Monday, February 13, 2006

INQ needs to write what it is good at

Charlie Demerjian at INQ might be good at assembling PCes, but he shouldn't pretend to be a PC market analyst. AMD capacity is the least of all concerns for DELL.

Most idiots have an overblown impression of DELL. DELL has no 30% market share, moron! DELL is only slightly higher than HP in unit share. DELL ships about 10 million PCes per quarter. According to IDC, DELL's global market share was 17.2% in 4Q05, HP's unit share was 15.7%, DELL is only 1.5% more than HP in units, HP is doing AMD all the way. You got to have some common sense.

Demerjian's analysis based on AMD's share in non-DELL market is flawed, the dynamics is much more complex than that--DELL entering AMD business will definitely cause AMD to slow its growth in HP and whitebox market. But even if we took his approach but with the right numbers, we have

1) AMD's share in non-DELL market = 21.4/(100-17.2) = 25.8%

2) Assume after DELL-AMD deal, AMD will take the same share off the DELL pie, AMD will get 25.8% * 17.2% = 4.43%

3) Total AMD share after DELL deal is thus 21.4%+ 4.43% ~ 26%

Now tell me if FAB36 and Chartered FAB7 can supply the chips.

I also told you why DELL will spit at INTEL and kneel to AMD soon.

1 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sharikou,

Your math is flawed...

If you take 25.8% of the non-Dell market and add in 25.8% of Dell's market you get 25.8% of the entire market...

5:14 AM, February 13, 2006  

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