Refuting Arnold Frisch's Article at SeekingAlpha

The arrogant tone in Mr. Frisch's article is typical of Intel. But face the reality.

In the past decade, Intel has become a simple copycat of AMD technologies. AMD invented AMD64 (x64), multi-core x64, HyperTransport, ccHT, EMC (embedded memory controller), to name a few. Intel copycatted each and every one of these AMD innovations, without even acknowledge AMD's technological leadership. Intel can do this with impunity because of the cross-licensing agreements with AMD.

But AMD innovation in the APU arena finally leaves Intel in the dust.

AMD's control of the 3 gaming consoles is testimony to the APU paradigm shift. Anyone who failed to realize the importance of these developments have very little understanding of the ongoing convergence in computing. Any Inteler who fails to acknowledge the significance of this watershed development is in denial.

Intel has very little left technology wise, though it can still exercise monopoly power in x86, the industry is shifting away from that market.

Intel can still brag about its process technology, but even in this area, Intel's lead is shrinking. The FinFET Mr. Frisch mentioned is not invented or owned by Intel, it's done by university researchers. Other FABs are rolling out FinFET faster than Mr. Frisch claimed. TSMC will start 16nm FinFET chips in late 2013. GlobalFoundries will start 14nm FinFET production in late 2013 in their state of the art FAB8.


The author is naive to assume a faster processor must take over the slower one. Not so. Measure ARM against Atom, even though the Atom is slower than AMD Brazos, the Atom is faster than ARM. Why people are buying Apple IPads with ARM inside? People buy systems, not CPUs. An slower ARM CPU plus fast Apple iOS is much better than a faster Atom CPU plus crashing, bloating MS Windows.

What Intel lacks over the past decade is system level innovation. The stuff Intel is bragging about, the FinFET implementation, is indeed physics. But everyone else is using the same tools made by Applied Material and the like, Intel has no inherent advantage in using someone else's machinery. TSMC and GloFo are buying the same tools. Google TSMC FinFET, and GlobalFoundries FinFET 14XM, and enlighten yourself on the world out there. GloFo has the brain power of IBM research behind it, superior to anything Intel.

Right now, AMD is leading one of the convergence trend: GPGPU+CPU. Intel is at least two generations behind AMD in that regard. That's why both Xbox 720 and PS4 will be on AMD, with eight AMD64 cores and a supercomputer strength GPGPU, interconnected with hUMA.

What's more important is that Microsoft operating system and application software are being written specifically for AMD hUMA, which means Intel is out of the game.



Ref: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1447081-structural-change-in-the-mobile-processor-marketplace-intel-wins-arm-amd-lose?source=yahoo