Sunday, September 03, 2006

DELL to use 20 million AMD CPUs in 2007

As I projected, AMD will exit 2006 with 40% market share (run rate), leaving Intel at roughly 55%. We will see AMD surpass Intel by 3Q07 in market share.

It's just the beginning. Also, there is a shortage of Turion chips in the channel right now. DELL is sucking a lot of AMD production. I projected by 3Q08, DELL will be close to 100% AMD. By then, even K8L will be low end. AMD's 45nm chips with the next-next gen killer technology will rule the world.

Intel? It will be BKed by then, unless it quickly layoff 80% of its workforce to conserve cash.

I was reading a recent edition of the Linux Journal. Large Opteron ads were everywhere, all those companies are touting their 8P 16 core servers and workstations. There are a couple of Intel Xeon ads, limited to low end 2P.

Intel is so outdated.

37 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have a question for you. Do you actually have anything invested in Intel?

From my point of view, if you are so confident that Intel is going to be bankrupt in 2008 why don't you put your money where you mouth is, so to speak? I would suggest that you take a few grand and short Intel stock now so you'll get a sizable return if Intel bankrupts as you say in 2008. If you are so confident and keep saying the end is getting near then shorting Intel shouldn't cause you to lose any sleep at nights. We'll see then if you are the next Warren Buffet.

9:20 PM, September 03, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sharikou wrote:
"I projected by 3Q08, DELL will be close to 100% AMD."

OMG! I am an AMD fan and anti-Intel, but I just could not accept that extreme view, 100% AMD in Dell.

I wonder if he has gone nuts recently with: Intel needs to lay off 80% people, and going BK in 5-7 quarters.

-Longan-

1:37 AM, September 04, 2006  
Anonymous Neso said...

It is not related to the story, but something struck me today.While i was reading some linux guy benchmarks on loading two processes on separate cores and how Athlons were faster, somthing was wrong. Do you remeber when anand was promoting his own multitasking benchmarks at the time, but they are nowhere to be found in conroe beating x2????

Maybe i haven't read trough all of the benchmark from anand (i hate conspiracy in any form) but quick look says 3d rendering, pc worldbench.. e.t.c. but there is no multitasking scenario 1 or 2 or 3 for that matter. What hapened?? Maybe you will know?

2:15 AM, September 04, 2006  
Anonymous Green Nose said...

But who cares?

Did Dell using 20M Intel CPUs do anything great for Dell?

Did Dell using 20M Intel CPUs (at rock bottom prices) do anything great for Intel?

The answer is NO to both questions.

Dell going to AMD doesn't say anything other than AMD has the lower price.

With so much of AMD's production tied up serving one giant non-innovative company, how is that really good for AMD?

There will be more emphasis at AMD on making moribund chips for a moribund PC maker.

In many ways, Dell is nothing more than a big anchor sucking AMD down into the depths of mediocrity.

It really is a matter:

Dull is dead. All hail the new Dull!

7:24 AM, September 04, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Did Dell using 20M Intel CPUs do anything great for Dell?

Did Dell using 20M Intel CPUs (at rock bottom prices) do anything great for Intel?


Did you haver heard of market share?

9:53 AM, September 04, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

RE: Green Nose

You failed to see Dell still has a huge base of formerly Intel-Only corporate accounts and AMD stands to gain some of the large volume deals.

10:00 AM, September 04, 2006  
Blogger Kalle said...

"DELL to use 20 million AMD CPUs in 2007"

As Intel said, it will deliver about a million CPU's by the end of year and you said they are basically unavailiable.

Wouldn't that mean that the 20M AMD's over a whole year is awfully little?


"I projected by 3Q08, DELL will be close to 100% AMD"

Wouldn't Intel be BK'd for long time by then already?

I'd say that if Dell is alive by then it will have at most 40/60 of AMD/Intel stock.

10:22 AM, September 04, 2006  
Anonymous Simmayor said...

Hi Sharikou,

You are being unrealistic! I agree with you that AMD is in a much better position than Intel right now. But to say that Intel will BK is total nonsense.

You are always the first to react on Rahul Sood´s Blog. He thinks that AMD will grow further and take 50% of the total CPU market.
I think he is right.

And you with your insights should also know he is right!
Sim

11:48 AM, September 04, 2006  
Anonymous Green Nose said...

