Saturday, January 21, 2006

Injured, Joe Osha started bashing INTEL

Accoding to this:

"In posting the weakest Q4 revenue result and Q1 outlook since the bursting of the bubble, Intel has made it clear how much competitive ground the company has lost to AMD. The extent of the losses has exceeded our expectations," Merrill Lynch analyst Joe Osha wrote in a research note on Wednesday.

Joe Osha made himself a fool by downgrading AMD to sell on the eve of INTEL Q4 earnings report. Joe Osha has a buy rating on INTC. I bet many investors lost money thanks to Joe.

As the Q4 2005 data shows, AMD is winning the hearts and wallets of American consumers, who always get the newest and best computer technology. The people in the third world provinces are still sticking to the INTEL brand, but the trend will propagate soon, in less than a year, we will see a global shift to AMD64.

As we can see from INTEL's Q4 2005 report, INTEL sales in the Americas dropped 10% y/y to only $1.8 billion. We can estimate that 85% of INTEL's sales were overseas. INTEL's 4Q05 sales in Asia-Pacific(excluding Japan) increased 16% over Q4 2004 to $5.1 billion, but was flat compared to Q3 2005, indicating a halt of its growth in the region, probably due to AMD's advances in China and India. Right now, AMD simply does not have the resources to have a presence in more provincial regions of the 3rd world. But those markets, though small individually, add up to a large percentage of nearly 40% (I estimate China was 10%, 50%-10% = 40%), those regions are INTEL's last safe haven and hideout.

Looking foward, AMD will grow share in Japan due to the implementation of the JFTC recommendations that banned INTEL deals excluding AMD. AMD will continue to grow substantially in China, the world's second largest PC market, as all top 3 Chinese PC makers have signed up with AMD due to customer demand for AMD64. The Internet is speading the message that INTEL is outdated. And the crumbling of INTEL stock is free advertisement for AMD -- I bet many CIOs across the world own INTEL stocks, and are busy dumping INTC to reduce losses.

8 Comments:

Anonymous bbbl67 said...

I wouldn't go so far as to say that the third world "provinces" haven't yet discovered AMD, afterall in China, the two largest manufacturers, Lenovo & HP, are at 80% and 60% AMD, respectively.

1:43 PM, January 21, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Once a customer switches to you they 'stick' to you amd must have vastly superior chips to get customers to switch and this bodes very well for them and very bad for intel in 2006 and beyond regardless of what the people with huge stakes in intel stock say...

1:54 PM, January 21, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

With $800 billion foreign reserve and men in the earth orbit, China is hardly a 3rd world country.

5:37 PM, January 21, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

China os very heterogeneous. The coastal cities are relatively modern, while the interior is still very much 3rd world. It has an GNP about that of Italy with 25 times the people with 2/3 of the population as rural farmers.

7:04 PM, January 21, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

If you look at the Purchasing Power Parity, it's a different story http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ch.html

Italy is certainly no match to China however you look at it.

7:48 PM, January 21, 2006  
Blogger Jeach! said...

You've also got to keep in mind that not only is the stock going down, Intel has been buying back it's shares at an alarming pace:

2004: $ 7.516 billion in buyback
2005: $ 10.637 billion in buyback

PAST: $ 54.422 billion (cummulative since 1990)
FUTURE: $ 25.000 billion (approved for future)

With all the 2005 and 2006 buy-back pressure, you'd thing the shares would rise.

Net Institutional Purchases have risen (surprisingly), but insiders (Intel execs) are dumping them (691,879 shares sold in last 6 months).

See

Intel site, and
Yahoo Finance

Jeach!

11:26 AM, February 03, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

damn you sharikou. Don't post your blogs like it's legitimite news. Your pumping on yahoo finance cheapens AMD's hard work.

1:53 PM, March 22, 2006  
Blogger Mike Scher, PhD said...

Activism, or incompetent analysis? Joe Osha from Merrill Lynch does it again:

On Jan. 21 in Journal of Pervasive 64 bit Computing, Sharikou, Ph, wrote:”Joe Osha made himself a fool by downgrading AMD to sell on the eve of INTEL Q4 earnings report. Joe Osha has a buy rating on INTC. I bet many investors lost money thanks to Joe.”

Now, on May 19 when Dell announced the plans to use AMD chips on the high end, when Marty Seyer, senior vice president at AMD said "I do not know of any other server customer that started at the high end and did not go wider with the product line", and only one day after AMD launched their Turion 64 X2 - the very fast dual-core chip for laptops, Joe Osha does it again: He reiterated a "sell" recommendation on AMD.

With this type of either activism or incompetent analysis, more and more people wonder why these “analysts” like Joe Osha don’t go to Las Vegas to get a gambling job? This would fit them anyhow better, and will lower the noise of useless analysts.

1:13 PM, May 19, 2006  

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