Thursday, April 19, 2007

K10 starts shipping in Q2

AMD strikes back.

I predict that 3D gaming will be 90% faster on AMD platform. The R600 is only optmized for AMD and that gives a 50% lead.

AMD's 1Q07 was largely due to its failure to adjust processor prices. I have said long time ago that AMD must create a dual core Sempron to prevent Intel from dumping the Pentium Ds.

AMD's inventory reached a staggering $900 million at the end of 1Q07, while this indicates a potential problem for some, it offered AMD the golden oppurtunity to flood the hell of the market with massive number of the Athlon X2s at ultra low prices. The prices keep falling, you can get an X2 for $60. I expect the X2 6000+ to be sold at around $105 once K10 is out.

Thus, starting from Q3, we will see the collapse of the prices of the K8 and Core 2 architecture. All K8 and Core 2 will be sold at below $120. The result will be a huge Intel inventory build up, leading to another price crash, Core 2 CPUs will be sold at $65, and K8s will be sold at $55. K10 will make all the money.

With the K10 onslaught, the overcapacity of the x86 market will lead to the BK of Intel by 2Q08.

40 Comments:

Blogger ililpfxhlu said...

I could've sworn Hector said late summer and Henri said Christmas for the desktop.

2:25 PM, April 19, 2007  
Blogger Tim said...

Links? Proof?

2:26 PM, April 19, 2007  
Blogger PENIX said...

ililpfxhlu said...
I could've sworn Hector said late summer and Henri said Christmas for the desktop.


Summer and Christmas both fall in Q2.

2:29 PM, April 19, 2007  
Blogger ililpfxhlu said...

Oh, well in that case nvm. BTW, drugs are bad.

2:32 PM, April 19, 2007  
Blogger Tim said...

"PENIX said...
ililpfxhlu said...
I could've sworn Hector said late summer and Henri said Christmas for the desktop.

Summer and Christmas both fall in Q2. "

What the holy bleeding hell are you talking about?!?!?!

Q1 Jan-Mar
Q2 Apr-Jun
Q3 Jul-Sept
Q4 Oct-Dec

Given that AMD is reporting financials based on the above schedule - how in the hell can they both fall in the same quarter..

You just keep proving yourself to be more of an idiot with every post....

2:33 PM, April 19, 2007  
Blogger PENIX said...

Tim said...
"PENIX said...
What the holy bleeding hell are you talking about?!?!?!


You are correct. I mistakenly read Q2 as H2.

2:47 PM, April 19, 2007  
Blogger Roborat, Ph. D. said...

sharikou said: "AMD strikes back".

with massive loses?
with a 31% GM?
with $900M worth of backlog inventory?
with another Barcelona promis?

you should change your statement into:
"AMD will probably strike back sometime in the future..., disclaimer: forcast may change due to market conditions"

2:55 PM, April 19, 2007  
Blogger DaSickNinja said...

Got links?

6:07 PM, April 19, 2007  
Blogger nanikore said...

It's too bad Q2 2008 is coming up so fast... I was looking forward to years of comedy instead of just a coupla more months.

6:15 PM, April 19, 2007  
Blogger Giant said...

Hector Ruiz said Q3 launch for Barcelona in the earnings call. R600 is delayed again, this time to "late May".

So Sharikou, why don't you tell us how great AMD's 1Q was? 1.6bn profit at Intel vs. 600m loss at AMD? Who was going BK again?!

I'd also be very interested in hearing your thoughts on AMD's market share losses. Most of your predictions for Intel are coming true for AMD! 1) Massive operational losses, 2) Dropping ASP, and 3) market share losses

6:36 PM, April 19, 2007  
Blogger gdaf123 said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

6:47 PM, April 19, 2007  
Blogger lex said...

Another "Ph"ony "D"octorate post

THis post makes as much sense as if the PhD posted yesterday. "AMD starts making money"

Sharikou, why even bother with this kind of post.

When you claimed laptop fires were due to INTEL CPUs. It was a good laugh and proven false. AT least there was some event you could choose to interpret in some totally illogical way.

Your claims last year as to INTEL BK in 07 because of Netbust and skeptical C2 roadmap. Again there were events you could choose to try and interpret in an illogical way without considering other relevant data. And again you were incorrect.