"Did you haver heard of market share?"

Some people are just so stupid.

Intel had lots of market share.

Did it help them?

Ever hear of the "success trap"?

When AMD is making mediocre chips for mediocre machines, where will the impulse to innovate come from?

It will NOT come from Dell.

Maybe Sun. But Sun will never make machines for the vast armies of corporate zombies.

When AMD and all its fanbois celebrate to high heaven the fact that the world's least innovative computer company has chosen their chips... for 50%+ of their moribund computers... it pretty much says AMD's innovative days are over.

1:40 PM, September 04, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

I agree with you that AMD is in a much better position than Intel right now. But to say that Intel will BK is total nonsense.

My Intel BK projection is based on simple elementary math. Now, dispute my projection with numbers and facts.

Rahul is playing politics, I am not. I simply do the math and logic.

1:43 PM, September 04, 2006  
Blogger Pop Catalin Sever said...

Sharikou check this out:

"The average desktop PC sale price in July was $550, down $644 year over year. The month also marked the first period ever when more than 50 per cent of all PCs were sold for less than $500."

http://www.vnunet.com/vnunet/news/2163452/intel-holds-marginal-lead-amd

Hmm I wonder how many conroes will be in systems in the 500$ price range to be able to sustain Intel's curent market share :D

2:13 PM, September 04, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

Hmm I wonder how many conroes will be in systems in the 500$ price range to be able to sustain Intel's curent market share :D

Intel is totally finished. BK is inevitable.

Intel execs are total retards, hey triggered a nuke war they can't win. Their ASP was $150 and they attack AMD with a price war, which had a ASP of $100.

2:40 PM, September 04, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://www.vnunet.com/vnunet/news/2163452/intel-holds-marginal-lead-amd
"The analyst firm put Intel's July market share at 53 per cent, up slightly from last month's 51 per cent.

Preliminary data for August indicates that Intel improved its lead to 58 per cent. The figure does not include online sales and units sold to enterprises."

I don't think an improvement of 13.725% over 2 months will lead them to bankruptcy anytime soon.

3:15 PM, September 04, 2006  
Blogger Sharikou, Ph. D said...

I don't think an improvement of 13.725% over 2 months will lead them to bankruptcy anytime soon.

You need to look at the overall picture. Intel is carving a piece here to fix a hole there. It's an impossible job. That's why Intel has to do mass layoffs.

3:49 PM, September 04, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Intel moved up 3.92% from June to July in retail, that' without price cuts and 'carving'

4:36 PM, September 04, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I still can't believe what a bunch of idiots Intel's strategic management is. They have billions worth of P4 crap inventory, yet decide to pump their next gen proc Conroe like crazy months in advance, before anyone could actually get one of the Conroes.

Way to make the world believe your P4's are crap (they are), that'll certainly help you get rid of that ridiculously high pile of inventory. Worse than that, what a great timing to start a pricewar, now they're almost giving their P4's away. AMD can sustain a price war easier than Intel because of lower average cost of making a CPU. Anyone understands this, anyone but Intel management I guess. They started a war they shouldn't have. They can't win.

Honestly, I'm not even bashing Conroe, my next rig will be a C2D, but that doesn't change the fact Intel's management is retarded.

This stuff is just too funny, or maybe it's just sad.

5:47 PM, September 04, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This is kind of off topic, but lately, you've just been posting anything pro-amd, anti-intel, as if this is a news site. Please slow down and write this as a blog(journal) so that we won't have to comment on 5 different articles written on the same day:)

6:10 PM, September 04, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

LOL the PhD pretender lays another and you flies love it.

20 Million.. out of 250million total market.

0 sum game, they sell to Dell they lose a higher margin sale to Gateway and HP. Selling to Dell is like selling to Walmat.. it hurts your margin.

INTEL on the other hand will cut a limb on Tuesday and be a billion leaner in cost.

Its AMD that will go bankrupt...

Jokes on the PhD pretender

A real PhD

7:07 PM, September 04, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Its amazing how much stock intel has already lost because of AMD. 57% profits and not getting any better. It didn't just happen magicly or was just made up. If you all read the news you would know AMD had done this and still is.

And the reason why Dell won't sell intels soon is that Intel cut off their partnership with them recently and screwed them over if you didn't know. Intel doesn't want to have anything to do with dell.

