMD64 and HyperTransport industry standards.

Those who are uninformed and still pouring millions into the dying Netburst P4 and Xeon will regret deeply in just a few months, and will turn their backs to INTEL in the near future.

The whole INTEL architecture is in an unstable flux. We hear about all these INTEL vaporware which no one has seen yet touted as the next killer chip. Even if its engineering matches its marketing, INTEL means discontinuity. INTEL's outdated FSB technology often requires new chipsets and new buses when upgrading the CPU, this means you will have to get a new motherboard for a new INTEL CPU. You need a new motherboard when going from Paxville to Dempsey, then you need another new board when going from Dempsey to Woodcrest, when you choose Conroe for desktop, it's a whole new purchase yet again-- even the voltage regulator must be changed.

AMD64 provides a continuous upgradable path. You can upgrade from single core AMD to dual core then to quad-core. The beauty of HyperTransport even allows today's 3rd party chipset to work with future AMD CPUs -- AMD64 CPUs connects directly to memory and HyperTransport is the only communication between the CPU and the rest of the external world, and HyperTransport is backward compatible.

Software compatibility will be a major issue for INTEL. Microsoft Windows Vista is built for AMD64, you can see this when you use Microsoft's C++ compiler options. SUN Java officially only supports AMD64. Linux has work around code for INTEL's EM64T but there are major performance compromises. Solaris 10 doesn't support EM64T at all.

9 Comments:

Anonymous P- said...

'INTC: bought some positions today at $20.67. I may consider short some AMD shares in the mean time. Strategically, INTC can kill AMD if it wants.'

this from http://drge.blogspot.com/

Do you believe his last sentence to be true?...

7:16 PM, February 20, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

A lot of uninformed investors will lose big when INTEL crashes. The computing industry is undergoing the AMD64 revolution. My projection is that INTEL will see large losses and layoffs in 2007. There is a 5 year technology gap between AMD and INTEL.

If you are investing on AMD or INTC, read this blog.

4:40 PM, February 21, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

I would strongly advise against shorting AMD. Your loss is really unlimited in this case. The gap between AMD and INTEL is so big, I don't really see how INTEL can catch up. The Merom/Conroe stuff is so primitive compared to AMD64 yet touted as next generation...

My target price for AMD is $160 after 4Q06 earnings report.

4:55 PM, February 21, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

AMD provides a continuous upgrade path, does it? They release the Athlon 64 in a Socket 754 - being restricted to single channel memory. They also released the Athlon 64 FX, with a Socket 940 (Yes, I do know AMD continued on with Socket 940 for server processors!). Less than a year later; they replace both Socket 754 and 940 on the desktop with Socket 939. Now in June they're planning on introducing the Socket AM2. Will AMD ever stop playing musical sockets? Also, who ever said AMD would make quad core CPUS for Socket 939 or 940? It’s far more likely that these will be made for the upcoming Socket AM2, and Socket F.

With regards to commenting on Woodcrest/Conroe/Merom all needing new motherboards, what did you expect? This is a brand new architecture we're talking about. Did Athlon 64s work in Athlon XP Socket A motherboards when the Athlon 64 was released? Of course not. You needed a new motherboard - just the same as you will for Woodcrest/Conroe/Merom.

Another thing: Conroe, Woodcrest and Merom are not based on either the Pentium Pro or the Netburst architectures - Despite the crap you write stating otherwise. Sure, they took some ideas from both architectures, but that's it. It's just as much a new architecture as the Athlon 64 was over the Athlon XP.

Oh my I'm going to laugh when AMD releases its new Socket in June, with the only change being DDR2 compatibility (Intel will have done that two years before AMD!). Intel will then release Conroe in July and kick some butt. Of course then I'm sure you'll post more junk about how Intel must have paid every reviewer out there to rig the benchmarks in favour of Intel.


Now maybe you'll shut up for ten seconds and quit posting this endless AMD drivel. I swear you must be getting paid for running this blog!


Go get a life, seriously!

3:57 AM, February 22, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

AMD's changes on CPU socket interface make perfect sense, unless we go to DDR2 800, DDR2 does not offer visible performance advantages over DDRI. AMD could have provided DDRII support in 2005 or earlier, but it purposedly delayed it till June 2006. Thus the change in CPU socket. AMD will continue to provide upgrades for Sokcet 939 platforms with DDRI support with higher clockspeeds as market demands. INTEL can't do similar upgrades, as it has already hit the frequency ceiling and all its chips are at max poower of 170 watts and are all overclocked. 65nm process did not provide visible benefit for INTEL. For all Pentium 4 and Xeon buyers today, their platform is on death roll.

Even socket 754 AMD users can upgrade today. As we see from the SPCR http://www.silentpcreview.com/ article and VooDooPC products, you can use high end Turion 64 CPUs on desktop, which offers great performance and low power consumption.

In summary, AMD is constantly upgrading its existing socket 754, 939 and 940 product portfolio by making core reveisions and increasing clockspeed. All existing INTEL stuff are 100% outdated.

Merom/Conroe is no more than Pentium Pro+Netburst, the Israeli amateurs know how to brag, but they are no match to the grand masters in AMD. Let them sit at the same conference table, the Israeli amateurs can't even understand the AMD masters who designed DEC Alpha, SUN UltraSparc and IBM Power.

AMD is 5 generations ahead.

7:32 AM, February 22, 2006  
Blogger netrama said...

This is so true dude ...designing good hardware is like an art...Anybody can throw a spec at those college grads in Intel's centers India or Israel..what do you think will the OUTCOME BE ?? Add to this the enormous communication gaps and low 'real' world understanding of hardware by these folks in India or Israel.. I am sure that for most of these kids ..wouldnt have, even held a Printed Circuit board in their hands...and havent even heard of may be a PS2 or XBOX 360. Compare this to the guys in AMD who have been living inside hardware since they would have been in diapers..
Would you buy a chip designed by those Intel Amatuers ??

2:29 PM, February 22, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"SUN Java officially only supports AMD64."

Where did you get this idea?

12:16 AM, March 05, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

I was a bit sloppy with that Java sentence. Java of course supports IA32. However, in the category of x86_64, I only see AMD64 support, no EM64T. Also, Solaris 10 only supports AMD64, not EM64T. I think that's good. EM64T is missing some key features of AMD64 and performs worse than 32 bit mode.

8:30 AM, March 05, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

as for needing another motherboard when AM2 comes out, the new ULI chipset supports a future CPU upgrade slot that will let you use the am2 cpu's in the 939 motherboard with an add on card when the new cpu's come out. Motherboards like the ASRock 939SLI32-eSATA2 Socket 939 ULi M1697 feature this, and they cost a lot less than Intel mobos do. Where's Intel's version of that? Oh, wait, it doesn't exist.

3:51 PM, March 07, 2006  

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