This one takes the cake of illogical crap you spew in a random and unsported manner that generates no dialog or discussion. If this is your attempt to get some golden nugget from someone in the know it also fails. Where is even the proof based on some logical deduction of available data?

You again prove yourself worth as the "Ph"ony "D"octorate. And continue to provide me much entertainment value at the amazing stupidity the wWW allows out now.

6:51 PM, April 19, 2007  
Blogger Scott said...

Penix said: "You are correct. I mistakenly read Q2 as H2."

Then how did you mistakenly type it too?

7:32 PM, April 19, 2007  
Blogger Tim said...

Maybe he meant Q2 of '08 - he seems to like that quarter....

7:46 PM, April 19, 2007  
Blogger Shelby said...

Just as I said yesterday, paper launch in Q2, product being delayed by several weeks into the actual channel, R600 delayed and high end R600 cards canceled (due to 8800 Ultra and the motherboard suppliers said no to the power requirements), run rates on Barcelona will not even hit 50% until late Q2 2008 since they will be outsourcing production in order to save costs in their own fabs... Listen to the truth Sharikou, especially from somebody who knows who you really are... ;)

8:08 PM, April 19, 2007  
Blogger Randy Allen said...

Is it true that Sharikou actually used to work for Intel, as some people on Rahul Sood's blog suggested some time ago?

AMD is in a sad state at the moment. If the R600 is launched in "late May" that will be more than a full six months behind Nvidia and the 8800 series.

9:20 PM, April 19, 2007  
Blogger lex said...

Worked at INTEL till they discovered he was a "Ph"ony "D"octorate

9:21 PM, April 19, 2007  
Blogger Giant said...

The fastest R600 card has been canceled already because of thermal problems. The R600 will be slower than the 8800 GTX that's already been out for nearly six months. The 8800 Ultra will CRUSH r600 all over.

Nvidia is in an enviable position. They frag Ati at every price point.

When Ati finally paper launches R600 Nvidia is already waiting for Ati with the 8800 Ultra.

In fact, if R600 gets delayed any more they'll be facing the Geforce 9!

11:10 PM, April 19, 2007  
Blogger Giant said...

Things just keep getting worse for AMD: http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=39050

No one wants AMD's ancient 90nm spaceheater garbage. Soon AMD will have no customers left.

11:19 PM, April 19, 2007  
Blogger netrama said...

Giant (the lier who lives out of the few cents paid by Intel) said...
No one wants AMD's ancient 90nm spaceheater garbage. Soon AMD will have no customers left

AMD shares are > 40 % in desktop and Mobile Retail

Please stop spamming here.

Sharikou your blog has been noted to have extremly high activity by such Intel paid d*cks. This is happening since last 2 to 3 months time. And they all say the same thing over and over again, like clock work. Are you going to do something about it ??

12:02 AM, April 20, 2007  
Blogger Randy Allen said...

AMD's market share is shrinking. Intel's market share has once again exceeded 80%. AMD is finished. Over $1bn in losses over the last two quarters. What does Intel have to show over the same two quarters? Oh, just a meager $3bn in profit!

All AMD has is large piles inventory:- Old spaceheater 90nm technology and 65nm technology that is lower than 90nm!

AMD BK Q2'08.

12:15 AM, April 20, 2007  
Blogger Ho Ho said...

netrama
"AMD shares are > 40 % in desktop and Mobile Retail"

it is much closer to <20% actually.

12:33 AM, April 20, 2007  
Blogger Alexander said...

You guys do realize that his whole site is an act and all of you have been unwitting participants in a quite remarkable social experiment?

I don't know what Sharikou real name is, but how dare you call him a moron? The man is a genius. I think the chances are pretty good he actually has (or is working on) a PhD... in psychology. He knows exactly what buttons to push without making it too obvious that his sole purpose is to push the buttons, and then he stands back and observes the (over)reaction. Its one thing to say that sky is purple and be ignored... getting people to blow gaskets trying to prove to you that THE SKY!!! IS !!! BLUE!!! YOU MORON!!! I HATE YOU!!!!!!!! GAHH!!!!.... well, that my friends, is an art. He must have the same thrill as an editor who publishes an article about a law mandating all drinking water be replaced with pig's blood and watching angry "We will not stand for this!" letters pour in.