AMD saved Dell. As soon as they run out of intels to sell their only supplier will be AMD. Atleast some of us are smart enough to see the light of day who back up peoples truths. You can oviously see a company dieing here. 57% profit loss in the past 4Q is a BIG PROBLEM. Wile AMD ganes money from ATI's GPU markit witch is half of the GPU line. Intel loses far more money.

Now that AMD will not allow ATi to sell products to Intel. This seriously hurts Intel and Invidia is safe because they act neutral and supply both companies. Wile intel for some stupid reason wants to make SLI impossible with ATi GPU's and conroe incompattible with ATi chipsets. They are seriously hurting themselfs.

What logic is there to cut off great manufactuers. Doesn't make any sense only that Intel wants to try and reclame the GPU market but with what I don't know because they are never going to compare to even the lowest end GPU lines. They have little experionce in making Video cards. And no experionce in making decent videocards. Intel GPU equals way worse then FX5200 performance. A FX5200 owns a intel GPU any day.

Dell is saving themselfs because the only place they can get open arms to anymore is from AMD. They are more then happy to give them cpus. But DELL is buying a lot of AMD's cpus witch is good for AMD's profit.

AMD has HP, SUN, DELL, ATi, IBM, and many others buying from them and in partnership with them. Nvidea atleast 50% for both AMD and Intel there. But ATi is fused with AMD now and makes up its share too don't forget what ATi makes now AMD makes and is combined into stock. Not sure about the other partnerships but AMD's posission is far better then Intels. Intel is trying to be intependint with Apple. Thats all they really have. This will not be enough to complete with AMD's ways.

7:15 PM, September 04, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

“Green Nose said...
But who cares? “

Intel cares. 20M CPU loss is 60M or more parts lost to Intel, It’s a big deal.

8:02 PM, September 04, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=34145

We are in extreme danger of AMD LT's exploding here is the complete list of laptop models you should be consirned about.

Start List:
None
End List:

Take extreme action...












Your AMD will never be exploding on you, but your CONroe will. lol Funnyist thing I ever seen. They got jokes for intel up in the penut gallary.

8:51 PM, September 04, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Federal Government is still 95%+ Intel and not seeing any movement towards AMD. Corporate America is the same. Consumers, HPC and gamers are AMD's mainstay but they just can't buy enough to make a big difference. Intel execs and marketing knew this year would be a challenge but it would get better as time went on. The only reason they're doing the layoffs is to satisfy wall street.

9:08 PM, September 04, 2006  
Blogger Bruno Dieter Chan said...

http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=34145

Off topic but fun read.

9:25 PM, September 04, 2006  
Blogger Bruno Dieter Chan said...

"When AMD is making mediocre chips for mediocre machines, where will the impulse to innovate come from?"

Surely u referring to the P4 Prescott?

9:29 PM, September 04, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Inquirer says 65nm AMD chips are on schedule

http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=34147

2:02 AM, September 05, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Did you haver heard of market share?"

Some people are just so stupid.

Amd had lots of market share.

Did it help them?

Ever hear of the "success trap"?

When Intel is making mediocre chips for mediocre machines, where will the impulse to innovate come from?

It will NOT come from Dell.

Maybe Sun. But Sun will never make machines for the vast armies of corporate zombies.

When Intel and all its fanbois celebrate to high heaven the fact that the world's least innovative computer company has chosen their chips... for 50%+ of their moribund computers... it pretty much says Intel's innovative days are over.

«««« Intentionally changed see the original!

I think it’s impressive that suddenly all the CPUs selling and manufactured by Intel are all superior to the current AMD offering.

There are no more Celeron, Pentium 4 and Pentium D. Just Core 2 Duo.

And all of the Core 2 Duo are superior to any thing that AMD have, from the 6300 up to the 6800, all run perfect the very important world wide used application, super Pi, and much cheaper than anything currently selling.

Go Intel fanatics! Very good. You all say Sharikou is crazy, but you are as crazy, or crazier than he is. Try to do one thing next time when you write a text, substitute the words that say Intel with AMD and vice versa. See if makes sence!

9:59 AM, September 05, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

A real phony PhD said...LOL the PhD pretender lays another and you flies love it.

20 Million.. out of 250million total market.

0 sum game, they sell to Dell they lose a higher margin sale to Gateway and HP. Selling to Dell is like selling to Walmat.. it hurts your margin.

