AMD fully executing the kill strategy I proposed
AMD changed the rule of the game. It's called x2. On server, the game is 4P, on desktop, the game is 2P. In 3rd world, it's affordable 64 bit (32 bit x2).
1) 4x4 will start well below $1000 and become a main stream platform, which will permanently pin Intel at half the performance. We should be able to get two x2 3800+ or X2 4600+s that will frag Con XE 6800+ by up to 80%, at lower cost. Once we get to K8L, we will have 8 cores cranking. 4x4 will open a new era in personal computing: from 1P to 2P. Just like AMD64 did to server computing: moving the main stream from 2P to 4P, and pushing Woodcrest down to the ultra low end.
2) Major price slash on Socket 754 Semprons (starting at $38) to halt the Celeron flood in the 3rd wolrd
3) we already talked previously about the low cost dual core priced below Intel's ASP.
Well, AMD and Intel execs receive my regular briefings on strategic analysis. Whether they arrived at similar conclusions independently before or after my proposal is another question.
posted by Sharikou, Ph. D. @ 8/03/2006 09:11:00 AM
39 Comments:
Its nice to see the price come down, but they still say, or have not said otherwise that its still FX only...
"Apparently the concerns were that since it will require Athlon FX processors an entry-level machine would be well over US$1,000, with higher-end varieties running much higher."
Also...
"AMD has made a committment to selling entry-level products based on the 4x4 platform starting "well under $1,000.""
Were your x2 3800+ or X2 4600+, originally designed for the 4x4 platform?
Maybe someone could clarify this for me, thanks.
AMD is levrageing there strengths, because of HT they can pin intel to the wall, because with there FSB they can coppy but at much lower preformance, just like the Pentium D xxx.
And how will it be in any way good for one company to control the whole x86 CPU market?
"Yes, but an AMD monopoly won't be as bad as an Intel one!" some people might say. To this, I would say that robbing a convenience store isn't as bad as robbing a bank, but that doesn't mean it's okay to go around robbing convenience stores!
Well, AMD and Intel execs receive my regular briefings on strategic analysis. Whether they arrived at similar conclusions independently before or after my proposal is another question.
Your 'briefings', eh?
Any grade school smartypants could have decided to price Semprons comparatively with Celerons.
Yet you feel that you've made a fantastic judgement call and that AMD and Intel read your 'briefs' and may even possibly listening to you?
No doubt AMD doesn't even take you seriously. I don't know who you are emailing over there, but I'm quite certain their 'delete' button's paint is wearing off because of you.
I'm cracking up. You are so full of yourself that you're beyond sane. Like the crazy homeless guy that emails NASA about rocket designs from the nearest libraray every day.
Or is Hector your buddy from doctorz skool?
""Yes, but an AMD monopoly won't be as bad as an Intel one!" some people might say. To this, I would say that robbing a convenience store isn't as bad as robbing a bank, but that doesn't mean it's okay to go around robbing convenience stores!"
That analogy is f*cking stupid.
Well an 3800+ cost now 161.99$ on tigerdirect.com. Acording to lastest TomsHardware test an X2 3800+ beats an Intel 965EE (Extreme Edition) an some benchmarcs (especialy games) and is in the 5-10% performance range on other tests.
And 965 EE costs 1048.99$ on NewEgg.com (tiger doesn't have it).
That gives AMD an astonishing 650%+ better performa/price ratio in the same performance range. Read that again 650%+ better performance/price on the same performance range CPUs!!!!!!! Now beat that Mr. Intel!
Not only that but AMD has lauched low power variants for their A64's. With a eficient 3800+ having an thermal envelope of 35W (yeah 35 tha's right)
http://www.xbitlabs.com/articles/cpu/display/amd-energy-efficient.html
Wich gives you an 4x4 system using two X2 3800+ processors with TDP of no more than 70 Watt !!!!
Beat that again Mr. Intel!!!
Bye Bye Intel!!! I for one won't be missing you!
P.S. Apple looking to use AMD procs ;)
http://weblog.infoworld.com/enterprisemac/archives/2006/08/apple_finally_g.html
doc, please do another one of those calls between paul and mike. i miss the humors. thanks.
AMD Athlon 64 X2 Energy Efficient:
http://www.xbitlabs.com/articles/cpu/display/amd-energy-efficient.html
http://www.hothardware.com/viewarticle.aspx?articleid=854&cid=1
Can't wait to see the same test with 65nm CPU !