I mean, look at the people who visit this site: 99% of them come here not to get the news (because they KNOW there is no news here, but they still come), but to get righteously outraged and feel better about themselves. Reading this blog makes them feel smarter, more savvy, lets them get that anger at life as a whole off their chests. What they are doing is the equivalent or renting a WWII Nazi propaganda film... only instead of laughing at the absurdity of it, they get upset, start arguing with the narrator as if he can hear them and in the end up smashing the TV. If I was writing a physiology book, I'd be fascinated in them as well.

Of course, the other 1% is just as interesting - namely the true believers. Ones that read this blog and take every word as a gospel. They feel better about themselves because their otherwise ridiculous views get validated.

And of course, there is the author looks into the cage where the two groups fling feces , smirks and takes notes.

So next time you read something meant to sound outrageous and actually do get outraged, climb on the soapbox and yell about the color of the sky until a stoke and a heart attack ask yourself: Could it be that I am reacting exactly the way someone WANTS me to react? Many people claim to read this site purely for entertaining reasons. So do I. Of course, I know that the entertainment is not in the blog entries, but in people’s reactions to them.

1:05 AM, April 20, 2007  
Blogger Tanrack said...

Man he is good! From this:"We hear that Sound Physics has been buzzed for quite some time, and we are massaging our contacts to bring you as much detail as possible. It seems that R600 GPU will be less CPU-bound than it has been in the past, since a lot more parts of the scene will be calculated and rendered on the GPU itself. " he knows R600 is optimized for AMD only and that it will result in a 50% lead. I guess that this was benchmarked along with the "40% faster" results

2:31 AM, April 20, 2007  
Blogger Tim said...

"netrama said...
Giant (the lier who lives out of the few cents paid by Intel) said...
No one wants AMD's ancient 90nm spaceheater garbage. Soon AMD will have no customers left

AMD shares are > 40 % in desktop and Mobile Retail

Please stop spamming here.

Sharikou your blog has been noted to have extremly high activity by such Intel paid d*cks. This is happening since last 2 to 3 months time. And they all say the same thing over and over again, like clock work. Are you going to do something about it ??"

Wow - my idiot meter pegged when I read your latest post. Maybe you should pull you head out of your ass and so some research before you post this sort of junk..

6:19 AM, April 20, 2007  
Blogger Evil said...

So now that AMD's CPU's can't perform as well as you would like, its now up to ATI's products to boost AMD.

You know what? You can use ATI's products in Intel motherboards as well.

If AMD is stupid enough to optimize ATI's products ONLY for the AMD platform they are going to very much cause NVidia to do the same thing...

My god Ph(ake)d is really starting to scramble now as his house of cards starts tumbling down...

I very much enjoy how people can just lie on blogs and then when taken to task for it by people who actually are in the KNOW, the original poster (AKA Ph(ake)d), they do nothing but babble.

yet people (AKA fanboi's) continue to think he is some type of god of CPU knowledge.

6:49 AM, April 20, 2007  
Blogger Bruno Dieter Chan said...

http://www.legitreviews.com/article/490/2/

Well something to look at.

8:18 AM, April 20, 2007  
Blogger pezal said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

8:39 AM, April 20, 2007  
Blogger pezal said...

"Sharikou your blog has been noted to have extremly high activity by such Intel paid d*cks. This is happening since last 2 to 3 months time. And they all say the same thing over and over again, like clock work. Are you going to do something about it ??"

Yea.. i agree with netrama. I suggest you ban all the intel fanboys from posting any comments so that there will be no interrupter in this site. ;-)

8:43 AM, April 20, 2007  
Blogger Only AMD said...

Nice Article for the intel fanbois!

Just keeping with it.

http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=39074

9:20 AM, April 20, 2007  
Blogger Only AMD said...

Another link for Intelbois!!!

http://www.dailytech.com/AMD+Talks+Details+on+K10/
article6918.htm

9:31 AM, April 20, 2007  
Blogger Randy Allen said...

Wow. Intel's second slowest Core 2 Duo gets beaten by AMD's second fastest desktop CPU! Grab a mid-range E6600 and see it thrash anything, even a 6000+ with ease.

It's good to know that no one wants AMD spaceheater garbage.

http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2007/04/20/intel_vs_amd_q1_07/

People are clearly flocking to the superior speed and low power consumption of Core 2 Duo. AMD has a pathetic 11.1% market share.

AMD BK Q2'08.

9:40 AM, April 20, 2007  
Blogger Ho Ho said...