INTEL on the other hand will cut a limb on Tuesday and be a billion leaner in cost.

Its AMD that will go bankrupt...

Jokes on the PhD pretender

A real PhD

So, AMD's market share is around 21% and has been growing. Around this time next year excluding the Dell deal, they'd probably be up to around 25%. Dell being 20 million out of 250 million total market share, AMD just gained 8% market share. So that 25% become 33%. Not bad. Plus, and this is the biggest thing, AMD will now have a strong share of the business PC market, something they have struggled to gain market share in. Intel will be lucky to have over 50% market share by then end of '08. Get used to AMD everywhere.

10:56 AM, September 05, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey guys AMD today went up from 24.68 to 25.92 +1.26 (5.11%)

That explains us alot.

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=amd&hl=en

12:55 PM, September 05, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

>>Inquirer says 65nm AMD chips are on schedule

Can't wait for AMD's new 65nm chips to come out. :P

1:04 PM, September 05, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

" Anonymous said...

Hey guys AMD today went up from 24.68 to 25.92 +1.26 (5.11%)

That explains us alot.

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=amd&hl=en

12:55 PM, September 05, 2006 "

up by 6.33% by now
AMD is recovering FAST after its plungue to 15.25, its now on 26.22

4:06 PM, September 05, 2006  
Blogger N4CR said...

"When AMD is making mediocre chips for mediocre machines, where will the impulse to innovate come from?"

Mediocre 4P+ opterons that are sitting up there with a brand new architechture revamp from an opposing company while having very little tweaks themselves [opterons]?

5:49 PM, September 05, 2006  
Anonymous george said...

they got the better preforming sempron that is way better than anything intel has at that price. AMD K8L will crush the beast!!! intel will be crushed into the ground

11:44 AM, September 06, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"I think it’s impressive that suddenly all the CPUs selling and manufactured by Intel are all superior to the current AMD offering.

There are no more Celeron, Pentium 4 and Pentium D. Just Core 2 Duo."

and did you know that Intel is still producing these cpus until next year's end?
like we said before, intel as planned and will only force users to get up to 20% of the market using CORE based technology ( conroe, woodcrest. merom ) the rest, you would be lucky buying a super energy eater netburst cpu.

7:00 AM, September 07, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

according to the Inquirer, the new core2 based chips will form 20% of Intels production at end of 2006

Out of which 70% will be woodcrests!!!! 20% conroe and the rest memrons.....

http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=34222

7:25 AM, September 07, 2006  
Anonymous DoggieHowser said...

anonymous said:
"according to the Inquirer, the new core2 based chips will form 20% of Intels production at end of 2006

Out of which 70% will be woodcrests!!!! 20% conroe and the rest memrons.....

http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=34222"

So sharikou wasn't so far off when he said 80% will be based off the older technologies which are inferior to AMD's 3 yr old offerings (32 bit notebooks, Netburst desktops and servers).

And the remaining 20%? Well, to give Intel credit.. runs better in benchmarks, but how about some real world multi-tasking?

Check out...
http://www.ppcnux.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=6552

Hmm...

8:18 AM, September 07, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"I think it’s impressive that suddenly all the CPUs selling and manufactured by Intel are all superior to the current AMD offering.

There are no more Celeron, Pentium 4 and Pentium D. Just Core 2 Duo."

and did you know that Intel is still producing these cpus until next year's end?
like we said before, intel as planned and will only force users to get up to 20% of the market using CORE based technology ( conroe, woodcrest. merom ) the rest, you would be lucky buying a super energy eater netburst cpu.


I was being sarcastic...

9:40 AM, September 07, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

super energy eater netburst cpu

Of course, per a recent and unmentioned on this forum announcement:


"The PDs will change their CPUID from F64 to F65, and the stepping will be known as D-0, up from the old C-1. The only thing that will affect you is it dropped the power from 130W to 95W, a massive change that is too late in the game to make a difference on the high end."

On the low end however, all the 6XX and 9XX parts between July and EOL are running 27% cooler than before- still warm, but not obscenely hot either.

Source:
http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=34149

References:
1. Product notification 106404-01 on July 17th for Pentium D 9xx
2. Product notification 106205-00 on August 24 for Pentium D 6xx

3:18 PM, September 07, 2006  

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