Sunday, November 20, 2005

Now, it's time for DELL to go AMD

The following was an email message I sent to Mr. Michael Dell, Paul Ottellini of INTEL and Hector Ruiz at AMD.

Wed, 16 Nov 2005 14:19:33 -0800 (PST)

INTEL folks, I bet those glueless 32P quad-core
Opterons with 1207 pins and 2 memory controllers are
scary stuff. It would take INTEL engineers 15 years to
design such a beast. I bet IBM is scared too. SUN
should also be scared, but it is in Opteron business
and it will probably pull off something like a 16 core
UltraSparc T2 by 2007, with 32 chips, you get 512 way
and 2048 threads.

What about DELL?

Now, it's well established that INTEL is a second
class CPU vendor with 5 year minimum lag, and AMD
FAB36 is ready to flood the market, I think the time
has come for DELL to go AMD. AMD has unmatched
performance and performance/watt on desktops.

INTEL may threaten to cut off bonuses and rebates,
DELL can counter that by a simple threat of going 100%
AMD--AMD can quickly order some equipment and add the
capacity. In retrospect, DELL made what INTEL is
today, without DELL's 100% INTEL stance, AMD would
have been much more successful, probably at 30% market
already, leaving INTEL at 60+%. DELL execes have an
obligation to its share holders, and it's nothing
glorious about sticking with a known tech underdog
like INTEL.

The alternative will be this: DELL market share keeps
falling and stock keeps falling until it reaches an
implosion point of bursting bubble, 80 billion market
cap crashes onto 5 billion assets, stock holders sue
execes for personal libialities, Feds knocking the
doors to investigate, congress subpoenae testmonies,
when something this big fails, there will always be a
lot of snooping around finding scapegoats, and the
best strategy is to prevent that from happening before
hand. I doubt anyone can claim he is 100% clean. Enron
and WorldCom CEOs could probably keep their way of
life if they managed to get their huge companies
afloat.

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