AMD Athlon 64 X2 Energy Efficient:
http://www.xbitlabs.com/articles/cpu/display/amd-energy-efficient.html
http://www.hothardware.com/viewarticle.aspx?articleid=854&cid=1
Idle (X2 90nm vs C2D 65nm) -> http://www.xbitlabs.com/images/cpu/amd-energy-efficient/cpu-idle-1.png
Can't wait to see the same test with 65nm CPU !
We should be able to get two x2 3800+ or X2 4600+s that will frag Con XE 6800+ by up to 80%, at lower cost
Can you stop saying that it's misleading. AMD has said that only special FX processors will be used. Yes you can build a 4x4 system spending less than $1000 for CPUs but thats because AMD is releasing new lower cost, lower-end FXs. No 512k models can be used because they only have 1 HT link. 1MB models are going to be rebranded FXs since they actually do have 3HT links.
Idle (X2 90nm vs C2D 65nm) -> http://www.xbitlabs.com/images/cpu/amd-energy-efficient/cpu-idle-1.png
Can't wait to see the same test with 65nm CPU !
Yes and as soon as you do anything on the CPU, Conroe uses less power than the 65W X2s and not much more than the 35W X2s. Intel's 65W TDP is much more than AMD's 65W TDP afterall.
One thing needs to be pointed out from the Xbit labs test. Consider this:
However, for the dedicated AMD fans I would like to mention a few facts that may change the attitude to the last chart. The thing is that S&M, just like many other tools creating ultimate processor workloads, use special floating-point operations. And it was fine for CPUs on K8 or NetBurst microarchitecture. However, Core 2 Duo processors do not get loaded to the full extent with these utilities. We had to go through a number of different burn-programs to realize that there are a few old ones that do the job much better than S&M, prime95 and others.
That set off alarm bells for me. How do we actually know if they loaded down the Core2 CPU properly in all the tests? I'm not saying they tried to intentionally mislead, but it made the tests suspect.
Intel crowd seemed more contrite lately. I thought that daily bad news ongoing for months would give anyone a complex, but not the Intel crowd. Intel is already technologically bankrupt and needs goodwill from the press to compete on paper. I’m very perplexed on how a seemingly educated crowd can read this and other blogs and still make the goofy rebuttals.
If you see most of the best companies on the planet aligning with AMD, why is that? Yesterday Dell announced 1.2 million boxes with AMD’s inside, you should ask yourself why? Intel has 4.3 billion in overstock, why? When you hear things like Intel stuffing the channels, what do you think about? When you hear about exciting technologies like HT and Zram, what are your thoughts? When you discover Intel is years behind (undisputable) in architecture, what are you thinking?
I’m not telling you what to think, I’m just wondering what you’re thinking and why?
"Yes and as soon as you do anything on the CPU, Conroe uses less power than the 65W X2s and not much more than the 35W X2s. Intel's 65W TDP is much more than AMD's 65W TDP afterall."
You shouldn't have reached that conclusion based on just the S&M results.
If you go google around other Athlon 64 X2EE reviews you'll find in almost all cases it consumes less system power than Conroe. (Given the same drive/memory/graphics/network are used, it's the system power that matter here - don't forget that AMD's 65W include its memory controller.)
Yo PhD imposter and fanboys...
If you see most of the best companies on the planet aligning with AMD
Yes ATI a winning company unites with AMD? DOn't make me laugh. ATI is merging because it can't compete on its own againt nVIDA in graphics nor INTEL in chipsets. Oh.. did I notice they don't make money either. Joining two money losing organzation. A recipe for failure.
Yes Dell another company that has dissapointed for the past 3 quarters as their direct sales model has run out of steam. HP and others have fixed their manufacturing systems and compete well now. Dell has no retail presence. To think somehow offering AMD will fix this is laughable. Anoter company that is no longer viewed as a leader joins with AMD.
Lastly we come to AMD; dropped prices 50%. Ouch tell me folks what does dropping your revenue by 50% do to their profits. I don't recall them making 500 million last quarter. Ouch.. they are headed for a loss. Got to suck capital exansions and absorb the depreciation of their 65nm factory.
AMD just got their benchmark leadership kicked away. They got their power leadership blown away in the same tests. Any questions go look at TOm's review today. Sharikou will claim as always another cheating slight of hand by INTEL and no 64bit. Same old story. He sounds like INTEL did in the old netbust days.
