Saturday, February 18, 2006

If Jim Schneider and Kevin Rollins were telling the truth

If they were not lying and defrauding investors, and the last week of January 2006 did only generate 30% to 40% of revenue of a normal week (2-3% revenue from 7% of the days). Now, considering that DELL has the best prices for INTEL parts, this would indicate that INTEL PCes and servers were not selling, even at rock bottom prices.

RBC Capital Markets did channel checks and concluded that INTEL's "March quarter, as well as 2006 business trends, are significantly lower than current expectations."

How much lower? My estimate is 15% to 20% lower.

Informed computer users who want to buy a PC now will choose AMD64, even INTEL diehards not in a hurry will wait till 4Q06 for Conroe. The 3rd world is INTEL's only refuge, but 60% of DELL's business is in US. (100- 60 = 40, matches DELL's weekX revenue numbers).

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