Sunday, December 11, 2005

INTEL's 2006 outlook mixed

Upside:

1) Apple may start shipping x86 Macs. Although Apple may not do a 100% switch overnite( there are a lot of PowerPC software there), it has the potential to eat a lot of MS Windows market and grow -- to the displeasure of Bill Gates. Apple currently has 2% of the global PC market, or about 4 million units.

2) The VIIV might be a hit.

3) 65nm production already started, 6 months ahead of AMD.

4) DELL dude is still loyal to INTEL.

Downside:

0) More people get to know AMD's lead.

1) Yonah and Sossaman will be 32 bit only, can't run 64 bit applications and not suitable for enterprise computing that needs more than 4GB.

2) Server segment will continue to be non-competitive, as Paxville and Dempsey both lag far behind Opteron in performance.

3) Total transition to new Pentium III based archicture in 2H 2006 will cause mass extinction of P4 architecture and slow customer purchase of P4 and P4 based Xeons including Paxville and Dempsey.

4) Xbox 360 uses IBM chip. Expect the x86 version to die soon, that is 20 million annual INTEL units fading away.

5) The $100 laptop with AMD chip will start shipping in millions, it will definitely eat some celeron market.

6) AMD FAB36 has been in production for 2 months already, finished products will flood the market in Q1 2006.

7) DELL dude will ask more discounts to reward his loyalty.

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