Intel may suffer losses in 2Q06, 3Q06, 4Q06, 1Q07, 2Q07, 3Q07

For Intel, the common scene for the next 12 months will be impariment of goodwill (abandonment of acquired technologies and businesses), writing off inventory, writing off assets (old FABs, etc), one time charge for layoffs, price crash, unit share loss, etc, etc. Intel's stock holder equity will vaporize faster than that of Enron. GAAP loss is a certainty, but I also see operating loss from 3Q06 onward. I previously projected mass layoffs in 2007, but since Intel failed to execute a survival strategy, I projected a faster collapse in Feb 2006.

2Q06: 40% price drop, 20% volume drop, impairment on goodwill, one time charges for massive 16,000 layoff. GAAP loss in the bag. Expect Intel to warn soon. Currently, Wall Street expects Intel to earn $0.15 per share. Expect ($0.05) loss at minimum.

3Q06: Conroe ramps to 10%. 20% additional price drop of P4, mobile CPU price crash, 10% additional volume drop. Operating loss expected. Plus more impairment on goodwill, plus one time charge on inventory write off.

4Q06: Conroe ramps to 20%. Merom ramps to 10%. Further reduction of P4 and Core Duo price. Revenue flat from 3Q06 in a seasonally up quarter. Operating loss. AMD exit 2006 with 40% market share (run rate).

1Q07: Conroe ramps to 35% of desktop units. Revenue down more than seasonal as AMD's 65nm parts flood the market.

2Q07: Intel server market share drops to 40% as AMD ramps Rev H quadcore. Bulldozer hits hard.

3Q07: AMD FAB36 ramps to 20,000wspm at 65nm. FAB38 ramps. Chartered FAB7 ramps. AMD grabs >50% of market share.

4Q07: Go figure.