Now the PhD pretender tells how a 4x4 can beat INTELs dual core. How is this suppose to impress me? Its like my boy telling him how he watched four bullies beat up on our neighbors two boys. Sorry not impressed.
4x4 equals twice the silicon area sold at 1/2 the price. Another money losing proposition for AMD.
Not surprising from a company that has a track record of not making money
"I’m not telling you what to think, I’m just wondering what you’re thinking and why?
I think most of the so called Intel fan boys are actually - petty Intel share holders , who are trying their bit to bring Intel out of its death bed. They probably have no clue of even what is discussed here ..a classic example being "The DOCTOR" ..lol
mad cow disease said: "That analogy is f*cking stupid"
WOW man... It pays to go to school.. Just as the Doc!
Dr. Sharikou,
I must have missed the link you posted to your referenced articles by IT Journals.. Could you please re-post them in an article.. I'd love to read your in depth analysis of the IT industry.
Thanks Again.
Hey, All IT Fans:
I created a new site for unwinding.. Visit my blog site and drop me a line:
itkitty.blogspot.com
That set off alarm bells for me. How do we actually know if they loaded down the Core2 CPU properly in all the tests? I'm not saying they tried to intentionally mislead, but it made the tests suspect.
When I read that passage it actually set off alarm bells for me. That tells you that Core 2 Duo has a lot of spare processing power. A program that fully loads a K8 or Netburst processor doesn't even fully load Core 2 Duos. It just shows how strong the architecture really is.
Sharikou - I'm surprised to see you are no longer publishing your Newegg Topr indicator to track who's winning the price war; it seems to be such a relibale indicator. The other day AMD had 3 of 5 top slots and today it is 4 of 5.
As when you posted you previous update it was 5 of 5 AMD chips, is AMD starting to lose some ground on the price war?
Or perhaps the Newegg Top 5 is not really a very good indicator and you just chose to use it beacuse it happened to suit your argument at the time?
Just curious to hear some more of your insight in this specific area. Care to opine?
Anomymous coward wrote
"Yes ATI a winning company unites with AMD? DOn't make me laugh. ATI is merging because it can't compete on its own againt nVIDA in graphics nor INTEL in chipsets. Oh.. did I notice they don't make money either. Joining two money losing organzation. A recipe for failure"
Oh fanboy you failed to mention the fact that Sun is aligned with AMD , IBM is aligned with AMD.
Sometime ago Henri Richard said , all the eco-system is working with us against Intel.
Perhaps you consider both of the heavy weights as losers
So get the facts straight you Fannie.
BTW you fannies are like a herd of sheep.It's just impossible to tell one Baaaaaaa from another.
Ok, I'm a big fan of what AMD has done in the last few years, but proposing that they fight with Intel on the Celeron front does not add up for me.
AMD does NOT have the capacity, so let Intel produce all the $35 chips, and let AMD fight for the high margin stuff.
If we were talking about a small die like the old Athlon, especially if it were produced at 90 or 65 nm, then yes, AMD could compete for the low end and still make a good profit. (Which reminds me, why did AMD not do a die shrink on the old Athlon, they would be VERY small, use much less current, clock much higher, and still not canabalize the higher end Athlon 64's)
As when you posted you previous update it was 5 of 5 AMD chips, is AMD starting to lose some ground on the price war?
No. Intel reacted and slashed P4D 940 prices and some morons bought. ewegg.com is a very good indicator. I expect AMD to drop X2 4200 price to deny Intel's 940 dump.
When the Conroe is clearly shown a crown, Intel would have win by pumping Conroe. But still Intel pump its 'INTELligent heater chip' PD like crazy. Looks like immaturity of 65nm on Intel side. They should have woo the world having the 1st 45nm but kept quiet on having very low yield in the back. And kept those monkey worshippers proud that they have better manufacturing.
"So you self admitt that AMD needs 4 core solution to beat a singel C2D X6800."
LOL. Do remember that Intel need to have at least 4MB of cache to be faster than a, oh, 3yrs old chip? Do remember that Intel need to, again, simply slap two die together to have some temporary mockup 4P solutions to challenge 4x4? I just wish Intel good luck.
Hehe a bad news for Fannies
http://www.informationweek.com/hardware/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=191601574
if intel had a 4x4 soulution it will be creamed because of the difrenses in archatecture. lets see 2 imc + dedicated chanals in each direction + 4 cores will cream intel, just like opteron creames Woodcrest. 4X4 is just a big change in rules for procsessors. this is BIG.
