Saturday, June 03, 2006

Intel may suffer losses in 2Q06, 3Q06, 4Q06, 1Q07, 2Q07, 3Q07

For Intel, the common scene for the next 12 months will be impariment of goodwill (abandonment of acquired technologies and businesses), writing off inventory, writing off assets (old FABs, etc), one time charge for layoffs, price crash, unit share loss, etc, etc. Intel's stock holder equity will vaporize faster than that of Enron. GAAP loss is a certainty, but I also see operating loss from 3Q06 onward. I previously projected mass layoffs in 2007, but since Intel failed to execute a survival strategy, I projected a faster collapse in Feb 2006.

2Q06: 40% price drop, 20% volume drop, impairment on goodwill, one time charges for massive 16,000 layoff. GAAP loss in the bag. Expect Intel to warn soon. Currently, Wall Street expects Intel to earn $0.15 per share. Expect ($0.05) loss at minimum.

3Q06: Conroe ramps to 10%. 20% additional price drop of P4, mobile CPU price crash, 10% additional volume drop. Operating loss expected. Plus more impairment on goodwill, plus one time charge on inventory write off.

4Q06: Conroe ramps to 20%. Merom ramps to 10%. Further reduction of P4 and Core Duo price. Revenue flat from 3Q06 in a seasonally up quarter. Operating loss. AMD exit 2006 with 40% market share (run rate).

1Q07: Conroe ramps to 35% of desktop units. Revenue down more than seasonal as AMD's 65nm parts flood the market.

2Q07: Intel server market share drops to 40% as AMD ramps Rev H quadcore. Bulldozer hits hard.

3Q07: AMD FAB36 ramps to 20,000wspm at 65nm. FAB38 ramps. Chartered FAB7 ramps. AMD grabs >50% of market share.

4Q07: Go figure.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

I belive that all these predictions are true and you play on the stock market on Intel loss. Do you?

10:59 PM, June 03, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

So this means that if Woodcrest will flop (and possibly Conroe too). AMD will fucking rule the market , Intel's stock will take a huge dip and AMD will rise seriously.
So wait till Woodcrest/Conroe, if it flops sell Intel and buy AMD right?

4:51 AM, June 04, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why Intel started Dempsey production on the eve of Woodcrest (just 3-4 weeks as Intel says)? Dempsey is 65nm chip and so it uses the same resources as Woodcrest.
What do you think.

12:21 AM, June 05, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

Why Intel started Dempsey production on the eve of Woodcrest (just 3-4 weeks as Intel says)?
Because they are stupid.

1:55 AM, June 05, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sharikou, didn't you predict that AMD would exit 2006 with 50% marketshare? Why do you have it listed as 3Q07 now?

12:31 PM, June 05, 2006  

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