Starting at next week, you can get e6420 for the same price as e6300 os now.

9:54 AM, April 20, 2007  
Blogger Tim said...

I predict 2Q08 when Intel is still alive and well and AMD is finally catching back up Sharidouche will make up yet more insanely ridiculous crap...


See...anyone can do it....

12:12 PM, April 20, 2007  
Blogger Shouden said...

While I agree with the outlook you give in this post, I must point out that your numbers are either rounded up, or slanted by bias. Based on our own internal testing, the R600 performs only 43% faster on AMD Motherboards, not just with AMD processors as your article leaves us to believe. I can also attest to the fact that the R600 is considerably faster, than current competitor products on the market today, but that is not exactly saying much, as Nvidia will probably have new chip set out by the time the R600 arrives (if it ever does). If they move fast enough they may take back the performance crown, but it won’t mean much unless they get Intel to allow them to make motherboards for their new processors, thus letting this “Uber” card be used by the other 90% of the planet.

12:56 PM, April 20, 2007  
Blogger Ho Ho said...

"Based on our own internal testing, the R600 performs only 43% faster on AMD Motherboards"

Talk about buggy products. Jeesh

1:31 PM, April 20, 2007  
Blogger middle_of_the_road said...

3D gaming will be 90% faster on AMD platform ???

I'm convinced especially as you were so on the ball with the following :-

Jan 16, 2007 - Intel's ASP went up. AMD's ASP dropped 14%, yet revenue grew 3% sequentially. Clearly, AMD's market share is close to 30%, leading to a run rate close to 40%.

Jan 02, 2007 - Time flies. It's 2007 and we are only a few months away from true quad core.

Nov 06, 2007 - After AMD 4x4 launch, the desktop computing landscape will be the following. At the high end, we have AMD 4x4 with performance supremacy, it will be the only high end machine, costing $2000 or more.

Oct 14, 2006 - AMD retail presence remains strong. Just went to circuit city. There are 13 AMD desktops, 5 Intel. There are 7 AMD notebooks (mostly Turion X2s) and 7 Intel ones.

Oct 09, 2006 - The math is simple. AMD is expected to exit 2006 with 40% market share(run rate)

Sep 27, 2006 - In the coming quarters, Intel will suffer massive losses due to lower unit share and drastically lower ASP.

Aug 03, 2006 - 4x4 will start well below $1000 and become a main stream platform, which will permanently pin Intel at half the performance.

June 27, 2006 - Now, it seems GAAP loss for Intel's 2Q06 is quite certain. Going forward, I projected seven quarters of operating losses from 3Q06 onward.

1:55 PM, April 20, 2007  
Blogger abinstein said...

I do think Sharikou's right about one thing, that is AMD didn't lower its prices fast enough.

4:59 PM, April 20, 2007  
Blogger Louis said...

Sharidouche, you are an idiot. Comments like this make it too obvious that you have a PHony Doctorate:

"AMD's inventory reached a staggering $900 million at the end of 1Q07, while this indicates a potential problem for some, it offered AMD the golden oppurtunity to flood the hell of the market with massive number of the Athlon X2s at ultra low prices."

Yeah, its a golden opportunity if AMD were a non-profit charity (oh, wait AMD is a non-profit). A golden opportunity to flood the hell of the market??? WTF are you smoking Sharidouche? They will have to sell all this inventory below cost. You predicted this would sink Intel had all that pre-Conroe product sitting around and it didn't. However, it will be different for AMD since they won't have siginificant quantities of Barcelona product to ship in Q2 or even Q3 this year and will have a bunch of useless junk that no one wants. They will have to do this with just $1B cash. I don't care how you spin this, this is not good news or a golden opportunity for AMD.

It is really funny how many of Sharidouche's predictions turn out to be accurate as long as you replace Intel with AMD. I think I am seeing the pattern here... Intel bankrupt in Q2'2008 makes a lot more sense when you replace Intel with AMD in that statement.

I can see Hector Ruiz whoring himself by summer just to pay the bills... Not a pretty sight.

11:33 AM, April 21, 2007  
Blogger Louis said...

Penix said: "You are correct. I mistakenly read Q2 as H2."

Scott replied: Then how did you mistakenly type it too?

Great f***ing question Scott. I am sure Penis won't have the balls to answer that one.

11:37 AM, April 21, 2007  

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