"Yesterday Dell announced 1.2 million boxes with AMD’s"
Dell announced this? I'm not sure that's too accurate...unless Dell now owns the Inquirer.
Before folks start flaming, I'm not saying the story isn't true, but folks around here sure have a creative way of reading through things and interperting how they want.
Inquirer is the same site that had an "inside" contact that talked about reverse hyperthreading, is it not? People tend to believe it when the story favors their company of choice and dismiss it as bunk when they post an article in favor of the other.
I tend to disbelieve anything Inquirer says (regardless of whether it is pro-AMD or pro-Intel) unless they are quoting a more reliable source on the web or person from either company (and not their own "discussions" from unknown sources).
if intel had a 4x4 soulution it will be creamed because of the difrenses in archatecture. lets see 2 imc + dedicated chanals in each direction + 4 cores will cream intel, just like opteron creames Woodcrest. 4X4 is just a big change in rules for procsessors. this is BIG.
Well, dual FSB helps with bandwidt but it won't be exactly good solution when you have to go through NB to synchronize caches.
Of cource around the same time as 4x4 ships quadcore Core2's should be released so basically Intel would have the same number of cores but will only need one socket MB and single cooler (==less noise).
Of cource as it will most likely use a single FSB channel it won't have as good bandwidth to all cores as 4x4 with separate RAM for each CPU and it will still have to go through NB to sync the two separate dualcore CPU's.
When I read that passage it actually set off alarm bells for me. That tells you that Core 2 Duo has a lot of spare processing power. A program that fully loads a K8 or Netburst processor doesn't even fully load Core 2 Duos. It just shows how strong the architecture really is.
Alot of spare processing power? Does that even mean anything? Not being able to fully load a conroe is a bad thing - it means that its more difficult to achieve and/or maintain peak IPC. That means that all of that spare processing power goes to waste. Although I suspect that all the newer processors will be similar.
duploxxx wrote:
"Idle (X2 90nm vs C2D 65nm) -> http://www.xbitlabs.com/images/cpu/amd-energy-efficient/cpu-idle-1.png"
Wow. You linked an image. Not an article. Not a review. Just a graph, no text, no summary, no conclusion.
I'm tired of seeing all of these random fragments of review that basically claim AMDs lineup is somewhere in the vicinity of being competetive with C2D.
Here's some full length articles, with real analysis done by unbiased (or perhaps slightly biased against Intel, if anything) engineers. No bull, just good ol' fashioned benchmarks:
http://www.tomshardware.com/2006/07/14/core2_duo_knocks_out_athlon_64/
http://www.informationweek.com/news/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=190400181
http://www.pcworld.com/article/126342-1/article.html
http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2006/07/14/intel_core2_duo/
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1895,1989018,00.asp
http://www.gdhardware.com/hardware/cpus/intel/conroe/X6800_E6700/001.htm
http://www.gamespot.com/features/6153900/p-3.html
http://enthusiast.hardocp.com/article.html?art=MTExMCwsLGhlbnRodXNpYXN0
http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=33024
http://www.sharkyextreme.com/hardware/cpu/article.php/3261_3620036__12
All of these are well respected technical news sites. Of course, Sharikou will probably say that they are all biased... It doesn't matter though, the sheer number of reviews, and the number of those reviews that show Intel not simply outperforming, but dominating AMD is very convincing of the truth.
Yes they are respectable tehnical sites, and C2D top of the line are the best processors of the moment from a performance point of view.
But tell me did all of those respectable sites "where you cand get one"?
It's better allrigt, cheaper, power efficient and its beeing used to hide Intel's previouse crapy performance in the eyes of unawary.
But there's one thing you can't understand, C2D cant't sustain Intel when is only 10% of its total manufacturing capability as declared by Intel(although I suspect less...)
If Intel woud have started with at least 20% of its manufacturing capabilities building Conroes I would have said that AMD's position is in danger. But they didn't they are using their 65nm facilities to manufacture P4's 9xx series using 95 nm ??? Why on eart would theye do that if they could have build Conroes instead? Well I think Intel has a slight yield problem with C2D ... among others ...
AMD fully executing the kill strategy I proposed
YOU proposed :D
Some idiot writes
But there's one thing you can't understand, C2D cant't sustain Intel when is only 10% of its total manufacturing capability as declared by Intel(although I suspect less...)
If Intel woud have started with at least 20% of its manufacturing capabilities building Conroes I would have said that AMD's position is in danger. But they didn't they are using their 65nm facilities to manufacture P4's 9xx series using 95 nm ??? Why on eart would theye do that if they could have build Conroes instead? Well I think Intel has a slight yield problem with C2D ... among others
You a retard like the host blogger?
INTEL has converted big time most of their 65nm production to Core2 Woodcrest, Merom, Conroe. The cheap PentiumD.. that is stuff already made and probably their old 90nm dual-cores.
If you didn't know.. it takes a quarter or so to push a wafer from starts thru end of fab then you got to assembly it, test it, then ship it to the OEMs.
You think they started ramping before they confirmed all the bugs were gone. Don't think so. You ramp after you've debug.
No idiot would leave 10% of their capacity on something so good.
You think AMD has ramped K8L sight unseen on a broken low yielding 65nm process? No.. they wait till its validated, the OEMs have checked out the chipset, motherboards and qualified it all. Then you ramp.. it you idiots. AMD will be quarters away too. K8L if there are no samples now will be 9months to a year before you see volume.
Make sense idiots?
Let me know if you don't understand and I will educate you idiots. I won't be so high handed and try and hide behind IQ trying to turn lies into reality in my own fantasy world like your's truely PhD... LOL
INTEL IS COLLAPSING UNDER ITS ON WEIGHT AND WILL GO BANKRUPT EXTREMELY QUICKLY. THERE WILL BE NO TOMORROW FOR INTEL!!!!! THEY HAVE THE WORST BALANCE SHEET. I AM SEEING THIS IT WiLL NOT MATTER IF INTEL IS BETTER!AMD IS MORE EFFICENT IN GETTING THINGS DONE AND WILL NOT GO BANKRUPT!!!!!
is it me or AMD mocked intel for having two dual cores chip called kentsfield? Isn't that what they are trying to do with 4x4?
is it me or AMD mocked intel approach to platfromization by stating they are pro-open platform company? Isn't AMD becoming a platform company with the ATI move?
Is it me or AMD is as old as Intel and went into every business that Intel went into?
is it me or Sharikou and his fannies keep comparing Pentium 10 year old procs to last years Athlons?
Is it me or PIII is kicking the ass of the most modern AMD offering?
is it me or sharikou's self proclaimed PhD failed its defense? Yep, I was their when it did not pass!
Is it me or Mad Cow Mike vocabulary is limited to several words?
Is it me or Sharikou got fired by a contract agency for a dumm ass reason?
Is it me or the Khalif looks gay in his picture?
is it me or sharikou is so bitter that his mission in life is to bad mouth Intel from his mommys attic?
I do not think it is me!
"I do not think it is me!"
sigh... how sad, you are wrong there (mostly).
"is it me or sharikou is so bitter that his mission in life is to bad mouth Intel from his mommys attic?
I do not think it is me!"
Is it me, or are you a f*cking moron? No, it's you.
" Anonymous said...
is it me or AMD mocked intel for having two dual cores chip called kentsfield? Isn't that what they are trying to do with 4x4?
is it me or AMD mocked intel approach to platfromization by stating they are pro-open platform company? Isn't AMD becoming a platform company with the ATI move?
Is it me or AMD is as old as Intel and went into every business that Intel went into?
is it me or Sharikou and his fannies keep comparing Pentium 10 year old procs to last years Athlons?
Is it me or PIII is kicking the ass of the most modern AMD offering?
is it me or sharikou's self proclaimed PhD failed its defense? Yep, I was their when it did not pass!
Is it me or Mad Cow Mike vocabulary is limited to several words?
Is it me or Sharikou got fired by a contract agency for a dumm ass reason?
Is it me or the Khalif looks gay in his picture?
is it me or sharikou is so bitter that his mission in life is to bad mouth Intel from his mommys attic?
I do not think it is me!
1:36 AM, August 05, 2006 "
Diferences, kentsfield will be for super high end, I wouldnt be surprised if they are above 1,000 US EACH ONE..
4 x 4, let's say you buy one X2 3800 with dual hypertransport ( let's say in the next versions designed for 4 x4 ) at let's say 180-200 US...
180 x 2 = 360 right?
mobo.. let's say 200 US.. thats 560..
now Kentsfield let's say 1,200 US for it ( maybe even more )
then add the classic super expensive intel mobos ( 250 US )
thats 1450 US :>
no idea how much disipation kentsfield will have.. but man, considering intel... id say you will need watercooling :P
Post a Comment
<< Home